Quarterbacks at #1 Overall - From Bradshaw to Burrow

Terry Bradshaw

#1 in 1970

In the endless discussions leading up to the NFL Draft that began last night, I heard former QB and current CBS analyst Gary Danielson mention a fact that caused me to do some research.  If Joe Burrow were to be taken at Overall #1, which he was, he would become the twenty-fifth quarterback taken in that all-important, sure-to-be-a-superstar-so-don't-screw-this-pick-up slot, since 1970.  That year essentially marked the post NFL-AFL merger, so it is a good place to begin the discussion.  

Joe Burrow

#1 in 2020

Of those 24 QB's taken, how many of them went on to be certified superstar, Hall of Fame players, asked Danielson?  

The answer to that question called for a Grandstander Spreadsheet, and it might surprise you. 

2020	Joe Burrow	Bengals	2002	David Carr	Texans
2019	Kyler Murray	Cardinals	2001	Michael Vick	Falcons
2018	Baker Mayfield	Browns	1999	Tim Couch	Browns
2016	Jared Goff	Rams	1998	Peyton Manning	Colts
2015	Jameis Winston	Bucs	1993	Drew Bledsoe	Patriots
2012	Andrew Luck	Colts	1990	Jeff George	Colts
2011	Cam Newton	Panthers	1989	Troy Aikman	Cowboys
2010	Sam Bradford	Rams	1987	Vinny Testaverde	Bucs
2009	Matthew Stafford	Lions	1983	John Elway	Colts
2007	JaMarcus Russell	Raiders	1975	Steve Bartkowski	Falcons
2005	Alex Smith	49ers	1971	Jim Plunkett	Patriots
2004	Eli Manning	Chargers	1970	Terry Bradshaw	Steelers
2003	Carson Palmer	Bengals

So far, only three of those QB's have made it to the Pro Football Hall of Fame: Terry Bradshaw, John Elway, and Troy Aikman.  Peyton Manning will surely be in as soon as he is eligible, and Eli Manning is borderline, but those two Super Bowl wins may push him into the HOF, although it hasn't worked that way for Jim Plunkett, and the HOF jury is still out on those guys drafted in the last ten years or so.   Many of these guys had solid careers - Palmer, Vick, Bledsoe, Testaverde - but fell short of the superstardom predicted for them. Injuries have laid low a number of these guys as well (Smith, Bradford, and you could include Palmer in that category as well). By my count at least nine of these guys have played in Super Bowls, and I believe that Testaverde earned a Super Bowl ring with Dallas as a back-up.  

The really astonishing thing about the list to me, though, is the number of guys who were flat out busts in the NFL: Jeff George, Tim Couch, David Carr, and JaMarcus Russell.  Couch and Carr were drafted by crummy expansion teams, so you can argue that they never got a fair shot, but with all of the analysis, film studies, combine performances, endless Pro Days and coaches interviews, how can teams miss so badly and blow the golden opportunity that the Overall Number One pick gives you by selecting guys who turned into Poster Boys for Bad Draft Picks like Jeff George and JaMarcus Russell?  It boggles your mind.

Last night four quarterbacks were selected in the first round of the draft, three coming within the first six selections.  I wish all of these kids well, but there is a good chance that at least one or two of them will have, at best, very ordinary careers in the NFL.