Oscars Post-Mortem

So, they gave out the Oscars last night, and how can you write anything about it without focusing on the incredible screw-up at the end.

You know what happened: Faye Dunaway and Warren Beatty announced "La La Land" as Best Picture, the "La La Land" folks were all on stage making their emotional acceptance speeches, they were then told that no, they had not won, that Beatty was given the wrong envelope, and that neither Dunaway nor he had the aplomb to realize the mistake, and stop the proceedings (I guess that actors really do need scripts), and that "Moonlight" was actually the Best Picture of 2016.

Everyone was quite gracious about it, but I do feel bad that the people from "Moonlight" were robbed of that magic moment of hearing their name called for the big prize.  How that all happened may never be fully known, but as the hoary old Hollywood cliche goes, someone is never going to work in that town again.

My thoughts on the rest of the night:

• The opening number by Justin Timberlake was dazzling and fantastic.  Nothing else for the rest of the show topped it.
• Host Jimmy Kimmel's nine minute opening monologue was also terrific.  He nailed it.  After that, all the host needs to do is to keep the show moving and stay out of the way, and Kimmel did that as well as anyone.  However, note to all future Oscars hosts: Stop with the jokes about how long the show is running.  Bob Hope was doing that sixty years ago, and it ceased being funny after the first five or six years he did it.  Enough already.
• After the Best Picture announcement snafu, Kimmel was also great in taking the blame for it.  "I just knew I was going to screw this up.  I know that I'll never be back here again."
• To borrow a baseball analogy, the pace of play of the show was moving quite well right up until Viola Davis' long, drawn out, and tearful acceptance speech.  She was the equivalent of a Jeff Locke 37 pitch first inning, to use another baseball analogy.
• Speaking of Davis, her Supporting Actress victory was the closest thing to a lead pipe cinch leading up to the night that were was.  So, was her sense of wonder, and  tearful, emotional speech sincere, or was she "acting"?
• The bit with the people from the tour bus was wonderful. 
• The bit with the movie candy parachutes was fun. Once.  Doing it twice was pushing it, and doing it a third time was REALLY pushing it.
• Best dress of the night: Amy Adams.
• The "Inspiration" bits were nice, but why only three of them?  Of course to do any more would have really dragged out the show.
• I didn't predict her win, but I am quite happy that Emma Stone won Best Actress Oscar.  She's just so damn cute.
• Denzel Washington sure didn't look happy what Casey Affleck was announced as Best Actor.
• Damien Chazelle, you've won a Best Director Oscar at age 32.  Now, go out and buy yourself a tux that actually fits you.  I know that "skinny suits" are the height of hipster fashion these days, but he absolutely could not have been comfortable in that thing he was wearing last night.

As happens quite often, a terrific movie with a passel of nominations gets shut out completely.  It happened with "The Martian" last year, and last night it happened with "Hidden Figures".  The test of time is what will really determine what the best picture of any given year is.  What movie will we all most likely want to pull off of the DVD shelf ten or fifteen years from now? "Moonlight", "La La Land", or "Hidden Figures"?  Or something else entirely?  I am betting that everyone of us has seen "Caddyshack" and "National Lampoon's Vacation" more than whatever movies won for Best Picture in the year that they were released.

Oh, about my predictions.  I broke even at 5-5.  In the categories of Actor, Supporting Actress, Director, Original Screenplay, and Documentary Feature, I believe I had that.  Missed out on Picture, Actress, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, and Original Song.  So, it you bet with me, you didn't actually lose money.  However, no prediction season is a success if you whiff on the winner of Best Picture, and I haven't been right on that one since "Argo" five years ago.

The Winners!

Ali, Stone, Davis, Affleck

MLB Players Strike Out

The news came down this past week that the Major League Baseball Players Association rejected all but one initiative proposed by management that were aimed to speed up the pace of play of baseball games for the upcoming season.  By turning a deaf ear to these proposals, the players have said that they don't care about games lasting well over three hours (four hours once you get to the post season).  They don't care that lengthy games with loads of dead time will continue to turn off younger people, people who are needed to replace old guys like me when we, you know, die. They really just care only about themselves, but, hey, I guess that that is no real news flash.

Oh, one proposal did get approved: A pitcher will no longer be required to throw four wide ones when intentionally walking a batter.  When such strategy is called for, the batter automatically be awarded first base.  As John Mehno put it in his column today, that ought to cut off at least two, maybe three, minutes from the length of the season.

So, baseball fans will continue to be treated to the following:

• Josh Harrison stepping out of the batter's box, tapping his spikes with his bat, and taking two practice cuts after every pitch.
• Antonio Bastardo and Felipe Rivera taking 40 or so seconds to deliver every pitch.  It's a fact.  I timed these two guys at a late season game I attended last year.
• Just about every batter in MLB stepping out and adjusting his batting gloves after every pitch.
• Watch a manager take a slow walk to the mound, conferring with his infielders, catcher, and pitcher, wave in a left handed reliever, watching that reliever take a slow walk to the mound, take eight warm-up pitches (after he has been warming up for ten minutes in the bullpen; a relief pitcher should get one warm up pitch, two at the max, when he comes in just to get the feel of the mound), see that pitcher face the single left handed batter he was brought in to face, then watch that same manager do the same thing all over again when he removes that lefty relief specialist and brings in a right hander.   That is a LOT of time expended to face one single batter in a game.  It's why a lot of people bring books to the ball park, if they even come at all.
• And let's not even begin to talk about the time spent in replay reviews.

Before the Purists start screaming the usual "you can't put a clock on baseball" b.s., no one is saying that baseball should be anything less than a nine inning, twenty-seven out contest.  And there is a distinct difference between the "length" of a baseball game, and the "pace" of a baseball game.   Having a batter stay in the batter's box or having a pitcher deliver a pitch within a prescribed time limit is NOT putting clock on the game.  A three hour game played at a brisk pace is a lot different from a three hour game spent watching Josh Harrison tap his cleats time and again, and watching Clint Hurdle and Joe Maddon doing the continual dance with pitching changes described above.

Of course, the biggest culprit for these lengthy games are the interminable commercial breaks, especially during national telecasts and post season games.  That, however, is where the money comes from so it's not going to go away, so it behooves baseball and its players to figure out other ways to solve the problem.  Management seems willing to try.  The players, not so much.

Oh, and one other thing.  Post-season games and the World Series, the showcase events and the most important games of the season, will continue to end well after midnight in vast swatches of the country, and, as a result, will not be seen by millions of people. If that is not a concern to baseball and its players, it should be.

Oscars Thoughts and Predictions

I have been completely silent on the subject of the Academy Awards for a couple of reasons.  One, the nominations were announced when we were on vacation in Florida, so I was unable to strike while the iron was hot, as it were, and once we got back home, well, I just never found the time to do so.  Two, I have been unable to see all of the nominated performances, or even a lot of them, so I go on the theory that No Prediction is better than an Uniformed Prediction.

Still, what fun is that, so I've decided to blow some smoke anyway.  Here goes.

Nine films have been nominated for Best Picture.  I have seen four of them: "Hell or High Water", "Hidden Figures", "La La Land", and "Manchester by the Sea".  Of the remaining five, I do want to see "Fences", and I kinda sorta want to see "Arrival". "Hacksaw Ridge", "Lion", and "Moonlight" all fall into the category of "Didn't see it, don't wanna see it."

BEST PICTURE:  I am saying that the winner will come from among the four movies that I have seen.  If we used The Grandstander's standard of What Movie Am I Most Likely To Watch Again And Again Over The Years, then the winner would be "Hell or High Water" in a landslide, but I am going to call this one for another terrific movie, which is also one that I will watch more than once, "Hidden Figures".

ACTOR: Once again, I have only seen two of these nominees, Ryan Gosling and Casey Affleck.  I believe that it will come down as a race between Affleck and Denzel Washington.  Washington has already won two Oscars, but will he benefit from Hollywood reacting to last year's #oscarssowhite controversy?  Possibly, but I say that the Oscar this year goes to Casey Affleck.

ACTRESS: I have seen two nominated performances, Meryl Streep in "Florence Foster Jenkins", and Emma Stone in "La La Land".  I love them both, and both were great performances, but the buzz seems to be heaviest for Natalie Portman in "Jackie", and I say that Miss Portman takes home her second Oscar come Sunday night.

Supporting Actor: Again, only saw two of the five nominees, so this prediction is based solely on personal preference:  Jeff Bridges wins for "Hell or High Water".  Lucas Hedges, the kid in "Manchester by the Seas" was terrific, and I'd have no problem if he won, but Bridges was just SO good, and this award will be a way for Hollywood to honor this terrific movie.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Michelle Williams gave a wonderful performance in "Manchester By The Sea", but the one category that seems to be a slam dunk this year is a win for Viola Davis in Fences", so Davis it is.

DIRECTOR: "La La Land" was everybody's darling to sweep the Oscars this year, but in recent months, it has been hit with a strange and bitchy sort of Hollywood backlash.  I mean, have you read some of those "this movie really stinks" types of stories?  Unfair, but I think it will hurt the the movie, Ryan Gosling, and Emma Stone in the voting. However, Hollywood will honor this movie by naming Damien Chazelle as Best Director.

ORIGINAL SONG: The Oscar goes to "How Far I'll Go" from the movie "Moana" written and composed by Lin-Manuel Miranda.  Why? Because it was written and composed by Lin-Manuel Miranda, and at the age of 37, Miranda will now have achieved an EGOT (Emmy, Grammy, Oscar, and Tony), plus a Pulitzer Prize.  It's good to be Lin-Manuel Miranda.

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:  Never made a prediction in this category before, but what the hell, I am calling for Ezra Edelman's amazing five part, seven and one-half hour documentary, "O.J. Made In America" to win the Oscar.

And here are two more predictions for you.  Strictly semi-educated guesses on my part:

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Kenneth Lonergan, "Manchester By The Sea".

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: August Wilson, "Fences.

There you go.  Ten predictions will make it easy to calculate my winning percentage.  As always....Watch, But Don't Bet.

Seattle, Elvis, and Joan O'Brien

In anticipation of a trip to Seattle later this year, and always being a sucker for Elvis Presley movies, we settled in and watched this one last night.

This 1963 movie was set in Seattle at the time of the World's Fair in that city.  Lots of scenes of the Space Needle and the futuristic monorail system in place at that Fair.  Also - Surprise! - Elvis wooed several  different women (including future Batgirl Yvonne Craig), fell in love with one who resisted him (at first), got into two different fist fights, and sang ten songs.  In other words, standard fare for an Elvis flick.  I also have to say that even for the incredibly low bar of the typical Elvis movie, this one was Cheesy beyond belief, but what the hell, when you watch a movie from The King, you know in advance that you ain't getting "Citizen Kane".  

What interested me in this movie was the love interest played by actress Joan O'Brien.

O'Brien was an actress with whom I was not familiar, and she did not seem to be a "typical" Elvis love interest from his filmography.  So, I went to the Google Machine to do a bit of research.  O'Brien got her start in show biz as a singer, doing stints with several Big Bands, and even had a brief shot as a fill in for Lawrence Welk's "Champagne Lady".  She took a shot at acting in the late 1950's.  Her most well known roles were in "Operation Petticoat" (1959) with Cary Grant and Tony Curtis, "The Alamo" (1960) with John Wayne, and "It Happened At the World's Fair".  She was 27 years old when this one was made (Presley was 28), and it was reported that she and Elvis had a romantic fling when the movie was filming.  This was standard operating procedure for Elvis.  It is interesting to note that while Miss O'Brien came into show biz as a singer, she only sang a few lines in the closing number of "It Happened...."  With exception of Ann Margaret, I can't recall many female leads who did a lot of singing in the Elvis Film Canon.

(Joan and Elvis dining at the 

Space Needle in the movie.)

After "It Happened At The World's Fair", O'Brien appeared in only one more movie, a teen movie called "Get Yourself a College Girl" with Nancy Sinatra in 1964.  She did some guest spots in a few TV series, the last being in a show called "Valentine's Day" in 1965 after which she walked away from the acting profession.  She sang again for a little while with the Harry James Orchestra, but in 1968 she left show business for good in order to raise her two children.  She went on to have a successful executive career with the Hilton Hotel chain.

Joan O'Brien is still alive and turned 81 years of age this past Valentine's Day.

Maybe it's just me, but I find this kind of stuff interesting.

Spring Training Has Begun

Yes, Spring Training has been underway for one week now, and you are probably wondering, "Why hasn't The Grandstander  written about the Pirates yet?", or maybe you aren't wondering that, but the fact is, I am having a tough time getting my usual jolt of springtime optimism when it comes to our favorite baseball team.  The reason for that can be laid at the feet, I believe, of the Pirates themselves.

Consider that following a season when the team took a 20 game step backwards and which featured a trade deadline deal where the team gave up two highly touted prospects, not to obtain a key player to help them win games, win championships, or even get better, but to dump a salary (I am speaking of the Francisco Liriano to Toronto salary dump trade, in case you forgot), this is what transpired over the Winter Hot Stove Season:

• The team spent most off their time trying desperately trying to trade Andrew McCutchen, probably their most popular player, and easily their best player over the last ten seasons or so.
• Re-signed pitcher Ivan Nova, who despite two good months (5-2, 3.06) with the team, is still a pitcher with a career ERA north of 4.00.
• Signed free agent pitcher Daniel Hudson.  Hudson, who has had two Tommy John surgeries in his career, may well be a good pitcher, but at this point he is destined to be a seventh or eighth inning set-up guy.
• Obtained a bunch of no name pitchers in hope that Ray Searage can turn water into wine with them.
• Had to deal with a DUI incident involving Jung Ho Kang.  That's not the team's fault, but it sure has cast a pall over the off-season nonetheless.

That's it.  That's the list. If I left out any big blockbuster that inspires visions of overtaking the Cubs and Cardinals in the NL Central, I will be happy to be corrected.

Now, Spring Training has begun, and the main story seems to be gearing up all Pirates fans for what will probably be  final season, or maybe even the final half-season, of McCutchen's tenure with the Pirates.

Yep.  That ought to have people storming the PNC Park tickets windows.

And today, we have been treated to stories detailing Bob Nutting's annual address to the team, and his various tete a tetes with the media.

Of course, McCutchen's status is still Topic A, and Bob assures us that he "loves" Andrew, and hopes that he will "always be a Pirate", but well, you know, business is business, and sometimes things just don't always work out the way you want them.

Don't get me wrong.  Yes, Cutch underperformed last season, but at the age of only 31, I'd say he deserves the benefit of the doubt before he's written off as being done.  Also, no player should be untouchable, and if the team can be made better, anyone could and should be subject to being traded.  However, how confident are you that value on a par with what McCutchen has given the Pirates will ever be received in a trade for him?  And no matter what, he deserved better treatment than being dragged through the public prints and airwaves all winter as so much excess baggage that the team needs to jettison.

And one other nugget from Bob Nutting's interviews.  Since he has taken over as Chief Bigdome at 115 Federal Street, he has never, not once, taken a salary from the team. What a prince!

Oh, I am sure that the fires will still burn within me.  I think that the first televised game from Florida will be sometime next week, and I am sure that I will be planted in front of the TV set when it comes on, at least for a couple of innings, but it's going to take the players that they have - Marte, Polanco, Bell, Harrison, Cole, Taillon, and, yes, Andrew McCutchen - generating excitement for me on the filed of play to stoke those fires, because all the Front Office has done since last October is throw buckets of water on them.

For Your Viewing Pleasure.....

Catching up with some movies and TV, both old and new.....

Let's start off with this amazing documentary made by Ezra Edelman.  I recently, finally, got around to watching this via On Demand.  The film was made by ESPN Films.  It runs almost eight hours in length, and is shown in five parts.  I guess that you could say that the movie is "about" O.J. Simpson, his rise as an American hero, the murder of his wife and her friend, his arrest, trial, and acquittal, and his life after the trial leading up to his current incarceration in Nevada.  But it is also "about" so much more.  It is a history of the dealings and operations of the Los Angeles Police Department, race relations in Los Angeles throughout the twentieth century, race relations in America, and the criminal justice system.  

When you say "documentary" and "almost eight hours long" your eyes may glaze over and you may be tempted to say "I pass", but do not do so in this case.  "O.J. Made In America" is fascinating and totally and completely compelling.  It also may very well win an Academy Award on Sunday for Best Documentary, and it will be a well deserved Oscar if it does.

Four Stars from The Grandstander.

Don't miss it.

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You might also, if you have Amazon Prime, check out the ten episode Season One of "Z: The Beginning of Everything".  It is the story of the courtship and marriage of Zelda Sayre and F. Scott Fitzgerald.  It is very stylishly done and rather entertaining.  It stars, and is produced by, Christina Ricci as Zelda, and she is charming.  Scott Fitzgerald is played by David Hoflin, and actor unknown to me, but he's also good in the role.  The only other actor familiar to me in this one is David Strathairn, who plays Zelda's father.

Two and on-half stars from The Grandstander, but worth watching just to see Miss Ricci's performance.

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A recent podcast interview that I heard with actor John Turturro prompted me to seek out Robert Redford's 1994 movie, "Quiz Show".  This movie centers on the quiz show scandals of the 1950's.  If this is a subject with which you are unfamiliar, it is worth doing  a little research on your Google Machines to get some background on a most fascinating subject.  Redford's movie stars Turturro, Rob Morrow, Ralph Fiennes, Paul Schofield, and David Paymer, and it is terrific.  It was nominated for Best Picture that year, but it lost to "Forrest Gump", another example of when the Academy got it wrong, but I digress.

If you've never seen this one, do yourself a favor - seek it out and watch it.  It's terrific.

Four stars all the way from The Grandstander.

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"Midnight Lace" was a Hitchcock-type thriller made in 1960 that starred Doris Day.  During a time when Day was playing the virtuous woman in a series of RomComs with Rock Hudson, James Garner, Tony Randall and others, this was departure for her (to me, at least), and she was quite good in it.  In this one, she was always photographed in the best of lighting, she wore beautiful designer outfits, and she screamed a lot, but don't get me wrong, I liked the movie.  Lots of misdirection and red herrings as to who the bad guy who was terrorizing Doris might be, so it kept you guessing, even though, in the end, you said, "well, I knew it was him all along."  The movie co-starred Rex Harrison, John Gavin, Roddy McDowell, John Williams, and, as Day's "older" aunt, the great Myrna Loy.  Loy, of course, was thirty-plus years past her "Thin Man" prime when this was made, but there were still elements of the spunky Nora Charles in her performance, and that is always worth seeing.

Two and one-half stars from The Grandstander.

Mike and Barry (and Others) and Stolen Bases

I have been inundated with responses (5 "likes" and 2 comments on Facebook) to my post of two days ago comparing Mike Trout to Mickey Mantle, Hank Aaron, Barry Bonds, and Willie Mays at comparable stages in their careers.  One of the comments (and the guy who made it shall remain nameless) said that I should have included Stolen Bases.  So, in order to save this guy the trouble of looking it up himself, I present the following:

	Mike Trout	Hank Aaron	Barry Bonds	Mickey Mantle	Willie Mays
Stolen Bases	143	20	212	43	121
Caught Stealing	28	9	64	16	43
%	83.6	70.0	76.8	72.9	73.8

Again, these stats are from approximately the first six years and 800 or so games of each of the players careers (see previous post for the exact numbers).

I also wanted to check the percentage of successful steals were for some of the players who are noted stolen base marvels and/or great base runners. 

Jackie Robinson  197 SB, 86.8%

Rickey Henderson  1,406 SB, 80.8%

Lou Brock 938 SB, 75.3%

Maury Wills 556 SB, 72.8%

Omar Moreno 487 SB, 72.8%

Pete Rose 198 SB, 57.1%

baseball-reference.com  does not list Stolen Base Attempts for much, if no all of the careers of noted base stealers Ty Cobb (897 SB), Max Carey (738), and Honus Wagner (723), so an accurate success rate cannot be given for them.

Conclusions:

• Trout's success rate at stealing bases is incredibly high.  Better than all but Jackie Robinson in this admittedly small sample size.
• Aaron and Mantle were not being paid to steal bases.  They also played at a time when the stolen base was not a major weapon in the baseball arsenal.
• Jackie Robinson's reputation as one of the best use runners ever is pretty much deserved.
• Would you have bet that Omar Moreno had the same success rate as Maury Wills?
• I don't remember Barry Bonds stealing so much when he was with the Pirates.
• I chose to include Pete Rose because, whatever else is became and remains today, I remember him as a smart ball player and a good base runner.  I was shocked to see that his success rate at steals was so low.

FINAL CONCLUSION:  Mike Trout is a pretty damn good ball player, no matter how you look at him.

Mike and Mickey...and Hank and Barry and Willie

Spring Training opened yesterday, and rather than doing an extensive analysis of the Pirates, I thought that I would delay such ramblings and instead talk about a subject that has been niggling in the back of my mind for awhile.  It concerns Los Angeles Angels superstar Mike Trout, already a two time Most Valuable Player.

At some point during this off season, someone, probably on the MLB Network, probably after he was named the AL MVP  for the second time in his career, said that he is "this generation's Mickey Mantle." 

High praise for Mr. Trout, so I decided to do one of my famous spread sheets to compare the two of them at comparable stages in their careers, and this is what it looks like.

	Mike Trout	Mickey Mantle
Seasons	6	6
Games	811	808
BA	0.306	0.308
HR	168	173
HR/162 games	34	35
RBI	497	575
RBI/162 games	99	115
Hits	917	907
Hits/162 games	183	181
Runs	600	642
Runs/162 games	120	129

Through six seasons, Trout and Mantle are practically the same player.  The Mick outpaces Trout in both Runs Scored and Runs Batted In, which may be a function of the other players on their respective teams.  Otherwise, those "Trout Is Mantle" comparisons are not far off.

Then, I decided to throw in a couple of other players into the mix to see how Trout compares to them.  You might recognize them:

So, here is the expanded chart:

	Mike Trout	Hank Aaron	Barry Bonds	Mickey Mantle	Willie Mays
Seasons	6	6	6	6	6
Games	811	886	871	808	762
BA	0.306	0.323	0.269	0.308	0.311
HR	168	179	142	173	128
HR/162 games	34	33	26	35	27
RBI	497	617	563	575	509
RBI/162 games	99	113	84	115	108
Hits	917	1,137	837	907	903
Hits/162 games	183	209	156	181	192
Runs	600	612	563	642	531
Runs/162 games	120	112	105	129	113

I will only draw a couple of conclusions from these comparisons.

1. Trout certainly holds his own when compared to these four great players.  No doubt that in Trout, we are seeing a guy who can become one of the all time great players by the time his career is done.
2. Please don't bother pointing out that Bonds' numbers were rolled up in his Pre-Balco Era.  We all get it.
3. Perhaps the most striking aspect of this little chart are the stats of Hank Aaron.  When discussions of "who was the greatest ball player ever?" take place, I don't think that Aaron's name gets mentioned nearly often enough.

Okay, time to put the calculator away and start getting into Bucco Spring Training.  Time to worry about just which Ivan Nova shows up for the Pirates in 2017.