It's Oscar Time!!

I needn't tell you that this coming Sunday night is that annual night when Hollywood congratulates and pats itself on the back - Academy Awards Night.  For all the self-congratulatory b.s. that takes place on that night, it is still the "Granddaddy of All Awards Shows", and it is the one such show that I will watch from beginning to end.

As I have done in past years, I will offer you my predictions for the winners in eight categories. The number in the parenthesis is the number of the nominees in the category that I have actually seen.  Actually, all of the various awards shows leading up to the Oscars (Golden Globes, SAG, PGA, DGA) serve as indicators of how the Academy will vote.  It makes predicting these rather simple (sometimes), and it often leads to a dull and predictable Oscar show, but what the hell. You never know when a Jack Palance will do one armed push-ups on stage, or whether or not Warren Beatty will open the wrong envelope, so you gotta watch anyway.

Here goes....

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY (2) - I'm calling this for Quentin Tarantino for Once Upon A Time...In Hollywood, as this will be a way to honor him if they don't award him the Director Oscar (as has happened to him twice in the past).  Dark horses in this one: Sam Mendes and Krysty Wilson-Cairns for 1917 and Rain Johnson for Knives Out.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY (4) - Greta Gerwig for Little Women.  A way to make up for snubbing her for a Best Director nomination.

DIRECTOR (4) - I think this comes down to either Tarantino or Sam Mendes for 1917.  Mendes has won all the significant awards leading up to this point, but I think that Hollywood will honor a movie that is, essentially, about Hollywood itself and give one of their favorites his first Oscar in this category, so I'm calling this one for Quentin Tarantino.

SUPPORTING ACTOR (5) - In a category that is loaded with Oscar winners (Hanks, Hopkins, Pacino, and Pesci), Brad Pitt, who has won as a Producer, gets his first Acting Oscar for Once Upon A Time...In Hollywood.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS (1) - Thus is the category that I am least qualified to judge, so I am only going by what the previous awards' tea leaves spell out: Laura Dern wins for Marriage Story.

ACTOR (3) - This one seems to be a slam dunk for Joaquin Phoenix for Joker.  He played a loathsome character in a loathsome movie (at least to me), but he played it extremely well, so his victory seems inexorable.

ACTRESS (2) - I have to say that I would love to see my favorite young actress Saoirse Ronan win for Little Women, but I cannot deny that Renee Zellweger's portrayal of Judy Garland in Judy is fully deserving of the Oscar that she will win on Sunday night.

PICTURE (6 of the nine nominees) - The movie Joker received the most overall nominations this year with eleven, and I have to say that I just can't see it.  I found it to be an ugly and grim movie, but, as my pal Bill Montrose used to say, what the hell do I know?  My Number One and Two favorite movies of the year were Once Upon A Time...In Hollywood and Little Women, and I would be delighted if either of those movies took home the Best Picture Award.  However, every indicator seems to say that 1917 will take home the grand prize this year, so that is my prediction as well.  It's not my choice, but it will not be an undeserving winner, either.

So there you go.  As always, watch, but don't bet.

Oh, and I have also done in event years, let me stir up some memories by looking back at past Oscar winners in ten year intervals (Best Picture, Actor, Actress)

2009

The Hurt Locker

Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart

Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side

1999

American Beauty

Kevin Spacey, American Beauty

Hillary Swank, Boys Don't Cry

1989

Driving Miss Daisy

Daniel Day-Lewis, My Left Foot

Jessica Tandy, Driving Miss Daisy

1979

Kramer vs. Kramer

Dustin Hoffman, Kramer v. Kramer

Sally Field, Norma Rae

1969

Midnight Cowboy

John Wayne, True Grit

Maggie Smith, The Prime of Miss Jean Brody

1959

Ben-Hur

Charlton Heston, Ben-Hur

Simone Signoret, Room At The Top

1949

All the King's Men

Broderick Crawford, All The King's Men

Olivia de Havilland, The Heiress

1939

Gone With the Wind

Robert Donat, Goodbye, Mr. Chips

Vivian Leigh, Gone With the Wind

1929

The Broadway Melody

Warner Baxter, The Cisco Kid

Mary Pickford, Coquette