NFL Quarterbacks in Transition 2020

The news that was leaked yesterday concerning the announcement that Giants quarterback Eli Manning will be formally announcing his retirement tomorrow, prompted me to sit and offer some comments that have been bubbling in my cranium (to use a Myron Cope-ism) for sometime now, and that is that the 2019 NFL season and post-season may be looked back upon at some future date as the year where an  "Old Guard" of outstanding and even Hall of Fame worthy cast of NFL quarterbacks gave way to a new wave of quarterbacks who will dominate the League for the next decade or so.

Let's begin with the three QB's who were drafted within the first eleven picks of the 2004 NFL Draft.

Eli Manning  Manning pretty much began showing signs of being washed up in the 2018 season.  The Giants drafted a QB in the first round last year, and Manning was benched early in this season.  His retirement comes as no surprise.  He was not the quarterback that his brother was, but he is a two time Super Bowl MVP, so his enshrinement in Canton is virtually assured.

Phillip Rivers  Rivers had a great season in 2018, and his Chargers made the playoffs, but his numbers were off this year, the team wasn't any good, and Rivers is an unrestricted free agent who undoubtedly will be playing with another team next year.  He might be able to help a good team who really needs a QB, but he is near the end of a good career.

Ben Roethlisberger  Big Ben left the second game of 2019 with an elbow injury that required surgery, and he was lost for the season.  He plans on coming back in 2020 for a 17th season.  In 2018, he was easily the best of his draft class counterparts, but in 2020, he will be 38 years old, will be coming off of major elbow surgery, and he will not have played in an actual game since September, 2019.  the Steelers and their fans can hope that he will be as good as ever, but there are no guarantees.

Before I continue with this little essay, let me offer this Fun Fact.  In addition Eli, Phillip, and Ben, fourteen (14!!) other quarterbacks were drafted by NFL teams in 2004.  The most notable name among them was Matt Schaub, and two other recognizable names were J.P. Losman and and Luke McKown.  After that, you get names like Jeff Smoker, Casey Bramlet, and Bradlee Van Pelt.  None of them are going to Canton unless they buy an admission ticket.

Let's look at a few other guys:

Tom Brady  He is undoubtedly the greatest quarterback of all time, but this year he began to show some slippage.  Part of that can be attributed to the fact that his surrounding cast wasn't as good as it had been in the past.  He did lead the Patriots to a division title, but in the Playoff game against the Titans, he looked just like a 42 year old guy who just may have reached the end of the line.  His last pass in that game was an interception thrown from his own end zone that was returned for a touchdown.  He is now a free agent, and he says he wants to keep playing.  Can he help a good team that just needs an experienced quarterback as a final piece of their puzzle?  Probably he could, but it seems almost unthinkable that we would see Tom Brady in another uniform next year.  The picture of Willie Mays as a New York Met comes to mind.  Not that I love or even like the Patriots or Brady, but I hope that this doesn't happen.

Drew Brees  Like Brady, Brees had a good year, but he also looked like a 40 year old guy in the Saints playoff loss to the Vikings.  He says that he is "undecided" about coming back next year.

Andrew Luck  After missing all of 2017, Luck came back in '18 with a terrific season, but after yet another injury, he retired right before the start of the 2019 season at the age of 29.

Cam Newton  At the age of 30, one time league MVP was benched this year by the Panthers and will be playing elsewhere in 2020.

Aaron Rodgers  Maybe not fair to lump Rodgers into this category, because he had a very good season and led the Packers to a playoff win against Seattle, but he had a very bad first half against the 49'ers in the NFC title game, and his facial expressions and body language showed every bit of his 36 years.

On the other end of the spectrum were whole raft of exciting and young quarterbacks who appear to be ready to take over the NFL.  Leading the way are Patrick Mahomes, last season's MVP and probably the best and most exciting player in the NFL right now, Lamar Jackson, the presumptive MVP this season and deservedly so, and Deshaun Watson.  Maybe even throw in Baker Mayfield  into this mix if he can survive the mess that is the Cleveland Browns.  Then there a some guys like Russell Wilson, Dak Prescott, Matt Ryan, Jarrod Goff, and Carson Wentz, who have been around for awhile and could be factors for years to come in the NFL.

And finally, looming out there is LSU's Joe Burrow whom the Bengals, presumably, will take with the overall Number One selection in this year's Draft.

Yep, the guard is changing at the most important position in the NFL, and 2019 maybe seen as the year that this change took place.

Before I leave, let me speak as a partisan Pittsburgh Steelers fan for a moment.  If you've been paying attention, you know that the Steelers will be going into 2020 with a sure fire Hall of Famer at QB, but one who is 38 years old, and they will be in a division that will be requiring them to play two games a year for the next decade or so against teams led by Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, and Baker Mayfield.   This is not a hopeful sign.  Maybe Mason Rudolph will one day be the guy who will be the equal to these three Central Division rivals, but 2019 showed that he is still very much a work in progress.  There is also the very real possibility that the well demonstrated ineptness of the Bengals and the Browns could nullify the skills of Burrow and Mayfield.  In any event, the Steelers, who are aging in other areas as well as at quarterback, appear to have their work cut out for them in the next few seasons.

A Tale of Three Quarterbacks

Pro football fans will all remember the 2004 NFL Draft when three quarterbacks were selected within the first eleven picks of the first round:  Eli Manning by the Chargers-and-then-to-the-Giants, Phillip Rivers by the Giants-and-then-to-the-Chargers, and Ben Roethlisberger by the Steelers.  Each of them lived up to their billing, and each of them achieved success in their NFL careers.  Each of them will probably,  eventually become Hall of Famers.

The circumstances of that particular convergence of QB talent in one draft was discussed much this past season when (a) it seemed that Eli Manning was struggling with the Giants over the past two seasons and may well be washed up,  (b) when Phillip Rivers led the Chargers to a double digit win season and the playoffs, and (c) when Ben Roethlisberger piled up impressive statistics while also throwing a lot of interceptions as the Steelers had a late season collapse.

So, of those three QB's, who was/is the best?  Which one did the most for his team?  Which one would you pick today if for your team if each was in his prime?  Such questions just screamed for a Grandstander Spreadsheet, so here you go (all stats are according to pro-football-reference.com)...

	Ben Roethlisberger	Eli Manning	Phillip Rivers
Games Played	216	232	212
Games Started	214	230	208
Completion %	64.4	60.3	64.5
Total Passing Yards	56,194	55,981	54,656
TD Passes	363	360	374
TD Pass %	5.1	4.5	5.3
Interceptions	190	239	178
Int. %	2.7	3.0	2.5
QB Record	144-69-1	116-114	118-90
Winning %	0.675	0.504	0.567
QB Rating	94.2	84.1	95.6
PLAYOFFS
Games	21	12	11
Completion %	62.4	60.5	59.4
TD Passes	30	18	14
Interceptions	24	9	10
Record	13-8	8-4	5-6
Winning %	0.612	0.667	0.455
Super Bowl Record	2-1	2-0	0-0

Like most sets of statistics, you can bend these numbers any way you'd like to make a case for one guy over the other two. Rivers has more TD passes and a higher QB rating, but a losing record in the playoffs, Manning has a perfect record in Super Bowls, Roethlisberger has more passing yards, has won more games, has a higher winning percentage, and has played in and won more playoff games.  All things considered, I'm glad that the team for whom I root, the Steelers, had Roethlisberger over these last fifteen seasons that either of the other two.

Oh, and just for shits and giggles, I thought that I would add one more name to the spreadsheet, that of a guy who is a contemporary of that 2004 triumvirate, albeit he has played nineteen seasons as opposed to the fifteen seasons of Ben/Eli/Phillip.

	Ben Roethlisberger	Eli Manning	Phillip Rivers	Tom Brady
Games Played	216	232	212	269
Games Started	214	230	208	267
Completion %	64.4	60.3	64.5	64.0
Total Passing Yards	56,194	55,981	54,656	70,514
TD Passes	363	360	374	517
TD Pass %	5.1	4.5	5.3	5.5
Interceptions	190	239	178	171
Int. %	2.7	3.0	2.5	1.8
QB Record	144-69-1	116-114	118-90	207-60
Winning %	0.675	0.504	0.567	0.775
QB Rating	94.2	84.1	95.6	97.6
PLAYOFFS
Games	21	12	11	38
Completion %	62.4	60.5	59.4	63.3
TD Passes	30	18	14	72
Interceptions	24	9	10	31
Record	13-8	8-4	5-6	28-10
Winning %	0.612	0.667	0.455	0.737
Super Bowl Record	2-1	2-0	0-0	5-3

Is there any doubt who the greatest quarterback of this century, if not of all time, is?  Brady has led his team to EIGHT SUPER BOWLS (and has a good chance of making in nine in another couple of days).  Let that sink in.  That is just an unbelievable fact, and I doubt that it will ever happen again.  Ever.

Oh, pro-football-reference.com also shows figure for "Comebacks" and "Game Winning Drives", although it didn't mention how they define the two stats.  Regardless, and given some intuitive thinking of what those terms mean, you may find those numbers of interest as well.

	Brady	Roethlisberger	Manning	Rivers
Comebacks	35	31	27	26
Game Winning Drives	44	42	37	30

If you believe that a quarterback really and truly earns his keep late in the game, when your team is down, when their back is to the wall, and any other cliche you care to use, then you see that Roethlisberger, given four fewer seasons in the league, is right there with Brady in these particular categories.  However, we all know what the Brady-Ben record is when these two guys have gone head to head over the years, and it is pretty one sided in Brady's favor.

Just some numbers for you to chew on to make the case for your favorite quarterback, or a case against a guy you might not like.

Speaking of Sports

Everyone knows of the struggles the Pirates have been having of late.  You know the numbers, 19-17 since the All-Star break, 4-7 on the last home stand, and on and on, BUT as of this morning, they are still 13 games over .500, in second place in the NL Central, and hold the second wild card spot in the National League, albeit by a slim one game margin.  I think that we can almost safely say that the disastrous total collapse that took place last season, will not happen again this season.  I think that we can comfortably assume that the 19 year losing season streak will end, and that the team will be in the hunt for a post-season spot until well after Labor Day.

Now, all that said, how about that 19 inning win in St. Louis yesterday?  Our Parish Picnic took place yesterday afternoon, so I figured that I would not see any of the game, and thus  would not agonize over it at all.  I would come home from the picnic and learn that they either won or lost.  You know what happened.  People with their smart phones at the picnic kept giving the updates: tied after eight...tied after nine...game's now in the 11th...the 12th...the 15th...and so it went.  (By the way, how long has it been since updates of Pirates games were of any interest at events such as church picnics in August?)  While driving home, I heard them go ahead in the top of the 17th, only to get home and see the Cardinals tie it in the bottom of the 17th.  Then came the 19th.  A loss could have been devastating, but a win felt positively euphoric.

The Jerry Meals demons have been exorcised!  Raise the Jolly Roger!!

Time to take care of business in San Diego.  The Pirates owe a little payback to the padres from events of last week, it seems to me.

*****

In other sports news, the Steelers had their second practice game of the summer last night, a come from behind win over the Colts.   

Here are my impressions so far:

• I do not feel real good about the running back situation.
• In last night's game and in last week's game with the Eagles, the Steelers had first and goal opportunities, whereupon they resorted to good old fashioned "Steelers football" and ran the ball, as Steelers Nation and Art III have been wanting, and in both instances, ended up losing yardage and settling for field goals.  I know, they're exhibition games, so who cares, but there are going to be times, many times, in the course of the season when the Steelers will need to score touchdowns in those situations.  So far, it hasn't worked out too well.
• Maybe Art III can find a clone of Fran Rogel and sign him to "run the ball".  
• I've already had my fill of the incessant navel gazing by the talking heads over the "new Todd Hailey-led Steelers offense".
• Oh, and Andrew Luck looked pretty good for the Colts last night.  He much have a pretty sharp offensive coordinator coaching him.

Maybe the best part of the game was the commercial with Eli and Peyton Manning where Eli shoves Peyton into a closet and Peyton yells "I'm telling Dad!". 

Big Win for Big Blue

The Giants win Super Bowl XLVI by a score of 21-17 with - deja vu all over again - Eli Manning leading a last minute touchdown drive to beat the Patriots.

Going into the game, I had no great emotional investment. I neither liked nor disliked either team enough to have a strong rooting interest. I just wanted a good, if not great, ballgame. On the surface, this game had all the elements of such a game. Two masterful Tom Brady-led drives at the end of the first half and beginning of the second half that gave the Pats a 17-9 lead, a terrific end of game 88 yard Manning-led drive that led to the winning TD with :57 left to play, and even a Brady hail mary heave that had you on the edge as the game ended.

Despite all of that, when it was all over, and perhaps it was that lack of emotional investment alluded to earlier, I was left with a sort of well-it's-over-now-bring-on-Spring-Training-baseball kind of feeling.

Also, when the winning touchdown in the Super Bowl is one that the defense let happen and the offense did not want to score, well it lends a kind of surreal feeling to the whole thing. The strategy on both sides for this bizarre happenstance can be defended - Bill Bellichick is a genius, after all - but something about it just doesn't sit right.

As for the other Super Bowl sideshows...

Madonna at halftime. Another aging rocker struts her stuff at the Super Bowl. Haven't we seen this before? Did you notice how she almost fell trying to mount one of those steps? Do we really need all this ridiculous spectacle and fireworks? If we really need a singer, how about bringing him/her/them out with a back-up band and a microphone and have him/her/them sing a few songs? Or, how about a dog and a frisbee?

Commercials. Twelve hours after the fact, I can remember the following: the cat killing dog for Doritos, the baby in the slingshot for Doritos again, the eTrade baby, "Wego" the dog for Bud Light, the Budweiser prohibition-is-over spots, the bulldog outracing the greyhounds for some kind of sneaker, the lady head-butting her husband over some kind of yogurt, the dog that worked out to lose weight for some kind of car, chimps in suits for CareerBuilder, and the Fiat commercial with some incredibly hot woman drinking some kind of foamy coffee drink. That's it. That's the list.

Oh, and one more note on commercials. Danica Patrick wants it both ways. She wants to be taken seriously as a major competitive athlete/driver and not be put down because she is a woman in a man's world, yet she continues to do commercials that tease us with the idea that if you go to the website, you just might get to see her naked. Which is it going to be, Danica?

Oh, and The Grandstander got his prediction wrong (see post of last Friday) and closes the NFL post-season with a 7-4 record. Not bad. However, in my pre-season write-up, where I listed about a dozen or so teams, one of whom would win the Super Bowl, the New York Giants were not included on that list. Not good.

Twelve days until pitchers & catchers report in Bradenton.

Super Bowl Prediction

So, I have been pondering the question as to who will win the Super Bowl for almost two weeks, and, more than any Super Bowl in recent memory, a case can be made for either team as the eventual winner.

Giants - Pros:

• A strong defense that got hot at the perfect time in the season


• Eli Manning has looked terrific in the playoffs, and proved in 49'er game that he can withstand even the fiercest of NFL defenses


• They have demonstrated a knack to beat the Patriots in recent years, most notably in the Super Bowl four years ago

Giants - Cons

• They seem a bit mouthy and over-confident


• They were only a 9-7 team during the year


• They lost twice, convincingly, to the God-awful Washington Redskins

Patriots - Pros

• They have Tom Brady


• They have, like it or not, Bill Belichick as head coach, and he's pretty good


• They have Rob Gronkowski


• Brady looked like he was from another world in the playoff game against the Broncos

Patriots - Cons

• They have, at best, a very ordinary defense


• Until they beat the Ravens two weeks ago, they had not beaten a team with a winning record all season


• Rob Gronkowski is injured and his effectiveness for Sunday is unknown at this time


• Brady looked very ordinary in the game against the Ravens

So, considering all of these factors, I had been leaning towards picking the Giants to win. However, something last night just clicked in my head and has told me that Brady is going tom take charge and that the Patriots are going to avenge the loss of four years ago and take care of business in Indy on Sunday. There you have it...the PATRIOTS to win on Sunday.

Should this happen, there will, of course, be some major angst among the Yinzers of Steelers Nation as this will mean that Belichick will now join Chuck Noll as the only head coach to have won four Super Bowls, and Brady will join Terry Bradshaw and Joe Montana (who played in the WPIAL, which is almost as good as being a Steeler) as the only QB to have played on four Super Bowl winning teams. Should the Patriots win, I predict that the first call to The Fan stating that Belichick's four wins "shouldn't count" because he "cheated by video tapin' n'at" will come in before midnight on Sunday.

Let's hope it's a great game, with lots of great commercials, and an entertaining performance by Madonna at halftime.

Enjoy!!