As it did two weeks ago at the Golden Globe Awards, Ben Affleck's "Argo" was the big winner at the Screen Actors Guild Awards last night. At the Globes, "Argo" won best picture and, more significantly, Affleck was chosen Best Director, after his snub by the Motion Picture Academy. Last night at the SAG awards, "Argo" was awarded the "Best Ensemble Acting" award, the SAG equivalent of Best Picture.
And make no mistake, Affleck was definitely snubbed by the Academy. Last week I heard an interview with Stephen Hunter, former movie critic for the Washington Post. His thought was that Affleck is generally perceived as a lightweight "pretty boy" actor by many in the Hollywood community, who decided to try his hand at directing, and, lo and behold, he is very good at it and it seems that this is where his true talent lies. When it came time to nominate for Best Director, many of those directors who struggled through film schools and working their way up via numerous low level behind-the-camera jobs, obviously decided to take it out on Affleck, who they have decreed has had it too easy in his path to being a premier film director. Makes sense to me.
What does this portend for the Oscars in a few weeks? My own hunch is that "Lincoln" will win for Best Actor, Daniel Day-Lewis, Supporting Actor, Tommy Lee Jones, and that Steven Spielberg will nail the Best Director prize, but my guess is that the Best Picture award is now a horse race between "Argo" and "Lincoln". Hey, I loved both movies, but if I had to vote, I would ask myself this question: which movie am I most likely to watch again and again over the next ten years or so? If that's the criterion, then I'd have to say "Argo".
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