Oscars Thoughts and Predictions

I have been completely silent on the subject of the Academy Awards for a couple of reasons.  One, the nominations were announced when we were on vacation in Florida, so I was unable to strike while the iron was hot, as it were, and once we got back home, well, I just never found the time to do so.  Two, I have been unable to see all of the nominated performances, or even a lot of them, so I go on the theory that No Prediction is better than an Uniformed Prediction.

Still, what fun is that, so I've decided to blow some smoke anyway.  Here goes.

Nine films have been nominated for Best Picture.  I have seen four of them: "Hell or High Water", "Hidden Figures", "La La Land", and "Manchester by the Sea".  Of the remaining five, I do want to see "Fences", and I kinda sorta want to see "Arrival". "Hacksaw Ridge", "Lion", and "Moonlight" all fall into the category of "Didn't see it, don't wanna see it."

BEST PICTURE:  I am saying that the winner will come from among the four movies that I have seen.  If we used The Grandstander's standard of What Movie Am I Most Likely To Watch Again And Again Over The Years, then the winner would be "Hell or High Water" in a landslide, but I am going to call this one for another terrific movie, which is also one that I will watch more than once, "Hidden Figures".

ACTOR: Once again, I have only seen two of these nominees, Ryan Gosling and Casey Affleck.  I believe that it will come down as a race between Affleck and Denzel Washington.  Washington has already won two Oscars, but will he benefit from Hollywood reacting to last year's #oscarssowhite controversy?  Possibly, but I say that the Oscar this year goes to Casey Affleck.

ACTRESS: I have seen two nominated performances, Meryl Streep in "Florence Foster Jenkins", and Emma Stone in "La La Land".  I love them both, and both were great performances, but the buzz seems to be heaviest for Natalie Portman in "Jackie", and I say that Miss Portman takes home her second Oscar come Sunday night.

Supporting Actor: Again, only saw two of the five nominees, so this prediction is based solely on personal preference:  Jeff Bridges wins for "Hell or High Water".  Lucas Hedges, the kid in "Manchester by the Seas" was terrific, and I'd have no problem if he won, but Bridges was just SO good, and this award will be a way for Hollywood to honor this terrific movie.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Michelle Williams gave a wonderful performance in "Manchester By The Sea", but the one category that seems to be a slam dunk this year is a win for Viola Davis in Fences", so Davis it is.

DIRECTOR: "La La Land" was everybody's darling to sweep the Oscars this year, but in recent months, it has been hit with a strange and bitchy sort of Hollywood backlash.  I mean, have you read some of those "this movie really stinks" types of stories?  Unfair, but I think it will hurt the the movie, Ryan Gosling, and Emma Stone in the voting. However, Hollywood will honor this movie by naming Damien Chazelle as Best Director.

ORIGINAL SONG: The Oscar goes to "How Far I'll Go" from the movie "Moana" written and composed by Lin-Manuel Miranda.  Why? Because it was written and composed by Lin-Manuel Miranda, and at the age of 37, Miranda will now have achieved an EGOT (Emmy, Grammy, Oscar, and Tony), plus a Pulitzer Prize.  It's good to be Lin-Manuel Miranda.

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:  Never made a prediction in this category before, but what the hell, I am calling for Ezra Edelman's amazing five part, seven and one-half hour documentary, "O.J. Made In America" to win the Oscar.

And here are two more predictions for you.  Strictly semi-educated guesses on my part:

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Kenneth Lonergan, "Manchester By The Sea".

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: August Wilson, "Fences.

There you go.  Ten predictions will make it easy to calculate my winning percentage.  As always....Watch, But Don't Bet.

Academy Awards Predictions, 2016

Tonight is the big night for movie fans, the annual Academy Awards show.  The Awards this year are, of course, shrouded in controversy over the lack of diversity among all of the major nominees in the major categories.  What a year for the Academy to have selected Chris Rock to host the show.  Talk about serendipity!  I, for one, am looking forward to Rock's opening of the show.  It will surely be funny, and it will surely make a lot of people squirm.

But, on with the show, which means The Grandstander's predictions.

Of the eight movies nominated, I will have seen (after catching a matinee showing today of "The Big Short") five of them.  My opinions are just that - opinions - and are not fully informed.  My predictions are based upon those movies that I have seen, what I have read in various media, and how other awards have been handed out during this award season.

Three of the four acting awards are deemed to be pretty much a cinch, so I am not going out on any limb her by predicting that the Oscars for Best Actor, Actress, and Supporting Actress will be handed to Leonardo DiCaprio, Brie Larson, and Alicia Vikander.  It should also be noted that I have seen none of these three performances.

A word here about DiCaprio.  I think that he is terrific.  I have never seen him be anything less that excellent in any role that I have seen him play.  And while I didn't not see "The Revenant", everything that I have read or heard about his performance makes this one seem like a movie where the film makers and DiCaprio himself seem to be fairly screaming "Look and how I am acting  in this  movie."  I did see Matt Damon in "The Martian" and he was terrific.  In an understated way, he carried the movie and made it believable.  In his own way, I am sure that Leo did the same thing in "The Revenant", so I won't begrudge him his preordained Oscar tonight, but I am sorry that there will be no love for Matt Damon for what I thought was the best performance that I had seen all year.

The Supporting Actor Oscar race is an interesting one. Mark Ruffalo has been nominated for "Spotlight" and he was great in it (I saw that one!), as was Mark Rylance in "Bridge of Spies."  A lot of critical support seems to be favoring Rylance, and he would be a deserving winner, but the Academy often uses the Supporting Actor/Actress category as a sort of a make-up or lifetime achievement award.  I think that they will do it again this year and award the Oscar to Sylvester Stallone.

For Adapted Screenplay, I will predict that Nick Hornby will win for "Brooklyn".  This will be the Academy's way to honor this terrific movie.  For Original Screenplay, I'll go with Josh Singer and Tom McCarthy for "Spotlight".  However, don't be surprised if the Oscar goes to the writers of "Straight Outta Compton".  This could be a way for the Academy to answer all those embarrassing lack of diversity protests.

In an effort to pad my stats, I will predict that "inside Out" will win for Best Animated feature film.

Many are predicting that Alejandro Inarritu will win four "The Revenant", but I am going against the grain on this one since I don't believe that the Academy will go with back-to-back Oscars for Inarritu (he won for "Birdman" last year).  My pick on this one goes for Tom McCarthy for "Spotlight".

That leaves the Big One...Best Picture of the Year.  As I mentioned above, I have seen four of the nominees, "Bridge of Spies", "Brooklyn", "The Martian", and "Spotlight".  I will see "The Big Short" this afternoon.  The other three "Mad Max: Fury Road", "The Revenant", and "Room" fall into the category for me of "Didn't See It; Don't Wanna See It".  With all due respect to the filmmakers and the audience that loved them, they are just not my kind of movies.  Doesn't mean they're bad; just means that they are not for me.

So what movie would I choose if they gave me a vote?  Based on the four that I have seen so far, I would go in this order...#4 "Bridge of Spies", #3 "Brooklyn", #2 "The Martian", and the the winner would be...."Spotlight", but that's just me, and who am I predicting will win?

All forecasts and odds makers seem to say that it will be "The Revenant", but I am going to play a hunch and follow the lead shown by the Screen Actors Guild Awards and call for a Best Picture win for "Spotlight".

Terrific ensemble performance by everyone in this cast, a great story, and a true one.  

There you go...nine categories, nine predictions.  As always, watch, but don't bet.

Oscar Predictions

While the installers are busy putting in new carpeting throughout the upstairs of our house today, The Grandstander will, by popular demand (which means that more than one person has asked about it [and there have been two such requests]), revisit an annual feature - My Academy Award Predictions.

This is the third year that I have done this.  Actually, in 2012, I really just made some observations ahead of time, but no predictions per se.  Last year, I did predict the winners in 9 categories and hit on six of them.  Not bad, and let's see if I can do better this year.

Best Picture. 

Nine pictures have been nominated, and I have had the good fortune to see six of them.  Were I voting, I would give the nod to "Nebraska", and I do this by asking the simple question:  Which movie am I likely to watch again and again in the years ahead?  By that standard, "Nebraska" tops the list for me. (By the way, this is not a be-all-and-end-all criterion.  If it were, then movies like Caddyshack, Sixteen Candles, Vacation, and Eight Men Out would have Oscars to their credit, which, good as they are, they really don't deserve.)  However, my call for the Oscar winner come Sunday night is for "American Hustle" to take home the statue.  I had this movie behind "Captain Phillips" before I saw "Nebraska", but I won't argue with this one earning the big prize.

Full disclosure:  I have not seen "Dallas Buyers Club", "Philomena", or "12 Years a Slave".

Best Actor.

Christian Bale was great in "American Hustle", as was Leonardo DiCaprio in "Wolf of Wall Street", and Chiwetel Ejiofor won the British version of the Oscar for "12 Years a Slave", but this seems to be a race between Bruce Dern in "Nebraska" and Matthew McConaughey for "Dallas Buyers Club".  The Academy often likes to award old timers like Dern who get a plum role late in theior careers, but that usually happens in the Supporting category, so I am going to call this one for Matthew McConaughey.

Also, I can't comment on this category without saying one last time that Tom Hanks really got hosed by not being nominated for "Captain Phillips".

Best Actress.

This category appears to be the closest thing to a slam dunk going in, so I will call this one for Cate Blanchett in "Blue Jasmine".  Terrific movie and a fantastic performance.  My vote for second place here would go to the wonderful Amy Adams in "American Hustle".

Best Supporting Actor.

I take back what I said earlier.  THIS is the slam dunk category of the night with the award going to Jared Leto of "Dallas Buyers Club".  However, Barkhad Abdi of "Captain Phillips" won the British version of the award, but Leto won the SAG and Golden Globe, so I'll go with him.

Best Supporting Actress.

I have seen three of the nominees, Sally Hawkins of "Blue Jasmine", Jennifer Lawrence of "American Hustle" and June Squibb of "Nebraska", all great performances, but I will predict that the Oscar will go to Lupita Nyong'o of "12 Years a Slave".  This will also be he Academy's way of honoring this movie which received so many other big nominations.

Best Director.

I have seen four of the five nominees, and my vote would go to Alexander Payne for "Nebraska" if I had one.  Usually, the Best Picture winner director wins this one, which would point to David O. Russell for "American Hustle", but I will go off track and call this one for Alfonso Cuaron for "Gravity".  

Best Original Song.

To me, this has become an irrelevant category for the Academy Awards and has been pretty much since Henry Mancini stopped scoring movies, but since they hand one out, I am going to call a win for Ordinary Love from "Mandela:The Long Walk to Freedom".   Written and performed by U2, I see this as an easy call and am including it here just to fatten up my winning percentage.

Screenwriting Awards.

This are pretty much SWAG predictions on my part, but for Best Adapted Screenplay, I'll go with Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope for "Philomena" and for Original Screenplay, Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell  for "American Hustle".

Best Cinematography

I am not going to be so pretentious as to even pretend to be knowledgeable about the art of Cinematography, nevertheless, I am anxious to see how this one turns out as two of the nominees are "Nebraska" and "Gravity".  The look of the movie "Nebraska" really made me feel the openness and loneliness of the wide open spaces of the American Great Plains, and isn't that what movies are supposed to do?  However, "Gravity" really did make like you were in outer space, for crying out loud.  So, what the hell, a Cinematography prediction for Emmanuel Lubezki for "Gravity".

There you go - ten predictions.  Watch, but don't bet.