Wow, Has It Gotten Ugly!

I am referring, of course, to the precipitous decline of the Pittsburgh Pirates over the last two weeks. Just think, at that point they were 51-44 and in first place. Today, they are riding an horrendous 10 game losing streak, are 54-59 and are in fourth place, ten games out of first.

As Fred Williard once said. "Wha' happened???"

I will refer you to three pieces today, Gene Collier's column in the PG, Dejan Kovacevic's column in the Trib, and Bob Smizik's blog post at post-gazette.com. Each of these sum up the situation very well, and Dejan, particularly, advises as to what our expectations should be, and, perhaps more importantly, should have been all along.

My own thoughts are that it is now obvious that this team, which, lest we forget, lost 105 games last year, significantly over-achieved during the first two-thirds of the season. The pitching staff in particular were over-achievers during that stretch. The offensive attack never was very good, and now that the pitching has come to earth, that is becoming more and more apparent.

And some questions:

• Was it all about Alex Presley? The team's ascent began when he arrived, and it's descent began when he went on the DL. He may end up being this year's version of Chris Duffy, but it sure will be nice when he gets back.


• Where's Joel Hanrahan? Clint Hurdle's curious non-use of Hanrahan during this losing stretch has been well documented. One of the curses of current day baseball is that "closers" are used ONLY in save situations. As DK points out today, it's about wins, not saves.


• Pedro Alvarez. I tell you, I have NO IDEA what should be done with this guy. Last year, it looked like we had a possible new version Willie Stargell on hand. This year....it's just a mess.

Now that the division title appears to be out of reach, perhaps we should get back to some more realistic goals for a team coming off a 105 loss season. I said at the beginning of the year that 70 wins should earn Hurdle Manager of the Year honors, as it would represent a 13 game improvement over 2010. They can do that by going 16-33 the rest of the way. This is doable, and I would bet on it happening, but it would be disappointing in light of how the first 2/3 of the season played out.

So why not shoot for ending the 18 year losing stretch (again, read Dejon's column)? 82-80 would be a 25 game improvement. THAT would be a remarkable accomplishment. They can do that by going 28-21. That will not be easy in light of all the games they have remaining against the Cardinals and Brewers, but it is possible, and it can be done by not laying down and dying every time they play Milwaukee, as they have for the last five years or so.

I will offer one other prediction here. If this losing trend does continue, I would foresee an August 31 waiver/trade involving Paul Maholm. He stayed here past the July 31 deadline only because the Pirates were flirting with first place. With that goal no longer in sight, I can't see Paul and his $9+ million salary option for next season being picked up. Trading him for some warm body (which is about all you would get in an august 31 deal) would be better than releasing him (remember Matt Capps?) in the winter, although any way you dress it up, it will have "Salary Dump" written all over it.

Also, the Pirates will have to consider trading some of this "wealth" of pitching talent for a legitimate major league hitter in the off-season, especially if Alvarez continues to flame out. If that means giving up Stetson Allie or someone of that ilk, so be it. Oh, and by "legitimate," I don't mean another version of Adam LaRoche or Lyle Overbay.