Oscars Thoughts.....

My observations on the Academy Awards presentation this past Sunday evening.....

• I will start by acknowledging what has been almost universally hailed as the highlight of the evening, Lady Gaga and Bradley Cooper calmly leaving their front row seats and going on stage to sing "Shallows", the Best Original Song Oscar winner.  

• It was a great performance, and the fact that it was presented on television from the stage, even with and  behind the performers so as to see the audience, made it even better.
• I didn't miss the fact that there was no host for the show.  That certainly made the show move quicker as it eliminated the need for said host to crack lame jokes every time he introduced the next presenters.
• That said, I did miss an opening monolog.  They are usually pretty funny.
• I also missed the host coming on at about 10:45 in the night and saying "well, we've reached the halfway point, folks."  That joke is like DiMaggio's streak: it's been told at 56 consecutive Academy Awards shows, and now it's over.
• One critique that I read of "Roma" leading up to the show was that, while it might be a wonderful piece of film making, it was also self-indulgent and the "most expensive home movie ever made".  Had it won Best Picture, I might - might - have felt complied to see it.   Now, I don't have to. 
• I have not seen "The Favourite".  Perhaps Olivia Coleman deserved that Best Actress Oscar, perhaps she didn't (and, hey, she did give a great and heartfelt acceptance speech), but I feel really bad that Glenn Close did not win it. This was her seventh Oscar nomination, and she has never won.  She turns 72 next month, and you wonder if she'll ever get another chance.
• I expressed my thoughts in this space a few days ago stating that of the three nominated movies that I had seen, my vote for Best Picture would have gone to "Green Book", so, say it with me now.....I believe I had that!
• Department of How to Make the Academy Awards Show Shorter.....The performances of four nominated Best Original Songs took ten minutes and twelve seconds.  Yeah, I timed them (what a nerd).  Don't perform those songs every year and you shorten the show.  Of course, you do that and ABC cannot promote an appearance of Lady Gaga (or, in prior years, Barbra Streisand, Bruce Springsteen, or Lin-Manuel Miranda to juice up the ratings).  And of course, if you did that this year, we would have missed what was the best part of the evening (see first bullet point above).
• I realize that the death of Stanley Donen on Saturday happened too close to the show to get his name and photo included in the filmed In Memoriam tribute, but wouldn't you think that someone, anyone, could have mentioned the loss of this industry giant at some point during the course of the show?
• In closing, a salute to the four Oscar winning actors of 2018....

Rami Malek, Olivia Coleman, Regina King, Mahershala Ali

Wrapping Up the Oscars

I will begin my post mortem of Sunday evening's Oscar Awards telecast by stating that I had my best year ever in predicting the Oscars.  I made eight predictions, was wrong on the Best Supporting Actress pick only because I figure that you have to pick at least one upset, right?  On the other seven picks....I believe I had that.

This points out what was perhaps the major disappointment of the evening.  There were no surprises.  Everything went according to chalk.  Maybe it is the glut of all the other awards shows leading up the the Oscars that serve as indicators, maybe it is the fact that there is just so much information out there on the interwebs that makes you so much better informed about these things. Whatever the reason, the fact that all the awards winners are so predictable does take some of the fun out of the show itself.

In any event, some final thoughts on the Oscars and the telecast.....

• Having seen seven of the nine movies nominated for Best Picture, I had stated that I would be happy if any of four movies took down the big prize - "The Post", "Get Out", "Lady Bird", and, of course, the one that did indeed take home the Best Picture Award:

• So I'm not going to complain.
• I also want to note the winners of the four acting awards:

Sam Rockwell, Frances McDormand, Allison Janney, Gary Oldman

• I was happy to see Jordan Peele take home an Oscar for his "Get Out" screenplay.  That really was an Oscar worthy movie.  I'm also glad that we did see it last Monday, if for no other reason than to get the joke about what would happen if any winners' acceptance speeches went on too long.
• We spent Sunday afternoon at the Cinemark watching screenings of all nominees for Best Live Action Short Film and Best Animated Short Film.  This is a great service that Cinemark does, and it enabled us to see some pretty neat films.  Not sure if I would have selected "The Silent Child" and "Dear Basketball", but I'm not going to say that they weren't deserving, either.  This is the second time that we have done this, and we look forward to making it an annual event.
• For the second year in a row, I really enjoyed Jimmy Kimmel as host.  His opening monologue was funny, and after that, he kept the traffic moving.
• The bit about awarding a jet-ski to the winner, with Helen Mirren serving as the game show model, was a good one, and they actually showed the guy who won it in the jet-ski at the end of the show while holding up his Oscar.  Good stuff.
• I also liked the piece where Kimmel and many others went to a movie theater across the street to surprise movie goers by having Oscar nominees handing out snacks to them.  You need a bit of coming relief like that on the show and that one was pretty good.  Some people complained that it took too much time, but here's my suggestion to cut down on the length of the show.....
• Get rid of the Best Original Song category.  In true "Get Off My Lawn" fashion, I maintain that with very rare exceptions, this ceased to be a relevant category since Henry Mancini was winning this award n a regular basis.  Then each nominated song gets performed (and in some cases, over-performed) during the telecast.  Eliminate the category, or at least eliminate the performances, and your show is then 20-25 minutes shorter.
• Bringing out Faye Dunaway and Warren Beatty to once again present the Best Picture winner after the fiasco of last year was a master stroke.  Both Dunaway and Beatty handled it with great grace and humor and were good sports about it.  I also loved how Beatty made sure to have winner Guillermo del Toro double check the card and how del Toro held it up to the audience and gave a thumbs up signal.
• Every year it seems, there is at least one movie that I really liked that gets a passel of nominations and proceeds to get shut out when they hand out the awards.  I recent years, such movies have been "American Hustle", "The Martian", "Brooklyn", and "Hidden Figures".  This year two such movies fell into that category, "Lady Bird" and "The Post".

Then, of course, there is what I call the "test of time" winner.  That is, of all the movies that won and/or were nominated, which am I likely to watch again and again well into the future.  Of the four movies that I mentioned in the first bullet point of this essay, I can see me watching all of them either by owning the DVD, or catching them on one TV platform or another in the years ahead.  Of course, this is not a foolproof method of determine the Best Picture.  If it were, then "Caddyshack" would be considered the greatest movie ever made.

In conclusion, I am planning on celebrating Frances McDormand's Oscar victory of Sunday night this afternoon by watching "Fargo", her first Oscar winning performance.  You betcha!

My Oscar Predictions

The world, insofar as it is comprised of my minimal readership, has been anxiously awaiting The Grandstander's Annual Oscar Predictions, so pull up a chair and read on.

I can not offer a totally informed opinion, but I have seen seven of the nine set Picture nominees, thirteen of the twenty Acting nominees, four of the five Director nominees, and five of the ten Screenwriting nominees.  I will also base my predictions on how other awards have been given this year, and what I have been hearing on a couple of movie based podcasts that I  follow.

In the wake of the #oscarssowhite movement of a few years back and the #metoo and #timesup movement of this past year, the Motion Picture Academy is in a position to recognize African-American and female artists this year in both the Screenwriting and Directing categories in the persons of Greta Gerwig and Jordan Peele.

Gerwig and Peele have been nominated in both categories for their respective films, "Lady Bird" and "Get Out".  Both movies were among my favorites of the year, and it will be interesting to see how this plays out as the envelopes, hopefully the correct ones this year, will be opened tomorrow night.

So, here we go in the Big Eight categories, or as will call it this year, "Eight Predictions Outside McCandless, Pennsylvania".

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

This is the one category where I have seen none of the five movies nominated, so this will be just a SWAG on my part.   I am just going to play a hunch and say that the Oscar will go to James Ivory for "Call Me By Your Name".  That's all this one is - a hunch.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

This is one category where I have seen all nominees.  This is also a most interesting category because the winner in this one has been Best Picture winner in recent years ("Argo" and "Spotlight" to name two), and this is where Gerwig and Peele will face off for the first time of the evening.  This is also the only category where one of my favorite movies of 2017, "The Big Sick", received any love from the Academy, so I'd love to see Kumail Nanjiani and Emily V. Gordon win the award, but I think the winner will be Jordan Peele for "Get Out".

DIRECTOR

I originally postulated that this would be the category wherein the Academy would recognize "Dunkirk" and award the Oscar to Christopher Nolan, but every indicator leading up to Oscar night tells you that the winner will be Guillermo del Toro for "The Shape of Water", and The Grandstander will not buck the trend. Del Toro it shall be.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Allison Janney of "I, Tonya" has won every conceivable award in this category leading up to Oscar night, so it seems almost preordained that she will win this for her over-the-top portrayal of Tonya Harding's mother.  Upon reflection, I have heard a lot of people say that Laurie Metcalf gave a much more nuanced performance as Saoirse Ronan's mother in "Lady Bird".  So, on the theory that you have to pick at least one upset, I am calling a win for Laurie Metcalf for "Lady Bird".  

My $.02.....One of the very best acting performances I saw all last year was turned in by Holly Hunter in "The Big Sick".  The fact that she was not nominated in this category is a huge injustice in my mind.  

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Like Allison Janney, Sam Rockwell of "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri" has been winning all the pre-Oscar awards in this category, but in my opinion, he wasn't even the best supporting actor in that same movie.  That would have been Woody Harrelson, and he, Harrelson, would be a much more deserving winner.  However, I will not go against the tide here.  The winner will be Sam Rockwell for "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri".

ACTRESS

Another category in which I have seen all five nominees, and all of them, Sally Hawkins, Frances McDormand, Margot Robbie, Saoirse Ronan, and Meryl Streep, were brilliant.  In another category that seems almost preordained, I will go with the prevailing wind and call for a win for Frances McDormand of "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri".   Readers know that I was not a fan of this movie.  I thought that it was an unpleasant story about very unpleasant people, but there is no denying the performance of McDormand.  She was totally convincing in this part.  This will be her second Oscar, but I will tell you that I liked her a lot better as Marge Gunderson in "Fargo".

My $.02....Two years ago, I loved Saoirse Ronan as the young Irish immigrant in 1952 in the wonderful movie "Brooklyn". She was nominated for that performance and did not win.  In "Lady Bird", she plays a contemporary American high school senior, and she is equally brilliant. She won't win again this year, but her day is coming.  If any young actress will become the "next Meryl Streep", is will be Ronan.  She is just terrific.

ACTOR

Not going to waste much space on this one.  The slam dunk winner in this category will be Gary Oldman for his portrayal of Winston Churchill in "Darkest Hour".  No other performance of the last year can touch it.

BEST PICTURE

Now, the biggie.  As of last week, if I had a vote in this thing, I was torn among three movies: "Lady Bird", "The Post", and "The Shape of Water".  If any three of those won, I would be happy.  Then, just this past Monday night, I saw "Get Out", and it is a movie that I just can't get out of my mind.  It is a horror movie on the face of it, but it has many layers to it that makes it so much more than that.  Honestly, Marilyn and I have been talking about it pretty much all week since we have seen it.  So, "Get Out" now becomes the fourth movie that I would be happy if it were to win.

So, what will win?  My official prediction is that "The Shape of Water" will take home the big prize, but let me offer this.  The Best Picture category is the only category where the electors give a weighted vote.  In all other categories, you vote for one person.  Period.  For Best Picture, the voter gives a ranked voted - first, second, third, etc - like the MVP voting in baseball.  This can allow a sleeper, a movie that gets a lot of second and third place votes to sneak in and win when opinions on other movies can be highly divergent among the electorate.  It has been speculated that such divergence exists between "The Shape of Water" and "Three Billboards...", and if that manifests itself among the voters, a  sleeper like "Lady Bird" or "Get Out" might end up winning the Best Picture Award.  A key indicator for this, to which I alluded earlier, might come in the Original Screenplay award.   Should Greta Gerwig or Jordan Peele take down that one, there might be a surprise when they open the envelope for Best Picture.

There you go.  Eight categories, eight predictions.  As always, Watch, but Don't Bet, and enjoy the show Sunday night.

Oscar Nominations Thoughts

Of course I have thoughts and comments on the Academy Awards nominations.....

• Nine Best Picture nominations.  I have seen five of them ("Darkest Hour", "Dunkirk", "Lady Bird", "The Post", "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri").  Of the four I have not seen, I will make it a point to see "Get Out" and "Phantom Thread".  "Call me By Your Name" and "The Shape of Water" hold no interest for me.
• I have seen only one of the Best Actor nominees, Gary Oldman, but that seems to be the only nominee that is going to matter this year.
• I have seen four of the Best Actress nominees.  Based on early returns, this one would appear to be in the bag for Frances McDormand, and while I didn't care for the movie, there is no denying the performance that McDormand gave.  Her little speech to the Catholic priest was chilling.
• If I had a vote, though, my vote for Best Actress would go to Saoirse Ronan for "Lady Bird". That the same actress who played an Irish immigrant in "Brooklyn" a few years ago can now convincingly play a 17 year old American high school student is nothing sort of remarkable.
• Meryl Streep scores her 21st Oscar nomination.  Heard a line on a podcast the other day saying that the only person in America who has anything that comes even close to that is Tom Brady.  Good line.
• Denzel Washington, a terrific actor, scores a Best Actor nomination for a move, "Roman J. Israel, Esq." that was in an out of theaters in about a week.  Did anyone actually SEE that movie?
• Best Supporting Actor award, again, based on early returns, would appear to go to Sam Rockwell for "Three Billboards".  However, in my own opinion, he wasn't even the best supporting actor in his own movie.  That would go to Woody Harrelson.  Rockwell's character, an incompetent, drunken, racist cop was played so broadly as to almost be a cartoon character.
• Do you think that Christopher Plummer's nomination was an indirect shot at the now disgraced Kevin Spacey, whom Plummer replaced in "All The Money In The World"?
• Allison Janney will probably win the Best Supporting Actress Award although Laurie Metcalf's performance was better.  However, the fact that Holly Hunter of "The Big Sick" did not get a nomination kind of diminishes this category for me. Her performance was better than both Janney's (which, like Rockwell's part, was also almost cartoonish) or Metcalf's.
• Interesting omissions for Best Director were Steven Speilberg ("The Post") and Martin McDonagh ("Three Billboards").
• An interesting person to watch for on Oscar night will be Greta Gerwig.  She is nominated for Best Director and Best Original Screenplay for "Lady Bird".   She could be the beneficiary, if that is the right word, of the Times Up movement that is sweeping Hollywood currently.
• That Original Screenplay category is an interesting to watch.  Emily V. Gordan and Kumail Nanjiani are nominated for "The Big Sick" which just might have been the best movie that I saw all last year, certainly in the top three, but it got no other love from the Academy.  Jordan Peele for "Get Out" and Gerwig were also nominated for Best Director, and this could be the way to reward either an African American (remember the #oscarssowhite controversy of a few years ago?) or a woman.  Also nominated is Martin McDonagh, who didn't get a Director nomination.  The other nominees are Guillermo del Toro and Vanessa Taylor for "The Shape of Water", a movie about a fish-man.  Like I said, an interesting category.
• I am not making any official predictions yet, but if I had to pick one right now in a category that doesn't appear to have a shoe-in candidate, I am going to say that the Academy will recognize "Dunkirk" by awarding the Best Director award to Christopher Nolan.

I'm sure that I shall be writing more on this topic as the day of the awards draw closer, and. of course, there will be my always highly anticipated "Watch, but don't bet" predictions post.  How many times will I be able to say, "I believe I had that"?