Quarterbacks at #1 Overall - From Bradshaw to Burrow

Terry Bradshaw

#1 in 1970

In the endless discussions leading up to the NFL Draft that began last night, I heard former QB and current CBS analyst Gary Danielson mention a fact that caused me to do some research.  If Joe Burrow were to be taken at Overall #1, which he was, he would become the twenty-fifth quarterback taken in that all-important, sure-to-be-a-superstar-so-don't-screw-this-pick-up slot, since 1970.  That year essentially marked the post NFL-AFL merger, so it is a good place to begin the discussion.  

Joe Burrow

#1 in 2020

Of those 24 QB's taken, how many of them went on to be certified superstar, Hall of Fame players, asked Danielson?  

The answer to that question called for a Grandstander Spreadsheet, and it might surprise you. 

2020	Joe Burrow	Bengals	2002	David Carr	Texans
2019	Kyler Murray	Cardinals	2001	Michael Vick	Falcons
2018	Baker Mayfield	Browns	1999	Tim Couch	Browns
2016	Jared Goff	Rams	1998	Peyton Manning	Colts
2015	Jameis Winston	Bucs	1993	Drew Bledsoe	Patriots
2012	Andrew Luck	Colts	1990	Jeff George	Colts
2011	Cam Newton	Panthers	1989	Troy Aikman	Cowboys
2010	Sam Bradford	Rams	1987	Vinny Testaverde	Bucs
2009	Matthew Stafford	Lions	1983	John Elway	Colts
2007	JaMarcus Russell	Raiders	1975	Steve Bartkowski	Falcons
2005	Alex Smith	49ers	1971	Jim Plunkett	Patriots
2004	Eli Manning	Chargers	1970	Terry Bradshaw	Steelers
2003	Carson Palmer	Bengals

So far, only three of those QB's have made it to the Pro Football Hall of Fame: Terry Bradshaw, John Elway, and Troy Aikman.  Peyton Manning will surely be in as soon as he is eligible, and Eli Manning is borderline, but those two Super Bowl wins may push him into the HOF, although it hasn't worked that way for Jim Plunkett, and the HOF jury is still out on those guys drafted in the last ten years or so.   Many of these guys had solid careers - Palmer, Vick, Bledsoe, Testaverde - but fell short of the superstardom predicted for them. Injuries have laid low a number of these guys as well (Smith, Bradford, and you could include Palmer in that category as well). By my count at least nine of these guys have played in Super Bowls, and I believe that Testaverde earned a Super Bowl ring with Dallas as a back-up.  

The really astonishing thing about the list to me, though, is the number of guys who were flat out busts in the NFL: Jeff George, Tim Couch, David Carr, and JaMarcus Russell.  Couch and Carr were drafted by crummy expansion teams, so you can argue that they never got a fair shot, but with all of the analysis, film studies, combine performances, endless Pro Days and coaches interviews, how can teams miss so badly and blow the golden opportunity that the Overall Number One pick gives you by selecting guys who turned into Poster Boys for Bad Draft Picks like Jeff George and JaMarcus Russell?  It boggles your mind.

Last night four quarterbacks were selected in the first round of the draft, three coming within the first six selections.  I wish all of these kids well, but there is a good chance that at least one or two of them will have, at best, very ordinary careers in the NFL.

NFL Quarterbacks in Transition 2020

The news that was leaked yesterday concerning the announcement that Giants quarterback Eli Manning will be formally announcing his retirement tomorrow, prompted me to sit and offer some comments that have been bubbling in my cranium (to use a Myron Cope-ism) for sometime now, and that is that the 2019 NFL season and post-season may be looked back upon at some future date as the year where an  "Old Guard" of outstanding and even Hall of Fame worthy cast of NFL quarterbacks gave way to a new wave of quarterbacks who will dominate the League for the next decade or so.

Let's begin with the three QB's who were drafted within the first eleven picks of the 2004 NFL Draft.

Eli Manning  Manning pretty much began showing signs of being washed up in the 2018 season.  The Giants drafted a QB in the first round last year, and Manning was benched early in this season.  His retirement comes as no surprise.  He was not the quarterback that his brother was, but he is a two time Super Bowl MVP, so his enshrinement in Canton is virtually assured.

Phillip Rivers  Rivers had a great season in 2018, and his Chargers made the playoffs, but his numbers were off this year, the team wasn't any good, and Rivers is an unrestricted free agent who undoubtedly will be playing with another team next year.  He might be able to help a good team who really needs a QB, but he is near the end of a good career.

Ben Roethlisberger  Big Ben left the second game of 2019 with an elbow injury that required surgery, and he was lost for the season.  He plans on coming back in 2020 for a 17th season.  In 2018, he was easily the best of his draft class counterparts, but in 2020, he will be 38 years old, will be coming off of major elbow surgery, and he will not have played in an actual game since September, 2019.  the Steelers and their fans can hope that he will be as good as ever, but there are no guarantees.

Before I continue with this little essay, let me offer this Fun Fact.  In addition Eli, Phillip, and Ben, fourteen (14!!) other quarterbacks were drafted by NFL teams in 2004.  The most notable name among them was Matt Schaub, and two other recognizable names were J.P. Losman and and Luke McKown.  After that, you get names like Jeff Smoker, Casey Bramlet, and Bradlee Van Pelt.  None of them are going to Canton unless they buy an admission ticket.

Let's look at a few other guys:

Tom Brady  He is undoubtedly the greatest quarterback of all time, but this year he began to show some slippage.  Part of that can be attributed to the fact that his surrounding cast wasn't as good as it had been in the past.  He did lead the Patriots to a division title, but in the Playoff game against the Titans, he looked just like a 42 year old guy who just may have reached the end of the line.  His last pass in that game was an interception thrown from his own end zone that was returned for a touchdown.  He is now a free agent, and he says he wants to keep playing.  Can he help a good team that just needs an experienced quarterback as a final piece of their puzzle?  Probably he could, but it seems almost unthinkable that we would see Tom Brady in another uniform next year.  The picture of Willie Mays as a New York Met comes to mind.  Not that I love or even like the Patriots or Brady, but I hope that this doesn't happen.

Drew Brees  Like Brady, Brees had a good year, but he also looked like a 40 year old guy in the Saints playoff loss to the Vikings.  He says that he is "undecided" about coming back next year.

Andrew Luck  After missing all of 2017, Luck came back in '18 with a terrific season, but after yet another injury, he retired right before the start of the 2019 season at the age of 29.

Cam Newton  At the age of 30, one time league MVP was benched this year by the Panthers and will be playing elsewhere in 2020.

Aaron Rodgers  Maybe not fair to lump Rodgers into this category, because he had a very good season and led the Packers to a playoff win against Seattle, but he had a very bad first half against the 49'ers in the NFC title game, and his facial expressions and body language showed every bit of his 36 years.

On the other end of the spectrum were whole raft of exciting and young quarterbacks who appear to be ready to take over the NFL.  Leading the way are Patrick Mahomes, last season's MVP and probably the best and most exciting player in the NFL right now, Lamar Jackson, the presumptive MVP this season and deservedly so, and Deshaun Watson.  Maybe even throw in Baker Mayfield  into this mix if he can survive the mess that is the Cleveland Browns.  Then there a some guys like Russell Wilson, Dak Prescott, Matt Ryan, Jarrod Goff, and Carson Wentz, who have been around for awhile and could be factors for years to come in the NFL.

And finally, looming out there is LSU's Joe Burrow whom the Bengals, presumably, will take with the overall Number One selection in this year's Draft.

Yep, the guard is changing at the most important position in the NFL, and 2019 maybe seen as the year that this change took place.

Before I leave, let me speak as a partisan Pittsburgh Steelers fan for a moment.  If you've been paying attention, you know that the Steelers will be going into 2020 with a sure fire Hall of Famer at QB, but one who is 38 years old, and they will be in a division that will be requiring them to play two games a year for the next decade or so against teams led by Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, and Baker Mayfield.   This is not a hopeful sign.  Maybe Mason Rudolph will one day be the guy who will be the equal to these three Central Division rivals, but 2019 showed that he is still very much a work in progress.  There is also the very real possibility that the well demonstrated ineptness of the Bengals and the Browns could nullify the skills of Burrow and Mayfield.  In any event, the Steelers, who are aging in other areas as well as at quarterback, appear to have their work cut out for them in the next few seasons.