2013 Pirates Predictions. How Did I Do?

Most prognosticators will only tell you about the predictions that they got right.  Not The Grandstander.  I will let you know when I screw up.  With that in mind, let us go back to the post of March 28, 2013 when I laid out my Pirates predictions for the 2013 season that was about to begin.  Passages from that post will be in blue ink below, with current comments in red ink.

I am optimistic about the everyday line-up.  I feel good about McCutchen, Alvarez, Walker, and the Jones/Sanchez platoon at first.  I am hopeful that Marte will blossom and be a good to very good player.  I am reasonably hopeful that Russell Martin will be enough of an improvement over last year to be considered a Plus for the team.  Barmes at short rates nothing more than a "Meh" from me.  He won't kill you in the field, but, man he needs to be more than the automatic out he was for much of last year.  Right field remains a question mark.  I hope that Travis Snider and/or Jose Tabata can emerge to be more than the mediocrity that manned that position last year.  I hope that their play will not force the Pirates to play Garrett Jones in RF.  That would upset the balance of the platoon situation at 1B, which I feel could be a strong point for the team.

Well, I feel like I got it right about McCutchen, Alvarez, Marte, and Martin, although it would have been nice for Marte to avoid injury and play 150 games or so.  The Jones/Sanchez platoon never worked out as hoped due to the disappointing year from Jones, who I now believe has seen his last days as a Pirate.  Walker was okay, but his inability to hit from the right side of the plate this year was a bit alarming.  I stand by what I wrote of Barmes, and am happy with the emergence of Jordy Mercer. Right field remained a question mark until Neal Huntington traded for Marlon Byrd at the August 31 deadline.

 OK, that brings us to the pitching staff..... In 2013, the Pirates pitching staff will include Jonathan Sanchez (1-9, 8.07 ERA in 2012) and Jeanmar Gomez (5-8, 5.96).  While Gomez may be nothing more than a long relief mop-up, garbage time last-guy-in-the-bullpen type, Sanchez is going to be one of the STARTING PITCHERS.  Does that tell you all you need to know about where the Pirates are headed this season?

Gomez did some spot starting and generally assumed the role described above, and he delivered more that anyone probably expected of him.  Sanchez bombed and was released early in the season.

Let's look at the starting rotation as of Opening Day:

A.J. Burnett - I feel good about him as the lead starter.  On the other hand, he is 36 years old.  Pretty much on target there.

Wandy Rodriguez - Another guy I feel good about.  I think that he and Burnett could provide a solid 1-2 punch in the rotation.  Injuries curtailed what looked like a promising season.

James McDonald - Need I say more about his Jekyll-and-Hyde 2012?  How much faith does that give you?  A question mark, at best.  The lack of faith was justified.  Injured, ineffective, and eventually DFA'd.

Jonathan Sanchez - At the outset of Spring Training I said, "Sure, it doesn't hurt bringing warm bodies like Sanchez into camp.  It's if they end up making the team is when you might have a problem."  I may be proven wrong, but for now I'll stand by that statement.  Sanchez pitched well in spring and earned his shot in the rotation, but bombed when it counted and, to his credit, Huntington dumped him quickly.

Jeff Locke - Well, critics have been saying for years let's give the young guys a shot, so let's be open minded on young Mr. Locke, but in the Post-Gazette story this morning, Michael Sanserino wrote : "In a four-man battle for what eventually turned into two open spots in the rotation, Locke was never the most impressive player on the mound in terms of the quality of his pitches."  Talk about damning with faint praise.  Locke earned his stripes in his All-Star first half, and should be considered a part of the rotation when Spring training opens in 2014, but his JMac-like second half does raise questions.

Of course, the NHR tells you that waiting in the wings come late May or early June are Jeff Karstens, Francisco Liriano, and Charlie Morton.  All have shown signs at one point or another of being good pitchers, but they ain't Maddox, Glavine, and Smoltz either.  Liriano and Morton may not be Maddox and Glavine but they were pretty damn good once they recovered from injury and joined the rotation.  Liriano will probably be Comeback Player of the Year, and Morton looks like a solid starter for years to come.  As for Karstens, well, two out of three ain't bad, and we may not see him pitch in Pittsburgh again.

And of course, the biggest pitching elephant in the room is Gerrit Cole.  See the post I made a few days back (October 10)  on Gerrit Cole.  No need to elaborate further on his impact on the Pirates, in 2013 and beyond.

So what's the bottom line?  Given the competition in the Central Division (Reds, Cardinals, Brewers), I don't see a post season berth for the Bucs, so that begs the question, can 82 wins be achieved to end the WRLS?  When I look at the eight man line-up, I think, yes, it will end this year.  Then I look at all the question marks on the pitching staff, and I say, it's not gonna happen.  - OK, how smart was I?  It was the pitching and not necessarily the eight man line up that got it done for the Bucs this year. -  Beyond Burnett, Rodriguez, and MacDonald (and even he is a huge question mark), I don't see the guys beyond them - Sanchez, Locke, Liriano, Karstens, and Morton - getting it done.  Maybe Cole will be the savior, but will he arrive soon enough?  I was wrong on Locke, Liriano, and Morton, but I did get it right about Cole.

So, my call for 2013? Seventy-nine (79) wins, same as last year and the WRLS goes to 21.  I really, REALLY hope I'm wrong, but I'm just not feeling it.  I will be more than happy to celebrate the 82nd victory, and I'll even have a glass of Neal Kool-Aid should the team contend for the post-season deep into September, but, as I say, I'm just not feeling it.

Well, happily, I was wrong.  The Streak ended, they won 94 games, won the Wild Card Game, and extended the Cardinals to the full five games in the LDS.  Not only am I drinking the Neal Kool-Aid, I have stated here in this blog that the time to stop the Huntington Criticism has come to an end.  Oh, that doesn't mean that we will always agree with every particular move, but in 2013, it became obvious that "The Plan" that Nutting-Coonelly-Huntington began back in 2007, and stuck to despite enormous criticism, worked and, we hope, will continue to work in the years ahead.  In fact, Huntington will probably be maned the Executive of the Year in MLB for 2013, and it will be a well deserved honor.

Well, that's pretty much it for looking back on 2013.  It was a fantastic season.  Plenty of time in the future for Hot Stove ramblings on the Pirates in 2014.