Oscar Predictions, or A Night at the Oppie-ra

It is that time of the year for The Grandstander's predictions for the Motion Picture Academy's big pat-ourselves-on-the-back party, the Academy Awards, or, for short, the Oscars.  As I have stated before in this space, this is a year where I have virtually seen 'em all: all 10 Best Picture noms, 17 of 20 acting noms. all five Director noms, and 9 of 10 screenwriting noms.

Awards shows are a dime a dozen these days, but THIS one, the Oscars, is the one that still matters, the one show that I will not miss.  So, without further ado, here is how I see it playing out:

Best……	Predicted Winner	For Whom I Would Vote	Possible Dark Horse  Winner
Picture	Oppenheimer	Oppenheimer	Poor Things
Lead Actor	Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer	Cillian Murphy	Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Lead Actress	Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon	Emma Stone, Poor Things	Annette Benning, Nyad
Supporting Actor	Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer	Robert Downey Jr	Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Supporting  Actress	Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers	Da’Vine Joy Randolph	America Ferrero, Barbie
Director	Christopher Nolen, Oppenheimer	Christopher Nolen	No One
Original Screenplay	Maestro	The Holdovers	The Holdovers
Adapted Screenplay	American Fiction	Oppenheimer	Barbie

Some random thoughts and comments....

• Going to be a big night for "Oppenheimer", and deservedly so.  I recently watched this for a second time, and it confirmed all of the opinions that I had of it when I saw it last July.  Both Murphy and Downey, especially Murphy, will be most deserving winners.  If any actor carried a movie in 223, it was Cillian Murphy.
• That said, I've loved Paul Giamatti in everything I've ever seen him in, and he was great in "The Holdovers".
• Lily Gladstone has won all the awards leading up to the Oscars, so this appears to be a no brainer.  However, I have seen all five of the Best Actress category, and in my opinion Gladstone ranks fifth among them.  Annette Bening, Sandra Huller, Carey Mulligan, and Emma Stone all were terrific in their roles, and each of them would be a deserving winner.
• "Maestro", which I have subtitled The Bradley Cooper Vanity Project, has garnered three nominations for Cooper: Actor, Director, and Original Screenplay.  I'm saying that the Academy gives Cooper his Oscar in the Screenwriting category.
• I say that the Academy recognizes the very good movie "American Fiction" with the Adapted Screenplay award.  However, following the same logic used for Cooper above, I won't be surprised if Greta Gerwig, who was one again snubbed in the Director category, will get rewarded for her work as the screenwriter for the year's biggest blockbuster, "Barbie".

Enjoy the show.  I'll be back on Monday with the Oscars Post Mortem.