Pirates Home Runs in 2016; and a Final (?) Word On Pedro Alvarez

Last March the esteemed North Side Breakfast group had a semi-heated discussion concerning how many HR’s the Pirates would hit in 2016?  We went through the projected starting lineup, and both Jim Haller (JH) and Dan Bonk (DB) made actual predictions, and we also arrived at a consensus prediction.  Well, I saved those numbers (written on an Allegheny Sandwich Shoppe place mat), and today I compared them to the actual results, and here they are:

	JH Predicts	DB Predicts	Consensus	Actual
Harrison	13	10	10	4
Polanco	18	12	15	22
McCutchen	26	21	21	24
Marte	25	20	20	9
Kang	22	15	22	21
Cervelli	10	7	7	1
Mercer	12	8	8	11
“First Base”	20	10	10		29 HR @ 1B per pirates.com	SRod, Jaso, Bell
	146	103	113	92	92+29= 121
Rodriguez				18
Freese				13
Joyce				13
Jaso				8
Bell				3
Frazier				2
Cole				1
Liriano				1
Kratz				1
Stewart				1
HR in 2016				153
HR in 2015				140

These actual numbers are taken from the MLB stats on the Pirates website.  The site tells you that Pirates first basemen hit 29 HRs in 2016:  Sean Rodriguez 18, John Jaso 8, Josh Bell 3.  I am not sure if all of SRod’s homers came as a first basemen.  I am guessing that some of them came when he was playing another position, but that is a minor quibble.  If you accept the Pirates figures of 29 dingers from 1B, then the 121 HR’s produced by the starting lineup exceeded the estimates of Dan and the consensus, but fell well short of Jim’s projections.  As a team the Pirates hit 153 home runs, thirteen more than they hit in 2015.  No one except Jim saw that coming, but who knew that Rodriguez and Matt Joyce would combine for 31 home runs, and David Freese, who would add another 13 dingers, probably hadn't even by signed by the Pirates at the time we had this discussion. 

Another much asked question prior to this season was "How are the Pirates going to replace the 43 home runs and 148 RBIs Pedro Alvarez (27/77) and Neil Walker (16/71)?"

Well, they did and they didn't as it turned out.

Accepting the Pirates database, the 1B Troika of Rodriguez-Jaso-Bell (29 HR, 117 RBI) eclipsed Pedro's 27 and 77.

It was at second base where the team fell short.  Second basemen Josh Harrison and Adam Frazier combined for 6 home runs and 70 RBIs, well short of Walker's 16 circuit clouts, but only one short of his runs batted in.

And of course, no discussion of Pedro Alvarez can be made without discussing his defense.  Please note the lower portion of the chart below.

	Rodriguez	Jaso	Bell	Pedro Alvarez
At Bats	300	380	128	337
HR	18	8	3	22
RBI	56	42	19	49
BA	0.270	0.268	0.273	0.249
OPS	0.775	0.859	826	0.826
K	102	74	19	97
BB	33	45	21	37
FIELDING				2015:
Total Chances	191	800	174	1057
Errors	3	5	3	23
Fielding %	0.984	0.994	0.983	0.978
				2016:
Chances				9
Errors				4

In addition to the three current Pirate first sackers shown on the chart, David Freese also handled 378 chances with only 3 errors, and another five players played the position at various times, handling 34 chances with zero errors.  Regardless of how you slice-and-dice the Pirates offensive production at first base this past season, I don't think it can be questioned that they were better off defensively in 2016 at first than they were in 2015.

And as for Alvarez, still a subject of much discussion among Pirates fans, he seems to have found his niche in Baltimore as a platoon Designated Hitter.  Only 38 of his 337 AB's came against a left handed pitcher (1 HR, 6 RBI, .238 BA). He had very limited appearances on defense this season, fielding only nine chances and making four errors in the process.  

So, would the Pirates have been better off with Pedro in 2016 than they were without him?  It is a question that I am sure a large subset of Pirates fans will continue to beat to death on social media and talk shows.  One thing is for sure:  Pedro will be in the post season that begins tonight, while all of his former Bucco teammates will be watching on television, so I guess he is having the last laugh.