"Sound of Metal" and Oscars Predictions

Today I watched the last of the Best Picture Academy Award nominees that I wanted to see, "Sound of Metal."  This makes six of the eight nominated films that I can check off as having seen.

Too many people whose opinions I regard have been telling me to see "Sound of Metal", and I can say that they did not steer me wrong.  It is the story of Ruben, played by Oscar nominee Riz Ahmed, a drummer in a heavy metal band who loses his hearing.  His reactions to this (seemingly) sudden loss, and his attempts to "learn to be deaf", make for a dramatic story.  It is very well acted, and it truly gives you the feeling of what it is like to begin to lose and eventually fully lose your hearing.

Perhaps the best example of this is the actual sound of the movie.  For much of the movie, you, the viewer hear the dialog, people talking, and all background noises as you normally would.  However, most of the time it switches to what Ruben is hearing: muffled noises, incoherent voices, and, eventually, nothing at all, and Ahmed gives a terrific portrayal of a person experiencing the frustrations, the anger, and the fear when such a loss occurs.  While I am no expert at the technical aspects of filmmaking, if this movie does not win the Oscar for Best Sound tomorrow night, then something is very, very wrong.

The Grandstander gives this one Three Stars.

Ahmed as Ruben and Olivia Cooke 

as his girlfriend, LouLou

********

So what are the Oscars without The Grandstander's Annual Oscars predictions.  Before that, though, allow me to list the six Best Picture Nominees that I have seen ranked by my own standards.  Keep in mind, I am not a professional critic, merely a movie fan, this is how I rank these six films from Most Favorite to Least Favorite:

1. Promising Young Woman
2. Trial of The Chicago 7
3. Judah and The Black Messiah
4. Sound of Metal
5. Mank
6. Nomadland

Okay, that's how I would vote.  Now, here are my predictions for what and who will actually take home the Oscar statuettes:

• Best Picture - Nomadland
• Director - Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
• Adapted Screenplay - Kemp Powers, One Night in Miami
• Original Screenplay - Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
• Leading Actor - Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
• Lead Actress - Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
• Supporting Actor - Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and The Black Messiah
• Supporting Actress - Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (this prediction made using the SWAG method)
• Best Animated Feature - Soul
• Best Sound - Sound of Metal

Ten picks.  Will make it easy to calculate my winning percentage come tomorrow night.

Academy Awards Predictions, 2016

Tonight is the big night for movie fans, the annual Academy Awards show.  The Awards this year are, of course, shrouded in controversy over the lack of diversity among all of the major nominees in the major categories.  What a year for the Academy to have selected Chris Rock to host the show.  Talk about serendipity!  I, for one, am looking forward to Rock's opening of the show.  It will surely be funny, and it will surely make a lot of people squirm.

But, on with the show, which means The Grandstander's predictions.

Of the eight movies nominated, I will have seen (after catching a matinee showing today of "The Big Short") five of them.  My opinions are just that - opinions - and are not fully informed.  My predictions are based upon those movies that I have seen, what I have read in various media, and how other awards have been handed out during this award season.

Three of the four acting awards are deemed to be pretty much a cinch, so I am not going out on any limb her by predicting that the Oscars for Best Actor, Actress, and Supporting Actress will be handed to Leonardo DiCaprio, Brie Larson, and Alicia Vikander.  It should also be noted that I have seen none of these three performances.

A word here about DiCaprio.  I think that he is terrific.  I have never seen him be anything less that excellent in any role that I have seen him play.  And while I didn't not see "The Revenant", everything that I have read or heard about his performance makes this one seem like a movie where the film makers and DiCaprio himself seem to be fairly screaming "Look and how I am acting  in this  movie."  I did see Matt Damon in "The Martian" and he was terrific.  In an understated way, he carried the movie and made it believable.  In his own way, I am sure that Leo did the same thing in "The Revenant", so I won't begrudge him his preordained Oscar tonight, but I am sorry that there will be no love for Matt Damon for what I thought was the best performance that I had seen all year.

The Supporting Actor Oscar race is an interesting one. Mark Ruffalo has been nominated for "Spotlight" and he was great in it (I saw that one!), as was Mark Rylance in "Bridge of Spies."  A lot of critical support seems to be favoring Rylance, and he would be a deserving winner, but the Academy often uses the Supporting Actor/Actress category as a sort of a make-up or lifetime achievement award.  I think that they will do it again this year and award the Oscar to Sylvester Stallone.

For Adapted Screenplay, I will predict that Nick Hornby will win for "Brooklyn".  This will be the Academy's way to honor this terrific movie.  For Original Screenplay, I'll go with Josh Singer and Tom McCarthy for "Spotlight".  However, don't be surprised if the Oscar goes to the writers of "Straight Outta Compton".  This could be a way for the Academy to answer all those embarrassing lack of diversity protests.

In an effort to pad my stats, I will predict that "inside Out" will win for Best Animated feature film.

Many are predicting that Alejandro Inarritu will win four "The Revenant", but I am going against the grain on this one since I don't believe that the Academy will go with back-to-back Oscars for Inarritu (he won for "Birdman" last year).  My pick on this one goes for Tom McCarthy for "Spotlight".

That leaves the Big One...Best Picture of the Year.  As I mentioned above, I have seen four of the nominees, "Bridge of Spies", "Brooklyn", "The Martian", and "Spotlight".  I will see "The Big Short" this afternoon.  The other three "Mad Max: Fury Road", "The Revenant", and "Room" fall into the category for me of "Didn't See It; Don't Wanna See It".  With all due respect to the filmmakers and the audience that loved them, they are just not my kind of movies.  Doesn't mean they're bad; just means that they are not for me.

So what movie would I choose if they gave me a vote?  Based on the four that I have seen so far, I would go in this order...#4 "Bridge of Spies", #3 "Brooklyn", #2 "The Martian", and the the winner would be...."Spotlight", but that's just me, and who am I predicting will win?

All forecasts and odds makers seem to say that it will be "The Revenant", but I am going to play a hunch and follow the lead shown by the Screen Actors Guild Awards and call for a Best Picture win for "Spotlight".

Terrific ensemble performance by everyone in this cast, a great story, and a true one.  

There you go...nine categories, nine predictions.  As always, watch, but don't bet.

Oscar Predictions

Yes, it is time for The Grandstander's predictions for the 2012 Academy Awards.  Let it be noted that I went 7-for-8 in my predictions for the Oscars last year, which says two things.  One, I'm better at this than I am at predicting the NFL Playoff games, and two, it ain't going to be easy to top that performance.  Nevertheless, I'm going to give it a go.

I am going to add a category this year, and predict the award for Best Original Song.  This award category has really fallen a long way down since the days when Henry Mancini was winning the Oscar every year.  Last year, only three songs were even nominated, so how relevant an award is this?  Anyway, there are four nominees in 2012, and I am calling for Adele Adkins' "Skyfall" from the James Bond movie of the same name to take home the Oscar.  This will also serve as a way to honor this terrific Bond movie, which, not so incidentally, wracked up HUGE box office numbers world wide.

For Best Adapted Screenplay, I call for Tony Kushner of "Lincoln" to win.  This may get pushed out by Chris Terrio for "Argo", but Kushner has been winning all of the other writing awards leading up to this, so his string will most likely continue in Hollywood on Sunday.

The Best Original Screenplay will go to Quentin Tarantino for "D'Jango Unchained".  Despite his not being nominated for Best Director, Hollywood loves Tarantino, and this is how they will honor him and his movie.

Best Director.  Perhaps the most discussed category this entire Oscar season due to the well publicized snubs of Ben Affleck, Tarantino, Katheryn Bigelow, and Tom Hooper.  All of the pre-Oscar directing awards have gone to Affleck, but, alas, he's ineligible for the Oscar.  So, this one goes to Steven Spielberg  for "Lincoln", and, the injustice of Affleck's snub aside, how can you possibly argue with such a choice?

Best Supporting Actress. I have seen only two of the nominees, Sally Field in "Lincoln" and Jacki Weaver in "Silver Linings Playbook", but I will call a win for Anne Hathaway for her nine minute appearance in "Les Miserables".  She has won every such award leading up to this on, and that trend will continue.

Best Supporting Actor.  All five nominees are previous Oscar winners, and while I wouldn't mind seeing Alan Arkin sneak in a win here for his turn in "Argo", this one seems to come down the Tommy Lee Jones, "Lincoln", and Christopher Waltz, "D'Jango Unchained".  Both have won important awards leading up to the Oscars, but I am going to use the SAG Awards as a bell weather, and call this one as a close win for Christopher Waltz.  

Best Actress.  The Golden Globe and the SAG Awards both went to Jennifer Lawrence, which would seem to give her a big edge for this one,  Also, I have seen it suggested that Lawrence might win this one not only for "Silver Linings Playbook" for which she is nominated, but also for her work in that bow-and-arrow, box office biggie, "Hunger Games."  My own preference would be Jessica Chastain for "Zero Dark Thirty."  All indications say Lawrence, who is quite charming, but let's call this one my wild card pick, and predict a win for Jessica Chastain for this one.

Best Actor.  Should Bradley Cooper, Hugh Jackman, Joaquin Phoenix, and Denzel Washington even bother showing up on Sunday night?  In the surest of sure things of the night, Daniel Day-Lewis takes home the Oscar for his amazing performance in "Lincoln."

Best Picture.  Of the nine movies nominated for Best Picture, I have not seen "Les Miserables", "D'Jango Unchained", "Life of Pi", "Amour", and "Beast of the Southern Wild".  At this point, I will wait to catch Les Miz when it comes on DVD, and perhaps, maybe, I will see the ultra-violent D'Jango on DVD as well.  Not a chance that I will see any of the other three.  So that leaves four nominees that I have seen, and I am confident that the winner will come from those four: "Argo", "Lincoln", "Silver Linings Playbook", and "Zero Dark Thirty".   

While I found "Silver Linings Playbook" a charming, enjoyable, and very good movie, it is certainly not the "best" movie of the year.  Absolutely worth seeing, but certainly not the Best.  That leaves three survivors, and I would be happy if any one of those three won the big prize of the night.  I believe that the controversy that has surrounded "Zero Dark Thirty", which may have led to Bigelow's non-nomination for Director, will also serve to keep this one from winning Best Picture. 

That leaves it between "Argo" and "Lincoln".   The non-nomination of Affleck for Best Director has been much written about and discussed, and I have mentioned it many time myself on this blog.  Both Affleck and the movie have been cited in numerous other award venues (Golden Globes, SAG, Director's Guild), and I think that the Academy as a whole will make up for the snub he received from his fellow Directors within the Academy, and that Producer Ben Affleck will get his Oscar anyway when "Argo" is called for the Best Picture of the Year. 

There you have it.  As always, watch but don't bet!