Oneil Cruz, The Home Run Derby, and the Pirates at the All-Star Break

The Pirates Oneil Cruz, despite being eliminated in the semi-finals of Major League Baseball's Dunk Contest Home Run Derby, made quite an impression in the event last night.  The Post-Gazette made a huge deal of it this morning, and it is all over social media that not only did Cruz hit 34 HOME RUNS in the contest, he also hit THE LONGEST HOME RUN (513 FEET), and NINE OF THE TEN LONGEST HOME RUNS, and THE TOP FIVE LONGEST HOME RUNS in the contest.  Can you just imagine how Greg Brown and Joe Block will be slobbering all over this when the Pirates return to action on Friday?

Yes, I watched the HRD, and yes, I was rooting for Cruz, and yes, it was fun to see the rockets that were launched by Cruz and all of the other participants.  However, let's keep this in perspective here:  this was a glorified batting practice session, albeit one with the added pressure a time clock and a $1 million prize to the winner.  It also brings into perspective the conundrum that is Oneil Cruz.  He does have prodigious power, he is very fast, but he strikes out a lot, is not a very good hitter, and he is a disaster defensively, and he tends to loaf sometimes (although maybe he won't loaf anymore since Don "Donnie" Kelly recently benched him for two whole innings for not running out a ground ball).

He does hit mammoth home runs more than occasionally, but let's put even that into perspective.  Here are Cruz's stats at the All-Star Break:

Home Runs - 16, tied for 43rd in all of MLB

RBI - 37, tied for 117th in all of MLB

Strike Outs - 116, tied for 3rd in all of MLB

BA - .212, 146th in all of MLB

OPS - .733, 96th in all of MLB

By contrast, the Mariners' Cal "The Big Dumper" Raleigh, the winner of the HRD, currently has 38 HR, 82 RBI, a .259 BA, and an OPS of 1.010.  He is also a Gold Glove catcher.  I include this paragraph not only for comparison purposes, but to also give me a reason to type out the best nickname in all of sports: The Big Dumper.

There is a reason why Cruz, a seemingly one trick pony, was at the Home Run Derby, but is not actually on the All-Star team.  I confess that I am confused in the matter of Oneil Cruz.  There is a mass of talent somewhere in there, but he is very far from being a complete ballplayer.  Willie Stargell, Roberto Clemente, and Dave Parker he ain't.

Now, as for the Pirates themselves.  What will probably be the high point of the season for them came on July 2 when they defeated the Cardinals 5-0. That was the third straight shutout of the Cards in that series, and it was the team's sixth straight win.  They then departed on a nine game road trip to Seattle, Kansas City, and Minnesota that would lead up the All-Star Break.  Would the team build upon that six game winning streak and create some momentum going into the second half of the season?  We all know that answer.  They lost eight straight games before salvaging a win on the final Sunday of the first half of the season.  They now sit at 39-58 on pace for a 97 loss season.  However, I for one am fully confident that they can pull off 100 losses in this, the sixth year of the Ben Cherrington Regime.

For reasons unknown to many, Cherrington remains the GM of the Pirates, and earlier this week he oversaw the Pirates selections in the MLB entry draft.  The Bucs used their first two picks to select a couple of high school pitchers:

1. Seth Hernandez, 19, RHP

2. Angel Cervantes, 17, RHP

Unless either of these guys are Paul Skenes 2.0, we won't see Hernandez in Pittsburgh until 2029, and it will be the 2030's before Cervantes arrives.

We now await the July 31 trade deadline to see what guys GMBC trades for some other teams' random middle infield prospects.

PIRATES FEVER. CATCH IT!

Travis Williams, Ben Cherrington, Bob Nutting

The Bucco Brain Trust

What, us worry?

Thoughts on Oneil Cruz and "Three True Outcomes" From A Special Guest Blogger

Dave Jones is a long time friend of mine of going on forty years now.  He is a frequent golf partner, fellow degenerate sports better, and has served for God only knows how long as the commissioner of the North Park League (NPL) fantasy baseball league, of which I am a retired member and two time champion (ahem!).   As a member emeritus of the NPL, Dave keeps me on the mailing list, and today he sent out a most interesting email about baseball's "Three True Outcomes" and how they relate to Pirates outfielder Oneil Cruz.  I thought it was pretty interesting, and I asked Dave if I could reproduce it here for your reading pleasure while giving him full credit as a Special Guest Blogger here in The Grandstand.

He said OK, so take it away, Dave.....

I mentioned this baseball term in the Monday morning NPL e-mail.  It was brought to the attention of the baseball stat geek world by Christina Kahri of BaseballProspectus.  But here is what piqued my curiosity to take a look at it.  Or should I say I say who?   Answer: Oneil Cruz.

 

When watching the Pirates on TV lately (and they are hard to watch) I found myself thinking that geez - Cruz seems like he strikes out an awful lot.   Currently he's 3rd in MLB striking out with 89 K's, behind Riley Greene of Detroit with 93 and Austin Riley of Atlanta with 90.  HOWEVER, Cruz has only 275 Plate Appearances while Austin Riley and Riley Greene have more PA's - 310 and 296 for their K total. 

 

But the Three True Outcomes (TTO) then factors in strikeouts along with Walks and Home Runs.  In other words, a type of player that in a high percentage of plate appearances will have one of those three outcomes.  Just think Adam Dunn.

 

Dunn had 8,329 plate appearances and had the TTO in 49.9 percent of the time he came to the plate, basically half of every time up one of those three things were the result in a 14-year career.  So just for fun I looked up on Baseball Reference some random guys that I recalled being this type of player.  Such as Ryan Howard, Rob Deer, Miguel Sano.  They all had percentages in the 40's, but the King of TTO at least of the dozen or so guys I checked was Joey Gallo.  Joey Had 3,403 Plate Appearances, 208 HR, 497 BB, 1,292 K's for a TTO percentage of 58.6 of the time he did one of the three.  Guys like Bonds (38.5) and McGwire (45.6) were looked at and I thought Bonds would be higher, but he actually did not have a high K total.  Current players in this mold are Schwarber (48.7) and Judge (51.0) for their careers.  

 

Of course, this doesn't make them bad players or bad fantasy picks. On the contrary some of the best.  But okay, what's the story with Oneil Cruz?   It seems he's turning into at TTO guy.   Prior to this 2025 season and granted he's only in year 5 of his career, his TTO percentage was 44.1.   But in this 2025 season Oneil is cruising at a 52.0 TTO percent.  The King of Exit Velocity is Striking out in 38.8% of every time he bats, which inflates his TTO number.

But hey, not trying to knock the guy (at least too much!), he's still a good fantasy asset.  In our fantasy points scoring format he has 241 points in official at bats of 229 (and 275 plate appearances) as the LOCKHORNS 2nd leading batter behind Corbin Carroll and drafted by Harv in round 5 (#48 overall).  He's a better player for our points format over Rotisserie, as in Roto the .227 batting average would probably hurt that category.

 

It's just frustrating watching him wave at a ball in the dirt or look at one right down the middle for strike 3 when watching them on TV.

 

So, maybe I should stop watching if I'm so annoyed.   And another thing that annoys me in these TV broadcasts..... How many times can Greg Brown keep saying the Pirates are playing "Donnie Ball."   Yep, grabbing the remote.....CLICK!

Thanks, Dave, and thanks also for the shot taken at Pirates Chief Propaganda Minister Greg Brown and his frequent references to "Donnie Ball", or any reference to the Pirates skipper as Donnie.  The only people who should be calling a 45 year old man "Donnie" are his mother and his old classmates from whatever Mt. Lebanon Middle School he attended.

Here is a photo of our Guest Blogger and me taken last year when it was "Hawaiian Shirt Day" for our Tuesday Retiree Golf Group.  Obviously, neither Dave nor I owned a Hawaiian shirt so we both scurried to Amazon to buy one.  Thank God we didn't pick the same color!

POST SCRIPT:  One guy who popped into my head as possible prime TTO guy was retired Cubs and Mets outfielder Dave Kingman, so I looked it up.  In a sixteen year career, Kingman a .236 lifetime hitter, accumulated 6.677 at bats, hit 442 home runs, struck out 1,816 times and drew 608 bases on balls.  Pro-rated on a "per 162 game" basis, that would give you 37 HR, 51 BB, and a whopping 152 K's.  His career TTO percentage was 38.4%, lower than I would have expected.  He remains, however, the worst defensive outfielder that I have ever seen.

 

The Cruz Affair, and A Humiliating Loss

 

The announcement from 115 Federal Street that Oneil Cruz would be moved from short stop to centerfield came in such  a wonderfully ham-handed Only-The-Pirates fashion.  Let me count the ways.

1. It comes only a week after GM Ben Cherrington announced that Cruz "is our shortstop."  We weren't paying close enough attention when GMBC added "for now" to his ringing endorsement of his then-shortstop.
2. It comes 131 games into the season.  Not try it out in winter ball or spring training.   Let's start RIGHT NOW.  This, effectively, turns the remainder of the Bucs' season into early spring training, at least as far as the up-the-middle defense goes.
3. It was offhandedly announced midway through another stultifying Derek Shelton pre-game presser.  Not to be confused with his always riveting post-game pressers.
4. Word is that Cruz is "unhappy" about the move.  So much for what might be best for the team.  I also read that when the Pirates did try Cruz in the outfield a couple of springs ago, he made minimal effort in trying to learn the positions.   So now we will have yet another disgruntled ballplayer who will be counting his days until Free Agency Eligibility.

No way do I see this ending well for our Beloved Buccos.

(And thanks to Tim Benz, whose column HERE in Trib today served as inspiration for this post.)

********

And speaking of farces, how about that 18-8 loss to the Cubs last night?  Hey, lopsided games happen to everyone over the course of 162 games, but there was just SO MUCH to chew on in this one.  Again, let me count the ways.

1. The Cubs stole 8, count 'em, 8 bases on the Pirates.  This broke a team record that was set the year before the Titanic sank.
2. Mitch Keller struggled through four innings, throwing 97 pitches as the Cubs stole base after base.  Still, when he was pulled, the Pirates trailed only 3-2, and it was still a ballgame until.....
3. Domingo German came in and gave up 8 runs in the sixth inning, and effectively ended the game.  As was stated in a text chain conversation I was in during the game it was the worst performance by a German since their Army at Stalingrad.
4. Now down 11-3, Nick Gonzalez tried to stretch a single into a double and was thrown out by a mile.  As Greg Brown was incredulously saying "Gonzalez is headed to second", his colleague Neil Walker was heard saying "He'd better make it", and, of course, he did not.  Even the always rose colored glasses wearing Brownie was stunned that such a bone headed base running play was made when you're down by eight runs.
5. Not to be a "back in my day" kind of guy, but there was time in baseball when a manager would yank a guy out of the game right then and there and sit his ass on the bench to make an example and send the message that such stupidity will not be tolerated.  Guess that moves like that are not spelled out on the computer print outs that  so obviously governs Sheltie's decision making.
6. Then we got the Feel Good story of 33 year old pitcher Brady Feigl, who, after a journeyman career through the minors, struggling with injuries, and playing independent league baseball, got to make his first appearance in the big leagues, when Shelton finally pulled the plug on German, and immediately retired the first batter he faced on four pitches and ended the inning.  We got to see the proud parents and the tearful wife in the stands watching this long awaited debut.  Feigl then came out for one more inning and one-third of another and gave up six runs on seven hits.  This led to the ultimate embarrassment of.....
7. Sheltie asking first baseman Rowdy Tellez to finish the last inning and end the misery.  This, by the way, was the second time in three games that Sheltie did this with Tellez.  To me, having a position player come in and pitch in a blow out is the ultimate embarrassment for a team.  There is nothing cute or funny about it.  If I'm Rowdy, I march into Shelton's office after the game and say, "I've done you this favor twice now, but don't embarrass me like this ever again."   (Still, Tellez' ERA of 5.40 is a whole lot better than Feigl's 32.40.)

This is Year Five of the Cherrington/Shelton Regime, the year when it was ail to come together, and right up until August 1, the team was contending for a spot in the playoffs.  Then the bottom fell completely out and there were bad losses and a ten game losing streak.  Some sources are saying the GMBC really felt that 2025 was to be the year when it all came together.  Same old bullshit from the Front Office.

I never like to see anyone lose his or her job, but if it was up to me, after seemingly giving Gonzalez a pass on that base running gaffe and the Tellez pitching embarrassment, I would not have objected if Sheltie was given the pink slip before he even got to take a shower last night.

Tonight Linda and I head on down to PNC Park to watch this mess of a team take on the Cubs once again. It will be my ninth game of the year, and looking at the schedule and my calendar, it just might be my last visit to the ball yard this year.  The team is a mess, the manager stinks, and the team owner may well be the worst in all of professional sports.  Loyalty to a sports team is always a one way street, but it is an addiction that can never be shaken, I'm afraid.

And In Pirates News....

The 2022 major league baseball season begins one week from today, and here has been the biggest news items regarding our Pittsburgh Pirates this spring training.

• They are projected to have an Opening Day payroll of approximately $35 million, which puts them in 29th place among all MLB teams.
• They have no players - zero, none! - signed beyond 2022.
• They have opted to take their best player, Brian Reynolds, to salary arbitration over the measly difference of $650,000.  Yes, 650K is a lot of money to you and me, but it's couch cushion money to Bob Nutting and all other MLB owners.  Look for Reynolds to be dealt at the trade deadline this year or next before he becomes eligible for free agency when the Pirates would then have to pay him real money.
• There were also reports that the team tried to sign Reynolds to a long term extension, but he wouldn't accept it.  Would you were you in his position?
• Some of Mitch Keller's pitches hit 100 MPH on the radar gun, but based on what we have seen from Keller over the last several seasons, does that news actually excite you?

And in the big news out of Bradenton yesterday, the team has indicated that Oneil Cruz will be sent to Triple-A to start the season in Indianapolis. Yeah, I know that Cruz' defensive talents are "unpolished", that he's only played a handful of games above the Double-A level, and that the team doesn't want to hinder his "development."  Cruz has also been hitting the cover off the ball in Spring Training (and, yes, I know that that is not always a good indicator) and he has shown jaw-dropping power this spring, too.  He is also 23 years old, so he's not exactly a baby anymore, either.  He is perhaps the best prospect to come out of the Pirates organization since Andrew McCutchen.

In short, Oneil Cruz would be a player to get excited about and make you want to see in action at PNC Park.  Can't this penny-pinching outfit throw us a damned bone every once in awhile?  Apparently not.  Let's keep him under "contractual control" an extra year so we can wait an extra year to low ball him in arbitration when the time comes.

Baseball Fever - It's hard to catch it if you're a Pirates Fan!