Just How Awful Are The Pirates Right Now?

Consider this post just a general bitch session, the rantings and ravings of a frustrated Pirates fan looking for a place to just get a few random thoughts off of his chest.

Here goes....

From Jason Mackey article in those morning's Pittsburgh Post-Gazette:

"....the latest bit of futility - Ji Hwan Bae, Jack Suwinski, Rudolpho Cstro, and Austin Hedges have combined for one (!) hit in their past 101 at-bats..."

Sit back and try to let that statistic sink in on you.  I can't even wrap my arms around that one.  And, yes, these guys are still playing every day.

What we saw in that weekend series in Miami, where the Bucs somehow managed to win one out of four, boggled the mind in terms of futility with runners in scoring position.   This was best exemplified when at one point late in one for those losses, the Pirates had runners on first and second, no outs, and Connor Joe's bunt attempt on the first pitch was popped up to the pitcher,  no runners advanced, and both of them died on the bases.  The Bucco announcers then informed that in his five year MLB career, Joe had NEVER laid down a successful sacrifice bunt.  Not one.  Where were the Pirates analytics nerds when they sent down that order to Sheltie and his sixteen man coaching staff?

As far as I know, "Pitch framing" was a concept that didn't even exist five years ago.  (Was Johnny Bench, the best catcher that I have ever seen play, ever lauded for his ability to "frame pitches"?)  Yet it is that very concept that is keeping this guy, Austin Hedges, in the every day lineup for this bunch.

 

Going into tonight's game with the Padres, Hedges is batting .160 - that's a one a six and a zero - in 131 AB's.  His On Base percentage is a paltry .231.   If you are a major league team, you don't have to have Johnny Bench or Yogi Berra as your catcher, you don't even have to have a guy like Russell Martin or Jason Kendall, but you absolutely cannot have a guy like Austin Hedges coming to bat 3 or 4 times a game either, no matter how well he "handles the pitching staff" because he stinks with a bat in his hands.

Hedges has become the negative face of the franchise during the Pirates decline in May and June.  Given how unproductive the rest of the team has been (see above), that may not be totally fair, but it's not totally unfair either.

And what about that decline in May and June?  We all know that in April the Pirates were the talk of MLB, they were 20-8 in first place in the NL Central, and only the Rays had a better record  This was right before the Rays convincingly swept a three game series against the Pirates doing the first week of May.  

Today the team is 35-42 (.455) and 5.5 games out of first and in fourth place in the division.  Since that 20-8 start, the team's record is 15-34 (.306), a pace that would produce a 50-112 record over 162 games.  That's not just bad, it is historically bad for this franchise.

Prior to the season, the Over/Under on Pirates wins was set at 67.5.  As I never want to be in a position of rooting for them to lose games, I placed a modest wager on the OVER.  This would represent a six game improvement over the 2022 season, and I figured we wouldn't know the result until the last week of the season.  At 20-8, this bet looked like a sure fire win for the OVER betters,  At 35-42, not so much.  For those betters to cash  awning ticket, the team will need to go 33-52 (.388) the rest of the way, and given how they've been playing the last two months, that is far from a sure thing.

In a team that specializes in public relations disasters, two juicy ones loom ahead, possibly.  

First, the Pirates hold the overall #1 pick in the upcoming amateur draft.  It is gospel among those who know that that pick will be either LSU outfielder Dylan Crews or LSU pitcher Paul Skenes, each of whom are said to be ready NOW to play in the big leagues.  Will the team select one of these sure fire players, or will they avoid Scott Boras and draft yet another high school short stop?  Pirates fans are on the edge of their seats.

Second, and this is probably just sports talk radio bullshit, but it has been reported that other teams have expressed interest in acquiring Andrew McCutchen in a possible deadline deal.  Back in January, when the Pirates re-signed Cutch, I wrote the following:

And don't think that this might not possibly occur.  Let's say that McCutchen discovers the fountain of youth (possibly from one of the new bars the team is putting into PNC Park) and by the All-Star Break has 15 HR, 50 RBI and is hitting in the .270 range.   The team still stinks and is headed for a 90-95 loss season.  Will GMBC then try to trade Andrew McCutchen to a contender in need of a hot bat in exchange for a basket full of prime prospects?  Will the Pirates become the first franchise in history to be pilloried TWICE by its fan base for trading the same player?

Personally, I find it hard to believe that even the Pirates would risk the PR nightmare that this would create, but would I be totally surprised if it did happen?  Nah!

Okay, that's enough for now.  My head is starting to hurt.  

A Really Bad Stretch for the Pirates

Back on April 26, I wrote THIS ARTICLE about the then 16-7 Pittsburgh Pirates that highlighted the fact that they were about to enter a critical eighteen game stretch wherein twelve of those games would be against upper echelon, by record at least, MLB teams: three each against the Dodgers, Rays, Blue Jays, and Orioles.  

Here is what followed:

• Won 2 of three from Los Angeles.  Good.
• Won the first two games of a three game series with the Nationals.  The score of that second game was 16-1, and it pushed the Pirates' record to 20-9, second only the the Rays in all of MLB.
• They lost the third game of that series to the Nats and then the slide began.
• 0-3 against the Rays.
• 0-3 against the Blue Jays.
• 1-2 against the Rockies.
• 1-2 against the Orioles

Not only did they go 2-11 over the course of this streak, but it wasn't until the eleventh game after that 16-1 win over the Nats that the Pirates scored their 17th run of that streak.  Eleven games to score more runs than they did in that blowout of Washington.

In the only games that they won, 2-0 over the Rockies and 2-0 over the Orioles, were behind a complete game shutout and seven shutout innings pitched by Mitch Keller.  In the entire month of May, Keller has been the only, and I mean THE ONLY bright spot on the team.  The team has been exposed to be very weak offensively, and while they are still stealing bases at a high clip, they are still prone to jaw dropping gaffes on the base paths.  In one of the games, the Bucs had three runners thrown out at third base.  Not something you see every day in the big leagues.

Earlier this week, the Pirates split a two game series with Detroit and the hitters showed some signs of coming back to life with an 8-0 win on Wednesday.  They are now 23-20 and one game out of first place in the NL Central, and would you have signed on for that at the beginning of the season?  Sure you would have, but the Jekyll and Hyde performances of the April Pirates vs. the May Pirates certainly gives one cause for concern. 

Tonight begins a six game home stand against the Diamondbacks and Rangers.  Let's see where they stand relative to .500 at the conclusion of those six games.

And how long before we start seeing some of these prized prospects like Henry Davis, Endy Rodriguez, Nick Gonzales, and Quinn Priester in Pittsburgh instead of retreads like Mike Mathias and Chris Owings, to name two?

The Reynolds Contract and Twelve Key Games Upcoming for the Pirates

From the long term point of view, yesterday was a very good day for the Pittsburgh Pirates when it became known that the team and outfielder Brian Reynolds agreed to an eight year contract extension worth $106 million in guaranteed money.   It is the largest guaranteed contract for any Pittsburgh professional athlete in history, and it came from Bob Nutting and the Pirates.  By all accounts, this is a good deal for both sides (I'll spare all the nitty-gritty details; you can find such info elsewhere in the interwebs if you so desire), and it gives the fan base what we have all been screaming about for years: a sign that the Pirates are willing to finally pay to keep a key player.  

Time, of course, will tell if this turns out to be a good deal for the Pirates, but for today at least, we all need to give the team - and Bob Nutting - their due.  They've stepped up to the plate and delivered for once.  Will they continue to do so?

All that aside, five days ago I wrote about how surprisingly well the team had been in the opening weeks of the season. At the close of this past  weekend, the team's record was 16-7, the best in the National League.  Admittedly, save for three games against the Astros, the Pirates had faced weaker teams in the the League.  Last night, however they began an 18 game stretch wherein twelve of those games would be played against stronger teams with winning records: the Dodgers, Rays, Blue Jays, and Orioles.  It could be said that how the team fares in those twelve games will tell us a lot in how sustainable the Bucs' early success might be.  What would be considered a successful record for the Pirates in those twelve games?  What would convince you that maybe, possibly, perhaps the 2023 version of the Pirates are on the brink of something really good? 

On the theory that you should beat up on the bad teams and break even with the good teams (generally speaking, of course), then I would say that anywhere from 5-7 to 7-5 or better in this stretch would be considered a good run for the team.  4-8 or worse would certainly make one nervous, would it not?  This run began poorly last night when the Pirates blew a 7-2 lead and lost to the Dodgers, so let's hope that they can bounce back tonight and tomorrow.

Oh, and sandwiched among those twelve games are three games apiece against the Nationals and Rockies.  The Bucs swept Colorado in a three game series in Denver last week, and the Nats are well on their way to contending for the worst record in MLB this year, so it behooves the Pirates to take care of business in those six games as they battle against the Big Boys in the league over the next three weeks.

 

The Pirates - 20 Games In

I usually wait for more than twenty games to be played before commenting on how the Pirates are shaping up in any given season, but the start of the 2023 season has been so surprising, so above expectations, and so downright fun, that I couldn't wait any longer to opine on the subject.

The team now stands at 13-7, in second place in the NL Central, 1.5 goes behind the Brewers, and they are tied for the second best record in the National League.  Who besides Pirates Chief Propaganda Minister Greg Brown saw that coming?  They are playing good and winning baseball, and they are doing so with a  joie de vivre that is so infectious, that you can't wait to watch the next game.  From the drawing of an imaginary sword when someone gets a hit, to the rubber sword that they wield in the dugout after someone hits a home run, to the outfielders doing jumping chest bumps and the infielders doing that goofy dance after every win, you just see a spirit there that you haven't seen for a number of years with the Bucs.

Then there was the McCutchen-like leap from Ji Hwan Bae after his walk-off three run home run against the Astros earlier in the month.

There has been excellent starting pitching led by Mitch Keller, Roansy Contreras, and Juan Oviedo (the team has had a dozen consecutive games from pitchers going at least six innings), some excellent relief work from guys like Dauri Moreta, Robert Stephenson, Colin "H.R." Holderman, and Duane Underwood, leading to All-Star closer David Bender.

The hitting was led by Brian Reynolds who has cooled off a bit from a first week of the season where he had 5 HR's and 14 RBI's, but his cooling off has been accompanied by Jack Suwinski heating up and hitting 5 HR's is recent games.  Perhaps the most amazing performance thus far, however, has been that of Andrew McCutchen.

McCutchen's signing in the off-season was seen by many, including The Grandstander, as a cynical attempt by Cheapskate Bob Nutting to sell tickets and spread a coat of whitewash over the generally lousy performance of the team over the past three seasons.   Through the first 12.3% of the season, however, the signing of McCutchen may prove to be one of the best moves that the Pirates have made since, well, drafting Andrew McCutchen back in 2005.  He has seemed to eagerly adopt the "elder statesman/leader in the clubhouse" role on a team that for the most part is comprised of younger players.   And he has shown that he can still play.   While playing right field and DH'ing, he has hit .290 with 5 HR, 9 RBI, 10 Runs scored, and carrying OPS of .943, and you could make the case that he has been the best player on the team.

Of course, it hasn't all been sweetness and light, and the one event of the year casting an early shadow was the fractured ankle of Oniel Cruz during the first week of the season.  The most optimistic outlook mentioned thus far is that Cruz will be out for four months, which would get him back in the lineup in mid to late August.  The team has weathered his absence thus far, but it is almost impossible not to think that the long term effects of that injury will be disastrous for the Bucs.  To their credit, no one connected with the team has taken a "woe is us" attitude.  Rather, it has been, "we'll get guys to pick up the slack and move on."

The team still is a flawed one, and no one expects pennant or even post season contention for the Pirates, but they have shown improvement, and they have been, as I said at the outset, a blast to watch.  It would be nice to think that they could maintain this level of performance through, say June, and then, well, who in the Hell knows what might happen.  So in the meantime, we'll just keep raising the Jolly Roger.

Beat 'em Bucs!

 

Opening Day 2023

Today is Opening Day.  For the last six weeks, I have pretty much ignored watching Spring Training games or caring about which players are doing well and which are failing miserably, but today?  Today the games marked indifference felt during Spring Training will be replaced by actually caring (to the extent that one actually "cares" about sporting events) about the games being played, and for the next six months, we will pretty much have games to watch, listen to, read about, wager on, and enjoy, and that is a good thing.

Yes, I know all about the inequities of the the game as practiced by Major League Baseball, and how the shitty ownership by Bob "Mr. Dithers" Nutting has turned the Pittsburgh Pirates, a team that I have loved for sixty-four years now, into an irrelevant joke, but I still love the Pirates, still root for them, still will watch.  Maybe that makes me part of the problem, but there you go.

The Pirates have lost 100 games for the last two years - and would have been last three years had not COVID made for a sixty game season in 2020 - so what possible reason for hope can there be that it will be any better in 2023?   

How about this?

• The addition of Old Guys Andrew McCutchen, Ji-Man Choi, Carlos Santana, Rich Hill, and Vincent Velasquez to provide leadership and, we hope, some actual quality baseball ability.
• The continued development of Young Guys Oneil Cruz, Ke'Bryan Hayes, Jack Suwinski, Rudolpho Castro, Mitch Keller, Johan Oviedo, and Roansy Contrras.  Plus, a couple of new names like Canaan Smith-Njigba, and the hopes of seeing guys like Quinn Priester and Endy Rodriguez at PNC Park sometime this summer.

On the other hand, there is the concern as to whether or not the team's best player, Brian Reynolds will sign a long term contract (fat chance of that, given the team's well known modus operandi) and whether or not he will be here for the entire season.  Oh, and the bullpen consists of David Bednar and a bunch of other guys.  And the two catchers will combine for a sub-.200 batting average, but boy, can they frame pitches.  

I bet the OVER on 67.5 wins for the team this year, which means a minimum of a six game improvement over 2021's 62-100 record.  We won't know until the last week of the season whether they will be able to pull that off, but it will give us a reason to watch right down to the wire.

On a broader sense, I am very much looking forward to watching baseball with the pitch clock.   As I said, I watched very little spring training baseball, maybe six or eight innings, tops, but it was immediately apparent to me that the pace of the game had improved dramatically as a result of this change, and time of game stats that MLB has been bombarding us with all Spring bears this out.  It will be a real joy to know that games you attend or watch on TV that start at 7:00 will be over, for the most part, well before 10:00.

Enjoy the season, everyone.

 

Mitch Keller gets the ball for the Pirates this Opening Day