The Pirates, One Month In

The calendar has turned in to the month of May.  The Pirates have played 23 games.  No one has yet accumulated those 100 At Bats that Bob Prince always used as a benchmark, but let's take a look at the Pirates, one month into the 2012 season.


Safe to say that there have been three big stories thus far:

1. How good the pitching has been.
2. How lousy the hitting has been.
3. Pedro Alvarez.

First, the pitching, and it has been remarkable.  Staff ERA is 2.94, the fourth best in MLB.  Four starting pitchers have ERA's of less than 3.00, with A.J. Burnett, albeit in only two starts, clocking in a 1.38.

Then there is the hitting, or lack of same.  The Pirates rank 26th in MLB in batting average, 27th in OPS, and 30th, dead last, in runs scored, and not all that close to the next lowest run scoring team (Marlins and Nats tied for 28th). If you consider OPS as the best indicator of a player's offensive performance, and many do, then the numbers on the Pirates tell a sad tale.  I am not sure what the magic number should be in OPS (the equivalent number of a .300 BA), but in taking a quick glance at the MLB numbers from 2011, let's just say, for the sake of argument, that an OPS of .800 makes you a good player, and .900 or better makes you an All-Star caliber player.  For example, the top four guys last year were Jose Bautista 1.056, Miguel Cabrera 1.033, Ryan Braun .994 and Matt Kemp .986.  Guys like Joey Votto, Curtis Granderson, and Troy Tulowitzki all were above .900 and there were others.

With that as a benchmark here are what those 2012 Pirates with significant numbers of ABs are showing: Garrett Jones .763, Andrew McCutchen .750, Casey McGehee .710, Neil Walker .681, Alex Presley .648, and Jose Tabata .597.  Then there are the "Killer B's", free agent signees Clint Barmes and Rod Barajas who sport OPS of .467 and .432 respectively.  They've been killers, alright, but not in the way that the Pirates hoped, to be sure.  These numbers are not good, no matter how you slice it.  Some good signs in that Tabata has hit well in recent games, but McCutchen, who is batting over .300, has yet to hit a home run, and only two of Walker's 22 hits have gone for extra bases.  Barmes and Barajas have been complete busts at the plate with only 2 home runs and 2 RBI's between them, both from Barmes, and goose eggs from Barajas.  Neither is hitting over .151.  And neither one is distinguishing themselves with the leather either, although much lip service is being paid to Barajas' ability to "handle" the pitchers.

It has been said that the pitching cannot remain as good as it has been, and the hitting cannot remain as bad as it has.  We will see.  The pitching, particularly the starting pitching, continues to be top shelf, and the hitting has shown some sign of a pulse in the last couple of games.  However, the uptick in hitting has come, as Neal Huntington likes to say, in a very limited sample.

This leads us to Pedro Alvarez, and you may have noticed that I left him out of the names in the previous paragraphs for I think he needs to be treated separately.  For the first two and one-half weeks of the season, the question was "how can they keep playing this guy? he's a bust", or, as Ralph Kramden would say, he's a BUMMMM.  For the last week and one-half, the question has been "why aren't they batting this guy clean-up?"

Alvarez had a miserable start.  For the longest time, he had only two hits (both HR's) and was batting below .100.  In the last seven games, he has been on fire.  He now has 6 HR, 12 RBI's, both tops on the team, his BA has risen to .222 and the OPS is now up to .829.  He still strikes out a lot, and I'm not sure that will ever change (it never did for Willie Stargell), but Pirates fans are breathing a bit easier over Alvarez and his future prospects as a Buc.

And I will say this, of Pedro's 26 career home runs, none of them have been cheap ones.  When he hits it, he hits it a mile.  Very fun to watch.

The team now stands at 10-13.  A knowledgeable friend of mine said at the beginning of the season that if the Pirates won 15 games of their first 40 games, he would be "floored."  Which means that they would need to win only five of their next 17 games to reach that particular dubious benchmark.  Nothing is a certainty, but I like their chances.  Still, a 10-13 record projects out to a 70-92 record, which would be a step back from 2011 and disappointing.  However, way too early to start making those kinds of projections.

In conclusion, here's what I like so far: A.J.Burnett, Eric Bedard, James McDonald, McCutchen's batting average, Walker edging up on .300, and Alvarez' surge in the last week or so.

Here's what I don't like: Clint Barmes and Rod Barajas.  In my mind, there is nothing good that you can say about them so far.  Nothing.  It will be interesting to see how long the team will stick with these guys.  How can you stick with two sub-.200 hitters who can't field, either?

Would be nice if they could take these last two games in the Cardinals series, but I'd settle for one win.  And I'm looking forward to being at PNC Park on Friday night when the Reds come to town, and not just for the free t-shirt!