The Pirates at the 1/5 Pole

For all you mathematical sticklers out there, I will stipulate that the Pirates, having played 31 games are only at the 19.1% mark of the season, are not exactly at the 1/5 Pole, so please save your comments on that facet of this post at least.

Okay, the Pirates are at 17-14, a pace that would earn them 89 wins (the exact number predicted by The Grandstander, btw), not great, but not bad, and a mark that would certainly have them in contention for at least a Wild Card spot in the post season.  That's the good news.

The bad news is that the Chicago Cubs have a record of 24-6 (which includes a 3-0 series pasting of the Pirates at PNC Park last week), and are seven and one-half games ahead of the second place Pirates.  The pace that the Cubs are currently on (.800) would have them winning 130 games this season.  Certainly, they are not going to remain on that pace over 162 games, and certainly Jake Arietta, 24-1 over his last twenty-five regular season starts, will not maintain that pace either (he really can't, can he?), and 7.5 games can certainly be made up over the next 131 games, but.....

Yep, there's a but, and it revolves around the Pirates starting pitching, which has been, somewhat mediocre this season, and the bullpen, which has been lousy.  A perfect example would be yesterday's performance of Ryan Vogelsong.  With the Pirates having a five run lead over the Cardinals, Vogelsong was brought in to pitch the ninth inning.  He got one out and loaded the bases and had to be relieved.  When you can't get out of an inning with a five run lead, well, that ain't good, folks.

Also, and in the true tradition of Pirates fans, let's dwell on the past for a bit, by comparing departed Buccos to the current guys who have replaced them.

How about new first baseman John Jaso and his predecessor, Pedro Alvarez.

	John Jaso	Pedro Alvarez
AB	106	63
Runs	14	4
HR	3	2
RBI	12	7
K	12	15
BB	11	11
BA	0.302	0.206
OPS	0.841	0.701

Of course, Pedro does not have a comparable number of at bats with the Orioles, but when you look at the BA and the OPS, you'd have to say that Jaso is doing more than an adequate job in replacing Alvarez.  I know what you're going to say, "Let's see if Jaso hits those 27 homers that Pedro did."  Fair point, and Jaso will probably not hit half that number of dingers, but if that average and OPS stay on track, I'll take it.  And while I do not have the defensive metrics at hand, the eye test tells me that Jaso in the field has more than lapped Pedro in that department.

And then there is the loss of the Pittsburgh Kid, Neil Walker.  Josh Harrison has replaced him at second base.

	Josh Harrison	Neil Walker
AB	116	112
Runs	13	14
HR	1	9
RBI	17	19
K	18	24
BB	5	6
BA	0.319	0.259
OPS	0.761	0.806

Hard to make the call on this one.  Harrison is outhitting Walker by sixty points, and has only one fewer run scored and two fewer RBIs despite the fact that Walker has out homered him 9-1.  Walker's OPS is forty-five points higher, they both strike out a lot and don't walk enough.  Using the same eye test that I used above with Jaso and Alvarez, I would say that Walker is better with the leather than Harrison, but not by all that much.  I call this a toss up.

Of course, the real judgment on the Neil Walker trade is the performance of the guy who came here in exchange for him.  Pitcher Jon Niese is currently 3-1 with a 5.94 ERA, 1.68 WHIP, and a BA Against of .309. Right now, that trade is heavily skewed in favor of the Mets.

Some more good news: the Pirates are now 10-8 against NL Central Division teams.  Better than last year, but that record also includes an 0-3 mark against the Cubs.

Oh, and one other statistical anomaly concerning the Cubs.  As of this morning, their 7.5 game lead over the second place Pirates, is greater than the lead of the first place team over the fifth place team in three of the other five divisions.  And take away the terrible Braves and Twins in their divisions, and the fourth place teams in those divisions are closer to first place than the Pirates are to the Cubs.  So much for all the hype over the superiority of the NL Central, competitiveness-wise.

Conclusions?  None to be made at this point.  The pitching has to get better, and Jameson Taillon and Tyler Glasnow are banging on the door with sledge hammers down there in Indy.  Also, someone has to start slowing down the Cubs.  The Washington Nationals, nominally the second best team in the NL had the chance to do so this weekend and went 0-4.  (The Nats, by the way, are now nominally the third best team in the NL as a result.) Is it too much to ask the Pirates to begin that process this coming weekend with that three game series in Wrigley?  It will be right in front of them.

I'm not ready to give up, nor am I ready to concede the World Series to the Cubs at this point, but better pitching from the Pirates and the slowing down of the Cubs need to start soon.

Let's Talk a Little Baseball....

The Pittsburgh Pirates are three weeks into Spring Training, and I have yet to write a word about the 2016 Bucs, so it's time to throw out the metaphorical first pitch of the season and talk about our favorite baseball team.  In fact, I look forward to, after finishing writing this little monograph and posting it, turning on my TV and watching the Pirates in a little Grapefruit League action this afternoon.  

To summarize, let me restate that the Pirates won 98 games last year, but lost in the Wild Card round of the National League post-season. With the exception of that final shut out loss to the Cubs, I can honestly state that the ride that the '15 Pirates took me on was one of the most enjoyable ones that I had in 56 seasons of following the team.  So the question becomes - Can the team sustain and build upon a three year run of making the post-season?  

Coming back from that 98 win team are....Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte, Gregory Polanco (arguably one of the top outfields in all of MLB), Jung Ho Kang (who, at the time of his injury, was probably the team's second best player), Josh Harrison, Jordy Mercer, Francisco Cervelli, Gerrit Cole, Francisco Liriano, Tony Watson, Jerrod Hughes, and Mark Melancon.  Good news!

Then, of course, there are the important players from last year who are no longer here: A.J. Burnett, J.A. Happ, Neil Walker, and Pedro Alvarez.  In fact, Alvarez, who was unemployed until just two days ago when he signed with the Orioles, is still probably being talked about more on various Pirates social media sites than any current Pirate.  It appears that Pedro will continue to cast a  shadow over the Pirates for at least the next season.

So, in an effort to keep things Pedro-centric, let's talk about how the Pirates will manage to fill the twenty-six home run hole that Pedro's release created in their line up.  All indications are that the Pirates will open the season with a platoon of first base consisting of righthand batter Michael Morse and lefthand batter John Jaso.  Personally, I think that a platoon situation can work for the Pirates at first base this season, but will it?  

Many people, and people whose opinions I highly respect, are already writing off Morse, who will be 34 years old as of Opening Day,  as a stiff and a bum.  Based on his 2015 season, split between Miami and Pittsburgh, the prospects are not encouraging.  In 256 plate appearances, Morse hit .231 with 5 HR and 19 RBI, and a .649 OPS.  However, over a four year period of 2009-12 with the Nationals, Morse complied a .294 BA  and .857 OPS with 67 HR and 208 RBI in 1,353 plate appearances.  As recently as 2014 with the World Series winning Giants, Morse hit .279 with 16 HR, 61 RBI and .871 OPS.  The 2015 season was definitely a downturn for him, but was that season an aberration or a true indication of a career in decline? 

The other half of that 1B platoon is 32 year old John Jaso, who is hitting quite well thus far in the Grapefruit League for whatever that is worth.  Over a seven year career spent with Tampa Bay, Seattle, and Oakland, Jaso's "162 game average" season would produce a .263 BA, 11 HR, 60 RBI, and a .767 OPS.

Here are some more questions for you:

• Will Morse/Jaso equal or better  Pedro's .243 BA of 2015?  I think that they can.
• Will Morse/Jaso equal or better Pedro's 27 HR of 2015?  Probably not, but they could combine for 18-20 dingers.
• Will Morse/Jaso equal or better Pedro's 77 RBIs of 2015?  I think that they can.
• Will Morse/Jaso equal or exceed Pedro's 177 K's of 2015.  It is almost certain that they will not, which is good.
• Of course, my suppositions in these four points rest on the fact that 2015 was the aberrant year for Morse.  If, in fact, 2015 was the beginning of a career downslide, all bets are off.

What I did not mention, and what I have no way of knowing or proving, is how will an improved defense at first base will prevent other teams from scoring against the Pirates.  Even the staunchest of Pedro backers will concede that he was atrocious in the field, and all the advanced analytics folks will tell you that he was the worst defensive first baseman in all of baseball last year, and the next worse guy wasn't even close.

A solid, effective platoon at a given position can work and produce good results (See Bill Robinson/John Milner, 1979 Pirates).  I am not sold that it will happen at first base for the Pirates this year, but it is certainly possible that it can happen for them.  Remember, we were all hoping a few seasons back that a 1B platoon of Garrett Jones and Gaby Sanchez would do the trick, but it didn't quite work out that way.  However, as far as the 2016 Pirates go, it is vitally important that the Morse/Jaso Combo Platter clicks because the heir apparent at first base, Josh Bell, is by all accounts at least a year away from being ready for the big leagues.  

Lots more to follow on the Pirates as we wend our way towards Opening Day.