"Pirates Project" Suspended

Regular readers will recall my writing about my "Pirates Project" for 2021.  Simply stated, the goal was to see if one could make money by betting against a bad team, the Pirates in this case, in every game over the course of the season.

Through 133 games, the Pirates have indeed proven to be a bad team.  They are 48-85, a pace that would produce 104 losses.  That's Leonard Pinth-Garnell bad.  Very, very bad.

So, you ask, how has the betting gone?  Well, I have indeed made money, although not a lot.  Here is how it has broken down on a month-by-month basis:

	Amount Won/Lost	ROI
April	(3.83)	-14.1%
May	3.82	12.7%
June	3.66	14.5%
July	(9.25)	-25.0%
August	7.56	14.8%
	1.96	1.1%
	August total includes game of September 1

The "unit" that I have been betting on this Project has been $1 (sometimes more, sometimes less), but it could have been $5, $10, or $100 a game, the real number to look at is the Return on Investment, and at +1.1%, the effort it isn't worth it, so I have decided to suspend the Project after the conclusion of the Bucs' two game series with the White Sox last night.  I also am ending it because I have felt a little skeevy from the beginning about being in a position of wanting my favorite team to lose.  I never actually rooted against  the Pirates in any game, but I found myself feeling okay when they were getting their heads handed to them, like in that 13-0 loss to St. Louis last week, and that just wasn't right.

Also, from a purely analytical viewpoint, by betting strictly on the money line, any streak where you lose (in this case, when the Pirates win), you can get into a hole that is hard to climb out of.  For example, the Pirates started the month of August by losing 15 of their first 17 games.  It was shaping up to be a HUGE month for me, but they then proceeded to go 5-2 over the next week, and so BIG winnings became merely NICE winnings.  And in baseball, more than in any other sport, bad teams can beat good teams.  It happens a lot.  In July, the Pirates won two out of three from the first place Giants, and I never recovered from that in that month.

So, after 133 games, I have decided to stop while I am (barely) ahead.  However, I am leaving the door open to make some wagers in this final month.  The Pirates have a number of games with teams that are in the same relative boat as they are - Cubs, Nats, Tigers, and Marlins - and they could win a good share of those games.  There are also games with teams still in the Playoff hunt - the Reds and the Phillies - so there may be a few more wagers placed in this Project.  We shall see.

A more positive approach to something like this would be to pick a team that you like, and that you think is going to be good, really good, and bet on them to WIN every game.  Thus, the "Alabama Project" will begin this weekend.  I've heard it said that no one ever became poor by betting on Nick Saban every week, so that is what I'm going to do.  Taking the Tide on the point spread every week, starting with them at -18.5 against Miami on Saturday.  So......

"The Pirates Project" - Two Months In

Hey, Gang, remember when I wrote about "The Pirates Project" back in March, the wagering experiment that I would be conducting throughout the season?  Well, the Battlin' Bucs have now completed two months of the season, 53 games worth, and I am sure that many of you, at least one or two, are wondering, "Just how is that going for The Grandstander?"

Some raw numbers before I give you the results so far.

• The Pirates had a surprisingly good April, finishing the month at 12-13.
• In May, the Pirates became what we thought they would become.  They went 8-20.  Their record of 20-33 puts them on pace for a 61-101 record for the season.
• I wagered a total of $57.49 on the Pirates' 53 opponents to win on the Money Line odds.  Average bet per game was $1.08 with bets ranging from $.50 to $2.00 a game.  Most bets were for either $.75 or $1.00.

Here are the Year To Date results:

		Amount Bet	Amount Paid	Net
May Totals		30.90	34.72	3.82	12.7% gain in May
April Totals		26.59	22.76	-3.83	14.4% loss in April
YTD (April-May)		57.49	57.48	-0.01	Virtual break even for season

Yep, the Pirates put me in the hole after that hot start (for them) in April, and it took the entire month of May for me to dig out of that hole, but dig out of it I have to the extent that I have lost exactly $0.01, one crummy penny, on the overall project.  It's enough to convince me to extend the project for at least another month.  The Pirates have 26 games scheduled in June, which will take them to two games shy of the halfway mark for the season.   Should they continue to play more like they did in May than they did in April, I think that I will be writing in black ink when I next report back on this Project.

I also want to point out that, yes, I do feel a little skeevy about constantly betting against "my team", and that when I watch them, I am never cheering for them to lose.  Still, when they get outscored 33-3 in three games, as happened against the Braves last month, this little experiment is something upon which to fall back.