NFL Playoffs, Week #1, and the GCR, plus a CFP Prediction

Thoughts and comments after Wild Card Weekend.....

• With final scores of 24-22 and 23-17, the Cowboys-Seahawks and Chargers-Ravens games would appear to have been close contests.  They weren't.
• Biggest Egg Laid on Wild Card Weekend:  The Houston Texans who fell behind 14-0 in the first quarter against the Colts at home, and were never for a moment in that game.
• If Andrew Luck isn't the comeback player of the year, then they ought not to even have that award.
• Indy HC Frank Reich - who may well be the NFL Coach of the Year - needs to lose that beard.  Not to be insensitive, but he looks like a guy who stands at a busy intersection during rush hour and asks for your spare change while the light is red.
• Lamar Jackson may well be the Next Great Quarterback in the NFL, but his performance yesterday shows that he is still very much a work in progress.
• The poor kicker for the Bears is taking all the heat for that clanger off the upright at the end of the game yesterday, but this should be remembered: With the season and playoff future on the line, the vaunted Bears defense allowed the Eagles to march down field with under four minutes to play and score the winning TD on a fourth down pass with under a minute to play.  So, yeah, it was all the kicker's fault.
• I fear that if the Super Bowl ends up being Patriots vs Cowboys, the TV viewers will miss at least  third of the game because network cameras will be overloading us with owner's box shots of Jerry Jones and Robert Kraft.
• On at least three occasions during these four games, I saw punts and/or kickoffs returned for significant and meaningful yardage, something that I cannot remember seeing the Steelers do in all of this past season.

The GCR (Grandstander Confidence Ranking) only went 50/50 in picking the winners for Wildcard Weekend (right on Cowboys and Chargers, wrong on Colts and Eagles).  2-2 headed into next week.

And speaking of the GCR, here's how those rankings look after the first round.  Note that I have decided to go to a more conventional 1 through 8 ranking, rather than the higher confidence number through the lowest as I did last week.

1. Saints
2. Chiefs
3. Chargers
4. Rams
5. Patriots
6. Colts
7. Cowboys
8. Eagles

I know that I should be giving more love to the Eagles, but somebody had to be Number 8.  There are twenty-four other teams who WISH that they were #8 in the GCR.

That leads to the GCR predictions for next weekend:

• Chiefs over Colts
• Patriots over Chargers*
• Saints over Eagles
• Rams over Cowboys

* You will note that I have one variance in my predictions with the GCR.  According to the rankings, the Chargers should beat the Patriots, but I just can't bring myself to pick against the Pats.  Yeah, I know people have been saying that the Pats dynasty is beginning to crumble, that Tom Brady is showing his age, but until it actually happens, I just can't allow myself to pick against the Patriots in the Divisional Round of the Playoffs. Plus, I don't trust Phillip Rivers in this spot.

So there you are.  As always, watch, but don't bet.

********

There is also another significant football game to  be played tonight, Alabama vs. Clemson for the national championship in the final of the College Football Playoff.  An entire season of college football was played, we sat through weeks of hype and discussion as the CFP rankings were released each week, we saw two absolute stinkers played in the semi-finals of the CFP last week, so we could come down to this:  Alabama vs. Clemson for the fourth straight year in the CFP, the third year in the Final game.  Perhaps we could save ourselves a lot of angst and melodrama by just penciling in these two teams for this same game next year as well.

Well, if it is repetitive, we are assured of one thing -  a competitive and exciting game, as each of their meetings in the past three years' CFP games have been.  On can only hope after seeing those two clunker semi-final games, and some less than compelling NFL games this weekend.

I am calling for an Alabama win, but I have discarded my usual "watch, but don't bet" advice.  While at the Rivers Casino last week, I visited the new sports book and  placed a $15 wager on Clemson getting +5.5 against the Tide.

Predictions

Not having the time yesterday to do a regular Grandstander post, I went to Facebook yesterday afternoon with Quickie Predictions for the NFL Wildcard Weekend Playoff Games.  Here is what I had:

• Chiefs over Titans
• Falcons over Rams
• Jaguars over Bills
• Saints over Panthers

(See, I could have changed that Kansas City prediction when writing this post, but I'm an honest guy.)

I will offer one other NFL prediction, and that is that the Jacksonville-Buffalo game could turn out to be one of the worst Playoff games that we will have seen in recent memory.  I mean, Tyrod Taylor vs. Blake Bortles?  Wow.

I will also offer a Bonus Prediction, this one on the CFP Championship game tomorrow night between Alabama and Georgia, and I base my prediction on one startling fact.  Whenever Nick Saban has gone up against a team that is coached by one of his former assistants (Georgia's Kirby Smart, in this case), Saban's teams have managed to squeak by with a record of 11-0.  

You just can't go against against a track record like that.  

Alabama over Georgia tomorrow night.

As always, watch, but don't bet!

Wild Card Weekend Predictions

Yes, it is time for the Annual Grandstander Predictions for the NFL Wild Card Weekend Playoff Games.

Raiders at Texans.  While it is ingrained in my DNA to never root for or, even worse, feel sorry for the Oakland Raiders, it is hard not to feel just  bit of sympathy for the Silver and Black this year.  After years of ineptitude, the Raiders had the look of a genuine Super Bowl contender this season, right up until QB Derek Carr broke his leg in the 15th game of the season. Then backup Matt McGloin goes into concussion protocol.  Now, rookie Conner Cook makes his first ever NFL start in a playoff game.  The Texans QB situation isn't much better, but they do have a strong defense.  The TEXANS  to win this one.

Lions at Seahawks.  After a good start, the Lions back into the playoffs after losing the final three games of the season.  The SEAHAWKS  win this one.

Dolphins at Steelers.  The Dolphs come into frigid Heinz Field, and the STEELERS avenge that early season 30-15 loss in Miami on their way to the Super Bowl.

Giants at Packers.   This may well be the best game of the weekend.  The Packers are on a roll, winners of six straight, but the Giants have shown an ability in recent years to overcome conditions at the Frozen Tundra of Lambeau Field.  The Grandstander plays a hunch and says that Eli outplays Aaron, and he GIANTS win.

BONUS PREDICTION - CFP CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

CLEMSON VS. ALABAMA.  I am going to guess that this game may well be more highly contested and more entertaining than any of the four NFL games that precede it this weekend.  An interesting sidelight of this one was Nick Saban jettisoning OC Lane Kiffen on the eve of this game.  Man, those two must have really hated each other.  And while Saban is not exactly the most lovable guy in the universe, I must confess a personal dislike for Clemson HC Dabo Swinney.  This traces back to a game last year, I believe it was in the ACC Championship game, when the Clemson punter made some horrendous gaffe in the game, and Swinney chewed him out as he came to the sideline.  That was somewhat acceptable, but then Ol' Dabo sought the kid out while he was sitting on the bench and then went totally bat-shit crazy on the kid.  On the punter.  Swinney is one of those pious guys who love to invoke the name of the Lord after Clemson wins, but then acts in just about the most unchristian manner imaginable and play tough guy with his punter.  It's not easy to make Nick Saban look like the sympathetic good guy in a given match-up, but in my mind anyway, that's what he is when compared to Dabo Swinney.

So, that's how I'll be rooting.  A Clemson win would make Pitt's season look a bit better since Pitt beat the Tigers at Clemson (remember that one, Dabo?) in November, but I just don't see it happening.  It will not be an easy win, but ALABAMA gets Saban his umpteenth national championship with a win over Clemson on Monday.

There you are....Texans, Seahawks, Steelers, Giants, and Tide are winners.  As always, watch, but don't bet.

Playoffs Prediction Time

Yes, folks, the National Football League Playoffs begin tomorrow which means it's time for the much anticipated Grandstander Playoffs Predictions.  Because we were on vacation for two weekends of the Playoffs last year, I offered no predictions in this space, which I know disappointed so many of you out there.

Quit laughing.

Okay let's dive into it.

Steelers vs Bengals.  One of these years, the Marvin Lewis and his Bengals are going to actually win a Playoff game, but until they do, I just can't pick them to win one now.  (Kind of like picking the Cubs to win the pennant.)  Ben Roethlisberger is having the best year of his career, and with him leading the way, the Steelers offense has been, with some exceptions, virtually unstoppable.  The running back situation for the Steelers is a concern, and the Bengals defense is formidable, but they are still playing their back-up QB.  So, the Steelers prevail and go on to Round Two.

Chiefs vs Texans.  The Chiefs have won ten games in a row, a very difficult thing to do.  The Texans won in a weak division.  I can name one player on the Texans (J.J. Watt), and I don't know who their quarterback is.  I'm picking the Chiefs.  Hey, you don't get insightful analysis like that on the NFL Network, do you?

Seahawks vs Vikings.  The two-years-in-a-row Super Bowl Seahawks started slowly this year, but came on strong, and, much like the Steelers, became the proverbial "team that no one wants to play in the playoffs".  The Vikings have looked very good thus far this season and are playing at home.  This is a tough one to call, and when in doubt, I go with the better quarterback, which means Russell Wilson outplays Teddy Bridgewater and the Seahawks win.  One thing is almost certain - with sub-zero temperatures, and strong winds, this game could be the most interesting game, visually, of the weekend.

Packers vs Washington.  Be honest now, back in September, and even six weeks into the season, how many of you saw Washington making the playoffs?  They played in the worst division in the NFL this year, yet they finished strong, went 9-7, and are actually favored to beat the Packers in this game.  Unimaginable.  Using the same QB logic that I used in predicting the Seahawks over the Vikings, you would think that in a dual between Aaron Rodgers and Kirk Cousins, that the Packers would be the choice, but over the last several weeks of the season, Cousins has been close to terrific.  So, I am going against the grain here and picking the 'Skins to beat the injury riddled Packers.

And let's go out one day further to Monday night....

Clemson vs Alabama.  As is often the case in the high echelons of College Football, Monday's Championship game matches two coaches, Dabo Swinney and Nick Saban, whom, all things being even, you would almost always like to see lose.  Still, I recall Swinney and his totally outrageous and over the top meltdown when he chewed out his punter after the kid made a dumb play in the ACC title game, behavior that made me immediately and intensely dislike him, so I know that I will be rooting for Alabama in this one.  Clemson has an outstanding college quarterback, but Alabama is, well, Alabama, so I am calling for the Tide to roll in this one.

By the way, if Alabama does win, that will be the fifth National Championship for a Saban-coached team.  If he pulls that off, does he not belong in the highest ranking of collegiate coaching pantheons?  He may be a dour and unlikeable guy, but he sure can coach, can't he?

So, there you are....Steelers, Chiefs, Seahawks, Redskins, and Crimson Tide.  As always, watch, but don't bet!