Oscar Predictions

While the installers are busy putting in new carpeting throughout the upstairs of our house today, The Grandstander will, by popular demand (which means that more than one person has asked about it [and there have been two such requests]), revisit an annual feature - My Academy Award Predictions.

This is the third year that I have done this.  Actually, in 2012, I really just made some observations ahead of time, but no predictions per se.  Last year, I did predict the winners in 9 categories and hit on six of them.  Not bad, and let's see if I can do better this year.

Best Picture. 

Nine pictures have been nominated, and I have had the good fortune to see six of them.  Were I voting, I would give the nod to "Nebraska", and I do this by asking the simple question:  Which movie am I likely to watch again and again in the years ahead?  By that standard, "Nebraska" tops the list for me. (By the way, this is not a be-all-and-end-all criterion.  If it were, then movies like Caddyshack, Sixteen Candles, Vacation, and Eight Men Out would have Oscars to their credit, which, good as they are, they really don't deserve.)  However, my call for the Oscar winner come Sunday night is for "American Hustle" to take home the statue.  I had this movie behind "Captain Phillips" before I saw "Nebraska", but I won't argue with this one earning the big prize.

Full disclosure:  I have not seen "Dallas Buyers Club", "Philomena", or "12 Years a Slave".

Best Actor.

Christian Bale was great in "American Hustle", as was Leonardo DiCaprio in "Wolf of Wall Street", and Chiwetel Ejiofor won the British version of the Oscar for "12 Years a Slave", but this seems to be a race between Bruce Dern in "Nebraska" and Matthew McConaughey for "Dallas Buyers Club".  The Academy often likes to award old timers like Dern who get a plum role late in theior careers, but that usually happens in the Supporting category, so I am going to call this one for Matthew McConaughey.

Also, I can't comment on this category without saying one last time that Tom Hanks really got hosed by not being nominated for "Captain Phillips".

Best Actress.

This category appears to be the closest thing to a slam dunk going in, so I will call this one for Cate Blanchett in "Blue Jasmine".  Terrific movie and a fantastic performance.  My vote for second place here would go to the wonderful Amy Adams in "American Hustle".

Best Supporting Actor.

I take back what I said earlier.  THIS is the slam dunk category of the night with the award going to Jared Leto of "Dallas Buyers Club".  However, Barkhad Abdi of "Captain Phillips" won the British version of the award, but Leto won the SAG and Golden Globe, so I'll go with him.

Best Supporting Actress.

I have seen three of the nominees, Sally Hawkins of "Blue Jasmine", Jennifer Lawrence of "American Hustle" and June Squibb of "Nebraska", all great performances, but I will predict that the Oscar will go to Lupita Nyong'o of "12 Years a Slave".  This will also be he Academy's way of honoring this movie which received so many other big nominations.

Best Director.

I have seen four of the five nominees, and my vote would go to Alexander Payne for "Nebraska" if I had one.  Usually, the Best Picture winner director wins this one, which would point to David O. Russell for "American Hustle", but I will go off track and call this one for Alfonso Cuaron for "Gravity".  

Best Original Song.

To me, this has become an irrelevant category for the Academy Awards and has been pretty much since Henry Mancini stopped scoring movies, but since they hand one out, I am going to call a win for Ordinary Love from "Mandela:The Long Walk to Freedom".   Written and performed by U2, I see this as an easy call and am including it here just to fatten up my winning percentage.

Screenwriting Awards.

This are pretty much SWAG predictions on my part, but for Best Adapted Screenplay, I'll go with Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope for "Philomena" and for Original Screenplay, Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell  for "American Hustle".

Best Cinematography

I am not going to be so pretentious as to even pretend to be knowledgeable about the art of Cinematography, nevertheless, I am anxious to see how this one turns out as two of the nominees are "Nebraska" and "Gravity".  The look of the movie "Nebraska" really made me feel the openness and loneliness of the wide open spaces of the American Great Plains, and isn't that what movies are supposed to do?  However, "Gravity" really did make like you were in outer space, for crying out loud.  So, what the hell, a Cinematography prediction for Emmanuel Lubezki for "Gravity".

There you go - ten predictions.  Watch, but don't bet.