Pirates Home Runs in 2016; and a Final (?) Word On Pedro Alvarez

Last March the esteemed North Side Breakfast group had a semi-heated discussion concerning how many HR’s the Pirates would hit in 2016?  We went through the projected starting lineup, and both Jim Haller (JH) and Dan Bonk (DB) made actual predictions, and we also arrived at a consensus prediction.  Well, I saved those numbers (written on an Allegheny Sandwich Shoppe place mat), and today I compared them to the actual results, and here they are:

	JH Predicts	DB Predicts	Consensus	Actual
Harrison	13	10	10	4
Polanco	18	12	15	22
McCutchen	26	21	21	24
Marte	25	20	20	9
Kang	22	15	22	21
Cervelli	10	7	7	1
Mercer	12	8	8	11
“First Base”	20	10	10		29 HR @ 1B per pirates.com	SRod, Jaso, Bell
	146	103	113	92	92+29= 121
Rodriguez				18
Freese				13
Joyce				13
Jaso				8
Bell				3
Frazier				2
Cole				1
Liriano				1
Kratz				1
Stewart				1
HR in 2016				153
HR in 2015				140

These actual numbers are taken from the MLB stats on the Pirates website.  The site tells you that Pirates first basemen hit 29 HRs in 2016:  Sean Rodriguez 18, John Jaso 8, Josh Bell 3.  I am not sure if all of SRod’s homers came as a first basemen.  I am guessing that some of them came when he was playing another position, but that is a minor quibble.  If you accept the Pirates figures of 29 dingers from 1B, then the 121 HR’s produced by the starting lineup exceeded the estimates of Dan and the consensus, but fell well short of Jim’s projections.  As a team the Pirates hit 153 home runs, thirteen more than they hit in 2015.  No one except Jim saw that coming, but who knew that Rodriguez and Matt Joyce would combine for 31 home runs, and David Freese, who would add another 13 dingers, probably hadn't even by signed by the Pirates at the time we had this discussion. 

Another much asked question prior to this season was "How are the Pirates going to replace the 43 home runs and 148 RBIs Pedro Alvarez (27/77) and Neil Walker (16/71)?"

Well, they did and they didn't as it turned out.

Accepting the Pirates database, the 1B Troika of Rodriguez-Jaso-Bell (29 HR, 117 RBI) eclipsed Pedro's 27 and 77.

It was at second base where the team fell short.  Second basemen Josh Harrison and Adam Frazier combined for 6 home runs and 70 RBIs, well short of Walker's 16 circuit clouts, but only one short of his runs batted in.

And of course, no discussion of Pedro Alvarez can be made without discussing his defense.  Please note the lower portion of the chart below.

	Rodriguez	Jaso	Bell	Pedro Alvarez
At Bats	300	380	128	337
HR	18	8	3	22
RBI	56	42	19	49
BA	0.270	0.268	0.273	0.249
OPS	0.775	0.859	826	0.826
K	102	74	19	97
BB	33	45	21	37
FIELDING				2015:
Total Chances	191	800	174	1057
Errors	3	5	3	23
Fielding %	0.984	0.994	0.983	0.978
				2016:
Chances				9
Errors				4

In addition to the three current Pirate first sackers shown on the chart, David Freese also handled 378 chances with only 3 errors, and another five players played the position at various times, handling 34 chances with zero errors.  Regardless of how you slice-and-dice the Pirates offensive production at first base this past season, I don't think it can be questioned that they were better off defensively in 2016 at first than they were in 2015.

And as for Alvarez, still a subject of much discussion among Pirates fans, he seems to have found his niche in Baltimore as a platoon Designated Hitter.  Only 38 of his 337 AB's came against a left handed pitcher (1 HR, 6 RBI, .238 BA). He had very limited appearances on defense this season, fielding only nine chances and making four errors in the process.  

So, would the Pirates have been better off with Pedro in 2016 than they were without him?  It is a question that I am sure a large subset of Pirates fans will continue to beat to death on social media and talk shows.  One thing is for sure:  Pedro will be in the post season that begins tonight, while all of his former Bucco teammates will be watching on television, so I guess he is having the last laugh.

Let's Talk a Little Baseball....

The Pittsburgh Pirates are three weeks into Spring Training, and I have yet to write a word about the 2016 Bucs, so it's time to throw out the metaphorical first pitch of the season and talk about our favorite baseball team.  In fact, I look forward to, after finishing writing this little monograph and posting it, turning on my TV and watching the Pirates in a little Grapefruit League action this afternoon.  

To summarize, let me restate that the Pirates won 98 games last year, but lost in the Wild Card round of the National League post-season. With the exception of that final shut out loss to the Cubs, I can honestly state that the ride that the '15 Pirates took me on was one of the most enjoyable ones that I had in 56 seasons of following the team.  So the question becomes - Can the team sustain and build upon a three year run of making the post-season?  

Coming back from that 98 win team are....Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte, Gregory Polanco (arguably one of the top outfields in all of MLB), Jung Ho Kang (who, at the time of his injury, was probably the team's second best player), Josh Harrison, Jordy Mercer, Francisco Cervelli, Gerrit Cole, Francisco Liriano, Tony Watson, Jerrod Hughes, and Mark Melancon.  Good news!

Then, of course, there are the important players from last year who are no longer here: A.J. Burnett, J.A. Happ, Neil Walker, and Pedro Alvarez.  In fact, Alvarez, who was unemployed until just two days ago when he signed with the Orioles, is still probably being talked about more on various Pirates social media sites than any current Pirate.  It appears that Pedro will continue to cast a  shadow over the Pirates for at least the next season.

So, in an effort to keep things Pedro-centric, let's talk about how the Pirates will manage to fill the twenty-six home run hole that Pedro's release created in their line up.  All indications are that the Pirates will open the season with a platoon of first base consisting of righthand batter Michael Morse and lefthand batter John Jaso.  Personally, I think that a platoon situation can work for the Pirates at first base this season, but will it?  

Many people, and people whose opinions I highly respect, are already writing off Morse, who will be 34 years old as of Opening Day,  as a stiff and a bum.  Based on his 2015 season, split between Miami and Pittsburgh, the prospects are not encouraging.  In 256 plate appearances, Morse hit .231 with 5 HR and 19 RBI, and a .649 OPS.  However, over a four year period of 2009-12 with the Nationals, Morse complied a .294 BA  and .857 OPS with 67 HR and 208 RBI in 1,353 plate appearances.  As recently as 2014 with the World Series winning Giants, Morse hit .279 with 16 HR, 61 RBI and .871 OPS.  The 2015 season was definitely a downturn for him, but was that season an aberration or a true indication of a career in decline? 

The other half of that 1B platoon is 32 year old John Jaso, who is hitting quite well thus far in the Grapefruit League for whatever that is worth.  Over a seven year career spent with Tampa Bay, Seattle, and Oakland, Jaso's "162 game average" season would produce a .263 BA, 11 HR, 60 RBI, and a .767 OPS.

Here are some more questions for you:

• Will Morse/Jaso equal or better  Pedro's .243 BA of 2015?  I think that they can.
• Will Morse/Jaso equal or better Pedro's 27 HR of 2015?  Probably not, but they could combine for 18-20 dingers.
• Will Morse/Jaso equal or better Pedro's 77 RBIs of 2015?  I think that they can.
• Will Morse/Jaso equal or exceed Pedro's 177 K's of 2015.  It is almost certain that they will not, which is good.
• Of course, my suppositions in these four points rest on the fact that 2015 was the aberrant year for Morse.  If, in fact, 2015 was the beginning of a career downslide, all bets are off.

What I did not mention, and what I have no way of knowing or proving, is how will an improved defense at first base will prevent other teams from scoring against the Pirates.  Even the staunchest of Pedro backers will concede that he was atrocious in the field, and all the advanced analytics folks will tell you that he was the worst defensive first baseman in all of baseball last year, and the next worse guy wasn't even close.

A solid, effective platoon at a given position can work and produce good results (See Bill Robinson/John Milner, 1979 Pirates).  I am not sold that it will happen at first base for the Pirates this year, but it is certainly possible that it can happen for them.  Remember, we were all hoping a few seasons back that a 1B platoon of Garrett Jones and Gaby Sanchez would do the trick, but it didn't quite work out that way.  However, as far as the 2016 Pirates go, it is vitally important that the Morse/Jaso Combo Platter clicks because the heir apparent at first base, Josh Bell, is by all accounts at least a year away from being ready for the big leagues.  

Lots more to follow on the Pirates as we wend our way towards Opening Day.