If you are a Pirates fan, 2017-18 was, to paraphrase The Bard, the winter of our discontent. We all know what happened. The Pirates traded, or, depending on your point of view, dumped the salaries of their best pitcher, Gerrit Cole, and their best and most popular player and Face-of-the-Franchise Andrew McCutchen. We all know the wailing and gnashing of teeth that followed, much of coming from this particular Grandstand.
But that is all behind us now, Spring Training is about to conclude and Opening Day is a mere four days away. And while we can bitch and moan about the Nutting-Coonelly-Huntington triumvirate all we want, I'll try and focus on the players that are here. THEY all want to be in the major leagues, and THEY all want to succeed, so if THEY make the efforts needed to be successful, I will certainly be cheering them on, as I have for the fifty-nine previous incarnations of the Pirates that I have been following since that 1959 season, when I attended my first ballgame. If they fall short because they just weren't as good as the other teams, well, then we can go back to the management of the team and what they have and have not done.
But before any analysis, let's recognize the two new "Faces of the Franchise" as described in the Post-Gazette's season preview write up today, Josh Bell and Jameson Taillon.
Bell arrived last year as a full time player and hit 26 home runs. Taillon struggled with non-baseball health issues last season, but it has been apparent since he arrived in Pittsburgh two seasons ago that he has the goods to be a top of the line starting pitcher in the big leagues. Pirates fans, these are your leaders going forward.
So what are we to make of the chances for your 2018 Pittsburgh Pirates? Me? I am more pessimistic than I am optimistic, but, call me a Kool-Ade drinker, but I do see some positive signs.
The outfield will consist of Starling Marte (.362 BA, 1.047 OPS in spring training), Gregory Polanco (.326 and .998), and newcomer Corey Dickerson (.325 and .800). That's pretty damn good if spring training stats mean anything, which, of course, we know they do not. Still, we know that serious trust issues exist where Marte and Polanco are concerned. We know what perhaps they can do, but we also saw what happened last year, so who knows which versions of those guys will show up. Dickerson was an all-star last year for the Rays, but he had a big drop off in the second half of the season. The potential is there for a good to very good outfield, but it could just as easily go the other way, too. And if one of those guys get injured, the roster as it is comprised today has no fourth outfielder, other than some combination of Adam Frazier, Sean Rodriguez, and Jose Osuna, who are all infielders by trade. Having no fourth outfielder killed this team in 2017. Will it happen in again in 2018?
In the infield, Bell (.283 and .899) is as close to a sure thing that the Pirates have in this lineup. A lot is being expected of third baseman Colin Moran, obtained from Houston in the Cole trade. Moran is hitting .346 and .793 with 10 RBI this spring. That is hopeful to be sure. Jordy Mercer and Josh Harrison are not having a spring that, to use Neal Huntington's new favorite expression, lives up to the backs of their baseball cards, but we know who and what those guys are and if they perform as they have in the past, that will be okay. Harrison and Mercer are also, it should be noted, prime candidates to be traded by the July 31 deadline date.
Francisco Cervelli is having a good spring at .375 and 1.224, but the big question is can he stay healthy and catch 130-140 games. There's a drop-off behind him at that position.
But it is the pitching where the biggest questions rise for the Bucs. Taillon has had a solid spring with a 2.79 ERA albeit in only 9.2 innings pitched. It is the other four projected starters that cause you to gulp a bit....Ivan Nova (4.85), Trevor Williams (5.54), Chad Kuhl (8.27), and Joe Musgrove, also obtained in the Cole trade, (10.80, but only 6.2 IP). Felipe Rivero is a good closer, but it is the all the usual suspects between the starters and Rivero as Huntington and Clint Hurdle cobble together the '18 version of the bullpen. Again, spring training stats don't mean anything, and both Williams and Kuhl have shown signs of being, if not aces, at least decent big league starting pitchers. The team is pinning a lot on Musgrove, but I'm betting he won't be nearly as good as the guy he is replacing in the rotation, Gerrit Cole.
What does it all mean? Well, the Pirates won 75 games last year, and if you set that as the over/under number for wins for this team, I would have to bet the Under. I'll predict 73 wins for them in 2018. Any number of wins over last season's total of 75 would have to be a surprise, and if they should exceed a .500 record, then Clint Hurdle should be the Manager of the Year.
Is this going to stop me from following the Pirates? Nah. As upset as I was and still am with the direction the team took this past off season, I just can't bring myself to swear off of them for good because of it. The Pirates are just too deeply embedded in my DNA. Again, I am not happy with how things went this off-season, and they are going to really have to play well to re-earn my usual annual commitment of going to see 12-15 games a season.
Again, none of this is the fault of the Pirates players, and I will be pulling for them. As for the guys in the suits, that's another story.
As always......LET'S GO BUCS!!!!
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