I have always said that I would wait until a team played about 30 games, and batters accumulated around 100 at bats, and pitchers got a reasonable amount of innings under their belts before making any pronouncements on a team and a season. Well we are now at that point. The Pirates have played 31 games and sit at 16-15, good for fourth place in the NL Central, three games behind the first place Cubs.
They got to this point with, thus far, three distinct periods of this still young season.
The started at 12-6 and sat in first place. This was sparked by unbelievably terrific starting pitching from Jameson Taillon, Trevor Williams, Chris Archer, Joe Musgrove, and Jordan Lyles. It also featured some, shall we say, "uneven" work from the bullpen with set-up guys Richard Rodriguez and Keone Kela coughing up leads that they were brought in to protect, often times by giving up soul-crushing home runs. Still, 12-6 was good for first place at that time.
There then followed an 0-8 tailspin wherein the starting pitchers regressed a bit and the hitters failed to, well, hit. More on that later.
They have just completed a five game stretch where they have gone 4-1.
Before looking at the shortcomings, let's focus on three guys who have more than held their own.
The offensive performance of Josh Bell was a big question going into the season, and he has more than delivered. He is batting .287 and leads the team with 8 home runs and 25 RBIs. His OPS is .981. Can't ask for much more than that. Critics keep mentioning that he is less than elegant defensively at first base, to which I say, if he keeps hitting like this, the Pirates will live with his shortcomings with the leather. I always said that if Pedro Alvarez could only have managed to hit .260 or so, he'd still be playing at first for the Pirates. (Well, he would have been gone by now via trade or free agency because the Pirates wouldn't have paid the going rate, but you get my drift.)
All-Star reliever Felipe Vazquez has been absolutely lights out as the team's closer. In fourteen games and 15.2 IP, he is 1-0 with a 0.57 ERA, 26 K to only 5 BB, and nine saves in nine opportunities. He would probably have even more saves but for the performances of Rodriguez and Kela alluded too above.
And then there is rookie outfielder Brian Reynolds.
Reynolds came to the Pirates from the Giants in the Andrew McCutchen trade last year. He should probably still be in Triple-A, but injuries forced the Pirates to bring him to Pittsburgh. He has responded by hitting in his first eleven games, and batting .405 (albeit in only 37 ABs) with one HR and four RBIs. He will undoubtedly cool off, but until then, he's not leaving Pittsburgh any time soon.
Now, what are the concerns?
Injuries. The Pirates have had a litany of guys on the Injured List, including starters and guys expected to play big roles like Corey Dickerson, Starling Marte, Gregory Polanco, and Lonnie Chisenhall. Now starting pitchers Taillon and Archer are on the IL, so what has been the strength of the team, it's starting pitching, now has some big question marks.
Lack of offense. It is at the point where if the Pirates fall behind by three or four runs, there is almost no hope that they have what it takes to overcome such a deficit. consider these batting averages:
Adam Frazier .257
Colin Moran .239
Starling Marte .211
Cole Tucker .208
Jung Ho Kang .146 (with 30 Ks in 82 ABs)
Francisco Cervelli .176
Too many weak spots in that batting order for any team to contend. It is a batting order that forces its pitchers to hold the opponents to two or fewer runs a game, and that is just not sustainable over 162 games.
A word on Cole Tucker. Like Reynolds, he was brought up from Indianapolis, probably too soon, due to injuries on the big club. He probably needed to get a couple of hundred AB's in Indy this season before advancing to Pittsburgh, but he does appear to be the real goods, a kid well worth that first round draft selection in 2014. He is over matched at times by NL pitching right now, but he can and will hit, and for sure he is a major league short stop defensively right now. He may well be the next "Face of the Franchise" for the Pirates.
Conclusions? Well, they now sit at 16-15, and appear to be a team that will be flirting with that .500 mark throughout the season. My Las Vegas bet in January, that the Pirates will win "Over 79.5 Games" will probably not be decided until the last week of September, which will certainly cause me to maintain interest right to the end.
The Grandstander will check in once again at the One-Third Pole, or fifty-four game mark, of the season.
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