Grandstander Power Rankings - Through Week 10

The Grandstander departs from the usual format today, and lists a Top Ten for the NFL Grandstander Power Rankings.  I will also include some selected commentary as well.

1. Eagles 8-1
2. Chiefs 7-2
3. Ravens 7-3
4. 49ers 6-3
5. Lions 7-2
6. Dolphins 6-3
7. Browns 6-3
8. Vikings 6-4
9. Jaguars 6-3
10. Steelers 6-3

Others receiving consideration: Bengals, Bills, Cowboys, Saints, Seahawks, Texans.

Now for the commentary, presented in bullet point form and in no particular order of importance.

• With the Eagles idle last week I was prepared to move the Ravens into the #1 spot had they beat the Browns.  I suppose that it can't be considered a surprise that the Browns beat the Ravens, but to score 33 points on what was perceived to be one of the better defenses in the NFL?  That was a shocker.  So, the Ravens not only don't move up, but they also drop below the Chiefs, who were also idle last week.
• The 49'ers, who had lost three in a row as Brock Purdy appeared to begin looking like the last player drafted two years ago, came back from their  bye week with a roar by laying a 34-3 beatdown on Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars.  The Jags were a team that I thought might move up this week, but that thrashing by SF puts those plans on hold for the time being.
• Three teams from the AFC North are in the top Ten, with a fourth knocking at the door.  This portion of the rankings will no doubt appear much different after this weekend with games between the Ravens-Bengals and the Steelers-Browns, followed by a Week 12 matchup between the Steelers-Bengals.
• Speaking of the Bengals, their loss to Houston dropped them out of the If-The-Season-Ended-Today playoff picture, and they now face back-to-back games with Baltimore and Pittsburgh.  It is not an exaggeration to say that these next two games are "must win" for the Bungles.
• Speaking of North, I have two NFC North teams in here, the Lions and the Vikings.  Detroit outlasted the Chargers on Sunday, and they appear to be the goods.  I'm not so sure about the Vikings over the long haul, but how can you not love the Josh Dobbs Story that is unfolding up in the Land of Hubert Humphrey and Marge Gunderson?

Then, as John Facenda once intoned, there are the Pittsburgh Steelers.  I admit that my inclusion of the Steelers in the Top Ten may be our provincialism and Fanboy blindness on my part, but, as the Bill Parcels cliche goes, "you are what your record says you are."  I've watched this team for all nine games, and I can't say how they are 6-3.  Much of the time, they sure don't look like a 6-3 team, and it often appears that their opponent is a better team.  However here is what they have going for them right now.

• While Kenny Pickett has not made anyone forget Big Ben, he has not thrown an interception in over 160 some passes, and the team does appear to respond to his leadership.
• In the last two games, they have rushed for 166 and 205 yards.  This comes after first round draft pick Broderick Jones was inserted as a starter at right tackle.  That can't be a coincidence.
• Their Defense.  While the team defense ranks low in the NFL in most categories, I say that this is a case of the three kinds of lies:  "Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics." (Per well known football analyst Benjamin Disraeli.)  The numbers say that they aren't great, but my eyes see TJ Watt and Alex Highsmith, other teams settling for field goals and not touchdowns, and a squad that forces turnovers at the most opportune times.  (See the last plays of the last two games.)

I don't know how sustainable this brand of football is, and I am still waiting for win by something like a 34-7 score, but until then, the Steelers fan is going to enjoy the ride while freaking out on RENEGADE.  Oh, mama!

Thoughts on Kenny Pickett

Kenny Pickett's career with the Steelers, which is so far halfway through his second season with the team and in the League, has been, at best a mixed bag.  His ability to mount fourth quarter comebacks - he's had six of them in his one and one-half seasons, has been remarkable.  The corollary to that, of course, is that his less than stellar performances in the first three quarters of games have put the Steelers in the position to need comebacks in the fourth quarter.  His passing statistics are, to put a kind face on it, unimpressive.  We are still waiting for that 3 TD/0 INT/300 yards performance in a blow out Steelers win from him.  National commentators have said that "he's not that good", and local sportswriters have been harsh in their criticisms, and talk radio hot take artists want to run him out of town.  Some are even suggesting that the Steelers play Mason Rudolph in his stead.

Criticism of him is fair, but then there are opinions such as this one from a Facebook post from a friend of mine, a fellow whose sports opinions I respect, that he posted in a thread after Thursday's win over the Titans:

As far as Pickett I think he is a middle-of-the-road starter and his replacement is in the draft in the next 2 years. He will make them bowl-eligible the next 2 seasons but not really much more than that. Doubt the playoffs are in his future. 

Here was my response to the gent:

So, you've already assigned Pickett to the scrapheap of mediocrity halfway into his second season? Just wondering if you were saying the same things about Terry Bradshaw midway through the 1971 season, because at that point, he was a hell of a lot worse than Pickett has been thus far.

I don't think that I need to add anything further.  I will also say that I am not suggesting that Pickett will go on to duplicate the career of Terry Bradshaw, but I am suggesting that some people need to tap the brakes a bit before they run Pickett out of town on a rail.

I can remember a time when quarterbacks took two to three years to develop.  Stand next to the coach during games, hold a clipboard, do your work in practice, and wait until you are fully seasoned to get your chance to play.   That philosophy doesn't apply anymore, largely due to economics, salary cap, and the value of contracts to highly drafted rookie QBs.  That doesn't make it any less true that a kid doesn't walk into the NFL and light it up as a QB in his rookie year.  Ben Roethlisberger did, CJ Stroud  appears to be doing it this season, but those guys are exceptions.    Aaron Rodgers sat on the bench behind Brett Favre for three or four seasons, and those of us in Pittsburgh who have been around long enough can remember the struggles of Bradshaw in his first several seasons.  Even in his fifth season, 1974, when the Steelers would win their first Super Bowl, Bradshaw was benched at the beginning of that season in favor of Joe Gilliam.

I admit that the fact that I watched Pickett play at Pitt for his college career and that I really WANT him to succeed as a Steeler is probably coloring my view here, but it is way, way, WAY too soon to, as I said above, "assign him to the scrapheap of mediocrity."  He at least deserves the rest of this season and probably all of next season before we can draw a definitive conclusion on him.  He may indeed become the next Terry or Big Ben, but we know from experience that guys like that come along once every forty years or so.  Or, he might become the next Neil O'Donnell, who, I remind you, took the Steelers to a Super Bowl once.  

Too soon to call him a failure is all that I am saying.

Grandstander Power Rankings - Week 9 - REVISED

I obviously experienced a major brain fart when compiling the Week 9  GPR earlier today.  Herewith is my revised and honest-to-God GPR for Week 9.

As tonight's Chargers-Jets game will have no impact on the Week 9 GPR, I thought I'd get these out early this week.  So, here we are If The NFL Used The Same Method As College Football.

1. Eagles
2. Ravens
3. Chiefs
4. Bengals

Knocking At The Door -  49'ers, Cowboys, Dolphins, Jaguars, Lions.

If you forced me to predict the Super Bowl participants right now, I'd go Eagles-Ravens.  Baltimore looking really, really strong.

Nine more weeks until the Playoffs begin.

The Return of the GPR!

 

With the release of the first College Football Playoff rankings this week, I thought that it would be a chance to bring back the Grandstander Power Rankings (GPR).  To refresh your memories, these are rankings If The NFL Used The Same Method As College Football.

Without further ado, I give you the first GPR of the 2023 season (through  NFL Week 8):

1. Eagles
2. Chiefs
3. Dolphins
4. Ravens

Knocking on the door in alphabetical order: 49ers, Cowboys, Jaguars, Lions.

Steelers at 5-3 (Not Sure How), and Other Football Thoughts

The Steelers defeated the Tennessee Titans last night 20-16 and bumped their record to 5-3, good for second place in the AFC North pending the games to be played this weekend.  The victory followed the team's tried and true 2023 formula:  a tenacious defense led by outside linebackers TJ Watt and Alex Highsmith, a key turnover at the end the game that sealed the deal, and yet another  fourth quarter  comeback led by QB Kenny Pickett.  This one was a 92 yard drive that culminated in a touchdown pass to Dionte Johnson.  It was Johnson's first touchdown since week 17 of the 2021 season.

The Steelers also did something a little different in this game from what we have become accustomed to - they scored a TD in the first quarter.  This was a  ten yard run by Najee Harris at the end of a length of the field drive to open the game.  Harris and Jaylen Warren also combined for 166 rushing yards, easily the best Steelers rushing performance of the season.  Both of them outgained Derrick Henry, as a matter of fact.

Despite all of that, the Steelers offense still leaves much to be desired.  Fourth quarter comebacks are fun and exciting, but how sustainable a formula is that?  Would it be too much to ask for something like a 38-14 win at some point?

A small bone to pick with the Amazon Prime telecast last night.  It became apparent from the pregame chatter with the Amazon Talking Heads and with the Al Michaels/Kirk Herbstreit announcing duo, that the main storyline of the game would be Titans rookie QB Will Levis, who had made his debut the week before and threw four TD passes.  Perhaps it's just Steelers Fan paranoia in me, but everything was framed around what Levis did.  Even when getting sacked by Watt or Highsmith, it was, "let's see how Levis can come back from this" kind of stuff.  Oh, well, that's showbiz, I suppose.

As for Levis, he appears to be pretty good.  He certainly outplayed Pickett for most of the game.  Until the fourth quarter that is, but had Kwon Alexander not intercepted that last pass, the ball appeared to be headed right into the hands of a Titans receiver for what would have been the game winning touchdown for Tennessee.  As I say, he appears to be pretty good, but he's played two games so far, so slow down on ordering that Gold jacket for him.

For the "OVER" betters....

The over/under on Steelers wins for the season was set at 8.5.  So, at the halfway point of the season, how is it looking for us OVER betters?  The Steelers have five wins with nine games remaining.  Can they go at least 4-5 to enable us to cash our tickets?

The five out of division games are home games with the Packers, Cardinals, and Patriots, and road games with the Colts and Seahawks.  Looking at things on this November 3, the Steelers should be favored or, at the least, short odds underdogs in at least four of those five games.

They have four AFC North games @Browns, @Ravens, and home and away with the Bengals.

They will not win all five out of division games, but I also don't think that they will lose all four AFCN games, as many predict.  I think that they could split the North games, and win three of the five other games, so a ten win season is not out of the question.  However, we have watched this team all season, so don't bet the house on any of these predicted scenarios, but I am liking my OVER 8.5 wager at this point.

My wager on Kenny Pickett to throw OVER 17.5 TD passes?  That appears to be money down the drain at this point.

For the weekend....

There are three really attractive match-ups for this coming Sunday in the NFL.

• Chiefs -1.5 over Dolphins in Germany
• Eagles -3 over Cowboys in Philly
• Bengals -1.5 over Bills in Cincy on Sunday night

Myself, I think that I would go with the favorite in each of those games.

Jack Suwinski and Kyle Schwarber

There were many time over the course of the last baseball season that I would ask my Pirates fans friends  "Just what exactly do we think of Jack Suwinski?"

For you non-Pirates followers out there, Suwinski led the Pirates in home run last season with 26 and was, in fact, due to the absence of Oneil Cruz all season, the Pirates only real home run threat.  I never had much faith in him because it seemed to me that whenever he was needed to come through for the team, he was more likely to strike out than hit a gap shot double or three run homer. 

My friend Fred Egler says that he us the exact type of player for whom PNC Park was built - a left handed power hitter, so that we need to be patient, and maybe he will become this decade's version of Dave Kingman, although to be fair, Suwinski has proven to be a much better outfield that Kingman ever was, an admittedly low bar to clear.

Pittsburgh Post-Gazette  Pirates beat writerJason Mackey has stated that Suwinski could become for the Pirates what Kyle Schwarber has become for the Phillies (and other teams).  Really?   

This called for a Grandstander Spreadsheet.

	Jack Suwinski 2023	Kyle Schwarber 2023	Schwarber 2017	Schwarber 2018	Suwinski 2022-23
AB	447	585	486	428	773
HR	26	47	30	26	45
RBI	74	104	59	61	112
K	172	215	150	140	286
BB	75	126	59	78	116
Batting Ave	0.224	0.197	0.211	0.238	0.215
On Base %	0.339	0.340	0.315	0.356	0.382
OPS	0.793	0.831	0.782	0.823	0.758

The first two columns compare the two players' 2023 seasons.   Schwarber is often praised because, while he strikes out a lot, he also draws a lot of walks, so his on base percentage offsets the negative aspects of all those K's.  In fact, Schwarber drew 51 more BB's than Suwinski, albeit with 140+ more AB's, but check out that On Base Percentage.  Nearly identical.

I also posted Schwarber's numbers for 2017 and 2018 when he was at the same relative point in his career as Suwinski is now.

So what does all of his say?   I have absolutely no idea.  In fact, I couldn't come up with anything cogent to say about it, and I almost skipped writing this up entirely. However, since I spent a good seven or eight minutes looking this stuff up and then putting in a spreadsheet, what the hell, put it out there and maybe somebody else can come up with some decent conclusions.

Upon further reflection, though, if it says anything, I guess it's that if you like the kind of ballplayer that Schwarber has fashioned himself into, then don't give up on Suwinski.  He may very well end up being that 40 HR a year power hitter who takes full advantage of that Clemente Wall in right field, and it will come at just about the time that the he becomes eligible for free agency, and we Pirates fans know what THAT means.

To Absent Friends - Tom Walker

 

Back in the summer of 1992, I had the pleasure of playing in the Pittsburgh Pirates Alumni Golf Outing (Blue Cross was and remains to this day a sponsor of that event).  Each foursome included a Pirates alumnus, or someone related the the Pirates organization.  Now at such an event, the Senior VP's and other assorted officers of the Blues get paired up with guys like Bill Mazeroski or Steve Blass or Jim Leyland.  I was paired up and rode in the cart with Tom Walker.

Mr. Walker was a very nice guy, but I had never heard of him, and in what I hope was a diplomatic manner, asked him what his connection to the Pirates was.  He told me that he had a brief career, mostly with the Tigers and the Expos, and at the end of his career, he went to spring training with the Bucs, didn't make the team and then retired from baseball.  Since he lived in the area, he maintained a relationship with the Pirates Alumni group to keep his hand in his former life.  I found him to be a very nice guy, very modest and unassuming, and it was a really nice afternoon on the course with him.  He also didn't mention and had no real reason to mention that he had a son named Neil who in that summer  was probably just graduating from Tee Ball to Coaches Pitch baseball.

Years later, through my association with SABR, I was astonished to learn that Tom Walker once pitched a 15 inning no-hitter in the minor leagues.  He never mentioned THAT during our round that day.  Me, well if I had once pitched a 15 no-hitter, at any level, I would have had "I once pitched a 15 inning no-hitter" embroidered on all my clothes.  I said that he was modest and unassuming.

In 2004 Tom's son Neil of Pine-Richland High School was the first round draft pick of the Pirates, and he went on to fashion a terrific 12 year career with the Pirates and four other teams, and now works for the Pirates as broadcaster and general baseball  ambassador in the region.   Around the time that Neil was drafted, we learned, or at least I learned, that while playing winter ball in Puerto Rico in 1972, Tom helped load the plane with relief supplies that Roberto Clemente was to deliver to Nicaragua and was planning on riding with him to deliver them that New Year's Eve day in 1972.  Clemente told him to skip it and spend the holiday with his family.  We all know what happened then.

One time, around 2008 or 2009, I had the opportunity to meet one of Tom's  other sons (I'll spare you the circumstances, and they don't really matter anyway).  Once I realized who he was, instead of asking about his now very well known brother, I told him the story of "I once played 18 holes of golf with your dad!"  He got a kick out of it.  Earlier this year, I got the chance to meet Neil Walker, and I told him the same story, and Neil loved it.   At that time, I didn't know that his dad was battling cancer, a battle that ended yesterday.

Usually when you hear of the passing of such folks, you feel bad, of course, but the passing of Tom Walker hit me deeper than just that.  

RIP Tom Walker and peace to all of the Walker family.

Father and Son

Six seasons

Tigers, Expos, Cardinals, Angels

191 games

18-23

3.87 ERA