If someone asked you on Opening Day that the Pirates would be 3.5 games out of first place at the Break, you'd have probably said, "Not perfect, but okay, I'll take it."
However, if someone had said that there would be not one, not two, but three teams in front of them at that point, that would probably have given you some cause for concern.
The Pirates now sit at 49-46, a pace that will get them 84 wins on the season. Not going to get you into the post-season.
Against every team except Milwaukee, St. Louis, and Cincinnati, the Pirates are 36-20, a pace that would get you 104 wins over a 162 game season. Terrific!!!
Against the Brewers (3-10), Cardinals (6-7), and Reds (4-9), they are 13-26, a pace that would get you 108 losses over 162 games. Terrible!!!!
The old baseball aphorism is "break even against the good teams, beat up on the bad teams". The Pirates are doing half of that equation, but it seems that the three teams ahead of them in the Central are just better than them. Maybe not by much, but a .333 winning percentage says a lot.
Does that mean it's over for the Pirates? Certainly not, but it's not going to be easy. Andrew McCutchen is going to need help, and the starting pitching needs to improve. It's hard to be confident in them, the pitching staff, as a whole based on the first 95 games. And what will the front office due to bolster the team come July 31?
I believe that there are 18 games left with the Brewers, Cards, and Reds. Is it possible that they go 12-6 in those games? They are pretty much going to have to do that, because I am not sure that they can maintain a 104 win pace against the rest of the schedule.
Just my quick & dirty thoughts.