Showing posts with label Phillip Rivers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Phillip Rivers. Show all posts

Thursday, January 23, 2020

NFL Quarterbacks in Transition 2020


The news that was leaked yesterday concerning the announcement that Giants quarterback Eli Manning will be formally announcing his retirement tomorrow, prompted me to sit and offer some comments that have been bubbling in my cranium (to use a Myron Cope-ism) for sometime now, and that is that the 2019 NFL season and post-season may be looked back upon at some future date as the year where an  "Old Guard" of outstanding and even Hall of Fame worthy cast of NFL quarterbacks gave way to a new wave of quarterbacks who will dominate the League for the next decade or so.

Let's begin with the three QB's who were drafted within the first eleven picks of the 2004 NFL Draft.

Eli Manning  Manning pretty much began showing signs of being washed up in the 2018 season.  The Giants drafted a QB in the first round last year, and Manning was benched early in this season.  His retirement comes as no surprise.  He was not the quarterback that his brother was, but he is a two time Super Bowl MVP, so his enshrinement in Canton is virtually assured.

Phillip Rivers  Rivers had a great season in 2018, and his Chargers made the playoffs, but his numbers were off this year, the team wasn't any good, and Rivers is an unrestricted free agent who undoubtedly will be playing with another team next year.  He might be able to help a good team who really needs a QB, but he is near the end of a good career.

Ben Roethlisberger  Big Ben left the second game of 2019 with an elbow injury that required surgery, and he was lost for the season.  He plans on coming back in 2020 for a 17th season.  In 2018, he was easily the best of his draft class counterparts, but in 2020, he will be 38 years old, will be coming off of major elbow surgery, and he will not have played in an actual game since September, 2019.  the Steelers and their fans can hope that he will be as good as ever, but there are no guarantees.

Before I continue with this little essay, let me offer this Fun Fact.  In addition Eli, Phillip, and Ben, fourteen (14!!) other quarterbacks were drafted by NFL teams in 2004.  The most notable name among them was Matt Schaub, and two other recognizable names were J.P. Losman and and Luke McKown.  After that, you get names like Jeff Smoker, Casey Bramlet, and Bradlee Van Pelt.  None of them are going to Canton unless they buy an admission ticket.

Let's look at a few other guys:

Tom Brady  He is undoubtedly the greatest quarterback of all time, but this year he began to show some slippage.  Part of that can be attributed to the fact that his surrounding cast wasn't as good as it had been in the past.  He did lead the Patriots to a division title, but in the Playoff game against the Titans, he looked just like a 42 year old guy who just may have reached the end of the line.  His last pass in that game was an interception thrown from his own end zone that was returned for a touchdown.  He is now a free agent, and he says he wants to keep playing.  Can he help a good team that just needs an experienced quarterback as a final piece of their puzzle?  Probably he could, but it seems almost unthinkable that we would see Tom Brady in another uniform next year.  The picture of Willie Mays as a New York Met comes to mind.  Not that I love or even like the Patriots or Brady, but I hope that this doesn't happen.

Drew Brees  Like Brady, Brees had a good year, but he also looked like a 40 year old guy in the Saints playoff loss to the Vikings.  He says that he is "undecided" about coming back next year.

Andrew Luck  After missing all of 2017, Luck came back in '18 with a terrific season, but after yet another injury, he retired right before the start of the 2019 season at the age of 29.

Cam Newton  At the age of 30, one time league MVP was benched this year by the Panthers and will be playing elsewhere in 2020.

Aaron Rodgers  Maybe not fair to lump Rodgers into this category, because he had a very good season and led the Packers to a playoff win against Seattle, but he had a very bad first half against the 49'ers in the NFC title game, and his facial expressions and body language showed every bit of his 36 years.

On the other end of the spectrum were whole raft of exciting and young quarterbacks who appear to be ready to take over the NFL.  Leading the way are Patrick Mahomes, last season's MVP and probably the best and most exciting player in the NFL right now, Lamar Jackson, the presumptive MVP this season and deservedly so, and Deshaun Watson.  Maybe even throw in Baker Mayfield  into this mix if he can survive the mess that is the Cleveland Browns.  Then there a some guys like Russell Wilson, Dak Prescott, Matt Ryan, Jarrod Goff, and Carson Wentz, who have been around for awhile and could be factors for years to come in the NFL.


And finally, looming out there is LSU's Joe Burrow whom the Bengals, presumably, will take with the overall Number One selection in this year's Draft.

Yep, the guard is changing at the most important position in the NFL, and 2019 maybe seen as the year that this change took place.

Before I leave, let me speak as a partisan Pittsburgh Steelers fan for a moment.  If you've been paying attention, you know that the Steelers will be going into 2020 with a sure fire Hall of Famer at QB, but one who is 38 years old, and they will be in a division that will be requiring them to play two games a year for the next decade or so against teams led by Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, and Baker Mayfield.   This is not a hopeful sign.  Maybe Mason Rudolph will one day be the guy who will be the equal to these three Central Division rivals, but 2019 showed that he is still very much a work in progress.  There is also the very real possibility that the well demonstrated ineptness of the Bengals and the Browns could nullify the skills of Burrow and Mayfield.  In any event, the Steelers, who are aging in other areas as well as at quarterback, appear to have their work cut out for them in the next few seasons.

Thursday, January 17, 2019

A Tale of Three Quarterbacks


Pro football fans will all remember the 2004 NFL Draft when three quarterbacks were selected within the first eleven picks of the first round:  Eli Manning by the Chargers-and-then-to-the-Giants, Phillip Rivers by the Giants-and-then-to-the-Chargers, and Ben Roethlisberger by the Steelers.  Each of them lived up to their billing, and each of them achieved success in their NFL careers.  Each of them will probably,  eventually become Hall of Famers.

The circumstances of that particular convergence of QB talent in one draft was discussed much this past season when (a) it seemed that Eli Manning was struggling with the Giants over the past two seasons and may well be washed up,  (b) when Phillip Rivers led the Chargers to a double digit win season and the playoffs, and (c) when Ben Roethlisberger piled up impressive statistics while also throwing a lot of interceptions as the Steelers had a late season collapse.

So, of those three QB's, who was/is the best?  Which one did the most for his team?  Which one would you pick today if for your team if each was in his prime?  Such questions just screamed for a Grandstander Spreadsheet, so here you go (all stats are according to pro-football-reference.com)...


Ben RoethlisbergerEli ManningPhillip Rivers
Games Played216232212
Games Started214230208
Completion %64.460.364.5
Total Passing Yards56,19455,98154,656
TD Passes363360374
TD Pass %5.14.55.3
Interceptions190239178
Int. %2.73.02.5
QB Record144-69-1116-114118-90
Winning %0.6750.5040.567
QB Rating94.284.195.6




PLAYOFFS



Games211211
Completion %62.460.559.4
TD Passes301814
Interceptions24910
Record13-88-45-6
Winning %0.6120.6670.455
Super Bowl Record2-12-00-0

Like most sets of statistics, you can bend these numbers any way you'd like to make a case for one guy over the other two. Rivers has more TD passes and a higher QB rating, but a losing record in the playoffs, Manning has a perfect record in Super Bowls, Roethlisberger has more passing yards, has won more games, has a higher winning percentage, and has played in and won more playoff games.  All things considered, I'm glad that the team for whom I root, the Steelers, had Roethlisberger over these last fifteen seasons that either of the other two.

Oh, and just for shits and giggles, I thought that I would add one more name to the spreadsheet, that of a guy who is a contemporary of that 2004 triumvirate, albeit he has played nineteen seasons as opposed to the fifteen seasons of Ben/Eli/Phillip.


Ben RoethlisbergerEli ManningPhillip RiversTom Brady
Games Played216232212269
Games Started214230208267
Completion %64.460.364.564.0
Total Passing Yards56,19455,98154,65670,514
TD Passes363360374517
TD Pass %5.14.55.35.5
Interceptions190239178171
Int. %2.73.02.51.8
QB Record144-69-1116-114118-90207-60
Winning %0.6750.5040.5670.775
QB Rating94.284.195.697.6





PLAYOFFS




Games21121138
Completion %62.460.559.463.3
TD Passes30181472
Interceptions2491031
Record13-88-45-628-10
Winning %0.6120.6670.4550.737
Super Bowl Record2-12-00-05-3

Is there any doubt who the greatest quarterback of this century, if not of all time, is?  Brady has led his team to EIGHT SUPER BOWLS (and has a good chance of making in nine in another couple of days).  Let that sink in.  That is just an unbelievable fact, and I doubt that it will ever happen again.  Ever.

Oh, pro-football-reference.com also shows figure for "Comebacks" and "Game Winning Drives", although it didn't mention how they define the two stats.  Regardless, and given some intuitive thinking of what those terms mean, you may find those numbers of interest as well.


BradyRoethlisbergerManningRivers
Comebacks35312726
Game Winning Drives44423730

If you believe that a quarterback really and truly earns his keep late in the game, when your team is down, when their back is to the wall, and any other cliche you care to use, then you see that Roethlisberger, given four fewer seasons in the league, is right there with Brady in these particular categories.  However, we all know what the Brady-Ben record is when these two guys have gone head to head over the years, and it is pretty one sided in Brady's favor.

Just some numbers for you to chew on to make the case for your favorite quarterback, or a case against a guy you might not like.