My Oscar Predictions

The world, insofar as it is comprised of my minimal readership, has been anxiously awaiting The Grandstander's Annual Oscar Predictions, so pull up a chair and read on.

I can not offer a totally informed opinion, but I have seen seven of the nine set Picture nominees, thirteen of the twenty Acting nominees, four of the five Director nominees, and five of the ten Screenwriting nominees.  I will also base my predictions on how other awards have been given this year, and what I have been hearing on a couple of movie based podcasts that I  follow.

In the wake of the #oscarssowhite movement of a few years back and the #metoo and #timesup movement of this past year, the Motion Picture Academy is in a position to recognize African-American and female artists this year in both the Screenwriting and Directing categories in the persons of Greta Gerwig and Jordan Peele.

Gerwig and Peele have been nominated in both categories for their respective films, "Lady Bird" and "Get Out".  Both movies were among my favorites of the year, and it will be interesting to see how this plays out as the envelopes, hopefully the correct ones this year, will be opened tomorrow night.

So, here we go in the Big Eight categories, or as will call it this year, "Eight Predictions Outside McCandless, Pennsylvania".

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

This is the one category where I have seen none of the five movies nominated, so this will be just a SWAG on my part.   I am just going to play a hunch and say that the Oscar will go to James Ivory for "Call Me By Your Name".  That's all this one is - a hunch.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

This is one category where I have seen all nominees.  This is also a most interesting category because the winner in this one has been Best Picture winner in recent years ("Argo" and "Spotlight" to name two), and this is where Gerwig and Peele will face off for the first time of the evening.  This is also the only category where one of my favorite movies of 2017, "The Big Sick", received any love from the Academy, so I'd love to see Kumail Nanjiani and Emily V. Gordon win the award, but I think the winner will be Jordan Peele for "Get Out".

DIRECTOR

I originally postulated that this would be the category wherein the Academy would recognize "Dunkirk" and award the Oscar to Christopher Nolan, but every indicator leading up to Oscar night tells you that the winner will be Guillermo del Toro for "The Shape of Water", and The Grandstander will not buck the trend. Del Toro it shall be.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Allison Janney of "I, Tonya" has won every conceivable award in this category leading up to Oscar night, so it seems almost preordained that she will win this for her over-the-top portrayal of Tonya Harding's mother.  Upon reflection, I have heard a lot of people say that Laurie Metcalf gave a much more nuanced performance as Saoirse Ronan's mother in "Lady Bird".  So, on the theory that you have to pick at least one upset, I am calling a win for Laurie Metcalf for "Lady Bird".  

My $.02.....One of the very best acting performances I saw all last year was turned in by Holly Hunter in "The Big Sick".  The fact that she was not nominated in this category is a huge injustice in my mind.  

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Like Allison Janney, Sam Rockwell of "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri" has been winning all the pre-Oscar awards in this category, but in my opinion, he wasn't even the best supporting actor in that same movie.  That would have been Woody Harrelson, and he, Harrelson, would be a much more deserving winner.  However, I will not go against the tide here.  The winner will be Sam Rockwell for "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri".

ACTRESS

Another category in which I have seen all five nominees, and all of them, Sally Hawkins, Frances McDormand, Margot Robbie, Saoirse Ronan, and Meryl Streep, were brilliant.  In another category that seems almost preordained, I will go with the prevailing wind and call for a win for Frances McDormand of "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri".   Readers know that I was not a fan of this movie.  I thought that it was an unpleasant story about very unpleasant people, but there is no denying the performance of McDormand.  She was totally convincing in this part.  This will be her second Oscar, but I will tell you that I liked her a lot better as Marge Gunderson in "Fargo".

My $.02....Two years ago, I loved Saoirse Ronan as the young Irish immigrant in 1952 in the wonderful movie "Brooklyn". She was nominated for that performance and did not win.  In "Lady Bird", she plays a contemporary American high school senior, and she is equally brilliant. She won't win again this year, but her day is coming.  If any young actress will become the "next Meryl Streep", is will be Ronan.  She is just terrific.

ACTOR

Not going to waste much space on this one.  The slam dunk winner in this category will be Gary Oldman for his portrayal of Winston Churchill in "Darkest Hour".  No other performance of the last year can touch it.

BEST PICTURE

Now, the biggie.  As of last week, if I had a vote in this thing, I was torn among three movies: "Lady Bird", "The Post", and "The Shape of Water".  If any three of those won, I would be happy.  Then, just this past Monday night, I saw "Get Out", and it is a movie that I just can't get out of my mind.  It is a horror movie on the face of it, but it has many layers to it that makes it so much more than that.  Honestly, Marilyn and I have been talking about it pretty much all week since we have seen it.  So, "Get Out" now becomes the fourth movie that I would be happy if it were to win.

So, what will win?  My official prediction is that "The Shape of Water" will take home the big prize, but let me offer this.  The Best Picture category is the only category where the electors give a weighted vote.  In all other categories, you vote for one person.  Period.  For Best Picture, the voter gives a ranked voted - first, second, third, etc - like the MVP voting in baseball.  This can allow a sleeper, a movie that gets a lot of second and third place votes to sneak in and win when opinions on other movies can be highly divergent among the electorate.  It has been speculated that such divergence exists between "The Shape of Water" and "Three Billboards...", and if that manifests itself among the voters, a  sleeper like "Lady Bird" or "Get Out" might end up winning the Best Picture Award.  A key indicator for this, to which I alluded earlier, might come in the Original Screenplay award.   Should Greta Gerwig or Jordan Peele take down that one, there might be a surprise when they open the envelope for Best Picture.

There you go.  Eight categories, eight predictions.  As always, Watch, but Don't Bet, and enjoy the show Sunday night.