"Let Us Come To Praise Ceasar....."

Well, no sooner had my Opening Day post that excoriated the Pirates for their skinflint ways been published in the blogosphere than the news arrived that the team had reached a contract agreement with one of their young hope-to-be-star players, third baseman Ke'Bryan Hayes, for $70 million over eight years, with a team option for a ninth year.  It is the largest guaranteed contract that the Pirates have ever given a player, surpassing the $60 million contract that they gave to Jason Kendall in 2000.  It took the team twenty-two years to surpass the amount of that contract, make of that what you will.

So, while we have been rightfully critical of the team for their penurious ways, it is only fair to give them an "Attaboy" for this one.  If over the life of this contract Hayes becomes merely a good and consistent player, never mind a superstar, the team has fallen into an incredible bargain with this deal.   By comparison, Cardinals third sacker Nolan Arenado will make $34 million this season, just about half of what Hayes will make over the next eight years.  The real mystery here is why Hayes agreed to this deal.  He obviously is not betting on himself  to become the superstar who will command Arenado-type money down the road.  Of course, that seventy mill will insure that several generations of Hayes descendants will never have to punch a time clock in their lives, so I won't feel too bad for him.

It should be noted that Hayes left the game yesterday with what appeared to be a wrist injury in the second inning.  You will recall that he was injured in the second game of last season, missed two months, and ended up hitting in the .250 range for the season.  Reports are that Hayes is okay and his removal from the game yesterday was purely precautionary.  However, should Hayes turn out to be a china doll and hurt all the time, that will once again fall into an "only the Pirates" stroke of disastrous luck.  Let's all hope that that doesn't become the case.

For a better analysis of this deal, I refer you to Joe Starkey's column in today's Post-Gazette.  You can read it HERE.

One more thing.  What are the odds that Hayes spends the entirety of that eight year contract with the Buccos?   God willing, I'll still be around in 2030 when that contract expires, but I wouldn't bet the mortgage, or even the car payment, on him still being a Pirate when it does.

Pirates 2021, and The "Timberwolves Experiment" Begets "The Pirates Project"

If you are a regular reader of The Grandstander, you know that I usually write this post before Opening Day, but the timing just didn't work out, so here I am, a day late.

So I watched the Pirates 5-3 win over the Cubs yesterday and enjoyed it immensely.  The highlight, of course, was what you see in the picture atop this post: Ke'Bryan Hayes' first inning two run home run that gave the Bucs a lead that they never relinquished, thanks in large part to lousy pitching from the Cubs (11 walks) and stellar relief pitching from the Pirates (6 IP, 1 H, 0 BB, 9 K).  We will gloss over the fact that the game took an interminable amount of time to play, that the Pirates could manage only 5 runs when given 11 free passes, and that the Ghost of Starling Marte will apparently still haunt Pirates baserunners, and just revel in the victory.

But have no illusions about this team.  They are going to be bad, and they will struggle to avoid losing 100 games, but that is not necessarily a bad thing, as Ben Cherrington (GMBC) is doing the right thing.  Unloading marketable players for prospects to rebuild the farm system and develop a team that will come 2023 or 2024 bear fruit and contend for championships. with current players like Hayes, Mitch Keller, Kevin Newman, and Brian Reynolds being the centerpieces.  That's what the Astros and Nationals did; that's what the Brewers, Blue Jays, and Padres are now doing.  It's the way to go.

Intellectually, I get it, but the cynicism that the Nutting Administration has built up inside of me wonders what will happen when the time comes to, as they say, Go For It.  Will the team pay the piper with the current core of four above (assuming all goes right in there development), and pay to bring in missing pieces?  Because we have heard this all before, and we were told that players like Josh Bell and Jameson Taillon and Austin Meadows would one day be the centerpieces of contending championship-caliber teams, which they may very well be with the Nats, Yankees, and Rays.

In the meantime, try not to think of the season long slog that this Pirates team will experience, but enjoy each individual game that you watch or attend.  If you just happen to catch a game that the Pirates win with Mitch Keller pitching a two hit shutout, or Brian Reynolds going 3-for-four with a home run and four RBI, consider it as you would a record album:  It might be lousy, but it has one or two terrific tracks on it.

********

"The Pirates Project"

What, you may ask, is The Pirates Project?  It will be a season long wagering experiment, and idea that began when my pal Dan asked over the winter, "If you bet against the Pirates, who are going to lose way, way more games than they will win in 2021, will you end up making money?"  I tested out this theory by taking the worst team in the NBA, the Minnesota Timberwolves, and made small bets against them every game over a long period of time, and wrote about it back in February.

The Timberwolves Experiment ended after thirty games on March 31.  Over that thirty game period, the T'Wolves were bad.  Through twenty games, they were 4-16, and I was making a profit equal to 11.6% of my total wagers.  However, in games 21 through thirty, that team crossed me up by going 4-6, and reducing my ROI to a mere 2%.  

Still, this proved to me that with a bit of study and attention, and over a larger sample size, you can make some money by betting against a crummy team all of the time.  Hence....The Pirates Project.

The plan is to make a bet on the Money Line for whomever the Pirates are playing that day.  The amount bet will vary by the odds for any given game.  I categorize this as a hobby, not a plan to bet rich.  I doubt that any given bet that I make throughout the season will be higher than three dollars, and most of them will be closer to one buck a game.  I know that there might be stretches where the Pirates might go on a hot streak and win, say, nine of twelve games (even bad teams do that), and screw up the profit margin, but over the long haul, it will be interesting to see how it plays out.

One thing about this that makes me squeamish is that it puts me in a position of rooting against the Pirates, the team that I have loved for over sixty years of my life, but I don't think that that will happen.  I was cheering hard for them yesterday, and was excited for the win, even though it put me $1 in the red to start the season.  When I am watching them play, I'll never root for them to lose.

Will I be able to stay with this over the course of a 162 game season?  That's the big question.  Right now the plan is to get through the month of April.  Then the month of May, and so on.  I will be on vacation - public health protocols permitting - in North Carolina for a week at some point this summer, and I don't know if my Fan Duel account will work in that state, so I may miss ten or so games there, but I am hoping that I can stick with it for over a hundred games.  Until then, one month at a time, and of course, I shall keep all Loyal Readers updated on the progress of the Project.

Putting A Wrap on the 2020 Pirates

At lunch after golf last Friday, my buddy Dan asked me "Can you list something, anything, positive about the Pirates this year?"  Now this is a team that finished 19-41, a pace that would produce a 51-111 record in a full season, so let's just leave it at that, and concentrate on what Dan asked me.  So, what did I like about the 2020 Pirates?

1. First and foremost, the debut and performance of third baseman Ke'Bryan Hayes, pictured above.   Called up in mid-season, Hayes played in 24 games, and in 85 At Bats he hit .376 had 5 HR, 11 RBI, and had an OPS of 1.124.  He also played third base like a guy who will be adding multiple Gold Gloves to his trophy case in the years to come.  He seems to be the best Pirates prospect since Andrew McCutchen, and he will be a great joy to watch in the five or  six years he'll be in Pittsburgh before he will no longer be affordable for the Suits in the front office.
2. The emergence of Jacob Stallings as a gold glove caliber catcher, and a fair hitter (.248, 3 HR, 18 RBI, .702 OPS).  He appears to be excellent at handling pitchers and a popular and respected clubhouse leader.  
3. Mitch Keller, when he wasn't injured, seemed to emerge as the top pitcher he was touted to be over his last couple of starts, including throwing 11 consecutive no-hit innings in his last two starts.  That doesn't make him Johnny Vander Meer, but it does offer something hopeful.
4. The Pirates willingness to try Cole Tucker in the outfield.  He appears to be blocked in the infield, and trying him in the OF shows that the team is not willing to give up on a former #1 Draft Choice.  It's not like playing him there cost them anything in 2020, right?  He seemed to get better in the outfield as the season went along, but it's up it's him to prove that he can hit in the major leagues.
5. Several strong performances by Steven Brault.  I have spoken before of why I personally root for Brault, so I was very happy to see this for him.
6. Derek Shelton. He is a likable guy and a guy that, of course, we all want to see succeed.  He began his managerial career in a nightmare of a season like none ever before, and with the worst team in baseball.  He managed to get through it without slitting his wrists and jumping off of the Clemente Bridge, so good for him.  Insofar as his performance as a manager, it is far, far too early to offer any kind of judgement on that.
7. The attitude of the team.  The players all seemed to maintain a positive outlook throughout the season.  This was a breath of fresh air in contrast to the turmoil and sourness that was a hallmark of the team in the last half of the 2019 season.
8. The goofy stuff that the bullpen would do whenever a Pirate hit a home run.  This is the kind of organic stuff that can spring up in a team and make them easy to root for.  And it is something that cannot be manufactured.  I hope that the Pirates PR Machine doesn't try to do so.
9. They're getting the Overall Number One pick in the entry draft, presumably wunderkind pitcher Kumar Rocker.  Let's hope they don't screw it up.  (Can you say "Brian Bullington"?)
10. The fact that the Pirates and MLB were able to pull off any kind of season at all in this Pandemic Year.   Back in April, May, and even into June, I didn't think it was going to happen.

Okay, that's it.  There will be plenty of time to hash out the other not-so-positive aspects of the '20 squad, so we'll just leave it on a happy note.

And the sixteen team MLB Playoffs begin today.  In the great tradition of The Grandstander, let me predict that the Atlanta Braves will defeat the New York Yankees in the World Series this year.  A part of me, however, would perversely love to see the 29-31 Brewers take on the 29-31 Astros in the World Series, mainly because it will drive the Baseball Purists and Traditionalists positively batshit crazy!

Enjoy the post-season, and see you in Spring Training.

Oh, and one more image to give you some hope for the future....