The GCR and Conference Championship Predictions

This coming Sunday is one of my favorite sports days of the year, the double header of the AFC and NFC Championship Games that will determine the Super Bowl participants.  The match-ups feature the Number One and Two seeds from each conference, so it promises to be a terrific afternoon and evening of football watching.

The Grandstander Confidence Rankings (GCR) as put forth in this space on January 7 held true throughout last week's four divisional playoff games with one exception: the #5 Patriots defeat of the #3 Chargers, but when it came time to make my predictions, I went against my own rankings and called for a Patriots win, so I believe I had that, along with the other three games of last week (Chiefs, Rams, and Saints).  So I brings a 6-2 prediction record into Championship Weekend, but first, the GCR as it stands today:

1. Saints
2. Patriots
3. Chiefs
4. Rams

My predictions will hold to this ranking:

• Saints over Rams
• Patriots over Chiefs

I especially look forward to the Chiefs - Pats game, and the Pat Mahomes - Tom Brady match up.  You could no doubt give me a sleeve length list of reasons as to why the Chiefs should win this game, and I probably could not make a reasonable argument against you.  However, I've seen the Belichick-Brady-Patriots movie too many times over the years, and I just can't bring myself to pick against them.

It's going to be a New Orleans - New England Super Bowl.  As always, watch, but don't bet.

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One more thing in The Grandstander Owns Up To His Screw Ups Department.

Since it was played I have not written at all about last week's College Football Playoffs Championship Game, but let me refresh your memories as to what I wrote about it in the aforementioned January 7 Grandstander post:

Well, if it (an Alabama-Clemson match-up) is repetitive, we are assured of one thing -  a competitive and exciting game, as each of their meetings in the past three years' CFP games have been.  

I am calling for an Alabama win, but I have discarded my usual "watch, but don't bet" advice.  While at the Rivers Casino last week, I visited the new sports book and  placed a $15 wager on Clemson getting +5.5 against the Tide.

Final score: Clemson 44 - Alabama 16.  Competitive?  I believe that I didn't have that.  On the other hand, I will be able to cash that winning ticket on Clemson the next time I visit The Rivers!

NFL Playoffs, Week #1, and the GCR, plus a CFP Prediction

Thoughts and comments after Wild Card Weekend.....

• With final scores of 24-22 and 23-17, the Cowboys-Seahawks and Chargers-Ravens games would appear to have been close contests.  They weren't.
• Biggest Egg Laid on Wild Card Weekend:  The Houston Texans who fell behind 14-0 in the first quarter against the Colts at home, and were never for a moment in that game.
• If Andrew Luck isn't the comeback player of the year, then they ought not to even have that award.
• Indy HC Frank Reich - who may well be the NFL Coach of the Year - needs to lose that beard.  Not to be insensitive, but he looks like a guy who stands at a busy intersection during rush hour and asks for your spare change while the light is red.
• Lamar Jackson may well be the Next Great Quarterback in the NFL, but his performance yesterday shows that he is still very much a work in progress.
• The poor kicker for the Bears is taking all the heat for that clanger off the upright at the end of the game yesterday, but this should be remembered: With the season and playoff future on the line, the vaunted Bears defense allowed the Eagles to march down field with under four minutes to play and score the winning TD on a fourth down pass with under a minute to play.  So, yeah, it was all the kicker's fault.
• I fear that if the Super Bowl ends up being Patriots vs Cowboys, the TV viewers will miss at least  third of the game because network cameras will be overloading us with owner's box shots of Jerry Jones and Robert Kraft.
• On at least three occasions during these four games, I saw punts and/or kickoffs returned for significant and meaningful yardage, something that I cannot remember seeing the Steelers do in all of this past season.

The GCR (Grandstander Confidence Ranking) only went 50/50 in picking the winners for Wildcard Weekend (right on Cowboys and Chargers, wrong on Colts and Eagles).  2-2 headed into next week.

And speaking of the GCR, here's how those rankings look after the first round.  Note that I have decided to go to a more conventional 1 through 8 ranking, rather than the higher confidence number through the lowest as I did last week.

1. Saints
2. Chiefs
3. Chargers
4. Rams
5. Patriots
6. Colts
7. Cowboys
8. Eagles

I know that I should be giving more love to the Eagles, but somebody had to be Number 8.  There are twenty-four other teams who WISH that they were #8 in the GCR.

That leads to the GCR predictions for next weekend:

• Chiefs over Colts
• Patriots over Chargers*
• Saints over Eagles
• Rams over Cowboys

* You will note that I have one variance in my predictions with the GCR.  According to the rankings, the Chargers should beat the Patriots, but I just can't bring myself to pick against the Pats.  Yeah, I know people have been saying that the Pats dynasty is beginning to crumble, that Tom Brady is showing his age, but until it actually happens, I just can't allow myself to pick against the Patriots in the Divisional Round of the Playoffs. Plus, I don't trust Phillip Rivers in this spot.

So there you are.  As always, watch, but don't bet.

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There is also another significant football game to  be played tonight, Alabama vs. Clemson for the national championship in the final of the College Football Playoff.  An entire season of college football was played, we sat through weeks of hype and discussion as the CFP rankings were released each week, we saw two absolute stinkers played in the semi-finals of the CFP last week, so we could come down to this:  Alabama vs. Clemson for the fourth straight year in the CFP, the third year in the Final game.  Perhaps we could save ourselves a lot of angst and melodrama by just penciling in these two teams for this same game next year as well.

Well, if it is repetitive, we are assured of one thing -  a competitive and exciting game, as each of their meetings in the past three years' CFP games have been.  On can only hope after seeing those two clunker semi-final games, and some less than compelling NFL games this weekend.

I am calling for an Alabama win, but I have discarded my usual "watch, but don't bet" advice.  While at the Rivers Casino last week, I visited the new sports book and  placed a $15 wager on Clemson getting +5.5 against the Tide.

Championship Sunday Predictions

The Grandstander had an awful weekend last week, going 1-3 in predicting the NFL's divisional playoff games.  That brings my post season record to a mere 4-4 (5-4 if you count the CFP Championship game).  So, not going to linger too long here.....

AFC

This is easy.  The Patriots will crush, yes, I said CRUSH, the Jaguars. This will only serve to make that humiliation that the Steelers suffered at the hands of Jacksonville last week all the more galling.  Blake Bortles may never be heard from again after this afternoon.

NFC

I want to root for the Vikings today for some reason, but I just think that the Eagles, back-up QB and all, will overcome and squeak this one out.  So that's my call - Eagles.

Eagles vs. Patriots in the Super Bowl LII in two weeks.

I won't make a Super Bowl prediction as yet, but I'll bet you know which way I'm leaning.

Playoff Predictions - Round 2

Taking his 3-1 record from last week, The Grandstander makes his predictions for Round Two of the NFL Playoffs.

Falcons vs. Eagles.  The Eagles played their way to the best record in the NFL, but lost the quarterback, Carson Wentz, who got them there late in the season, which is a shame.  Still, a lot of experts are saying that the Eagles are still a real good team, and that taking the Falcons in this one is a sucker bet.  Maybe, but I thought Atlanta looks pretty good last week, and they did actually play in the Super Bowl last year, and when you compare quarterbacks, Matt Ryan comes out way ahead of Nick Foles.  The FALCONS over the Eagles in the "Birds of Prey Bowl".

Titans vs. Patriots.  Do I have to expend a lot of verbiage on this one?  The PATRIOTS to win easily  in this one.

Jaguars vs. Steelers. Yep, I remember 30-9 last October, but do you think that the Steelers will be held to only three field goals this time? I don't.  Do you think that Ben Roethlisberger will throw five interceptions, two of them for touchdowns this time.  I don't.  It might not be easy - these Steelers don't often do "easy" - but I still see a comfortable win for the STEELERS this time around.  This sets up a Steelers-Pats rematch in the championship game, just as everyone predicted back in September.  Why did they bother playing a full season?

Saints vs. Vikings.  Could be the best game of the weekend.  I admit that I don't know a lot about the Vikings, but I read and hear that their defense is formidable.  Still, when I am not well informed, I will make my pick based on the quarterbacks, so I am picking Drew Brees and the SAINTS  to win this one.

There you go...FALCONS, PATRIOTS, STEELERS, and SAINTS to win this weekend.  Enjoy, and, as always, watch but don't bet.

Predictions

Not having the time yesterday to do a regular Grandstander post, I went to Facebook yesterday afternoon with Quickie Predictions for the NFL Wildcard Weekend Playoff Games.  Here is what I had:

• Chiefs over Titans
• Falcons over Rams
• Jaguars over Bills
• Saints over Panthers

(See, I could have changed that Kansas City prediction when writing this post, but I'm an honest guy.)

I will offer one other NFL prediction, and that is that the Jacksonville-Buffalo game could turn out to be one of the worst Playoff games that we will have seen in recent memory.  I mean, Tyrod Taylor vs. Blake Bortles?  Wow.

I will also offer a Bonus Prediction, this one on the CFP Championship game tomorrow night between Alabama and Georgia, and I base my prediction on one startling fact.  Whenever Nick Saban has gone up against a team that is coached by one of his former assistants (Georgia's Kirby Smart, in this case), Saban's teams have managed to squeak by with a record of 11-0.  

You just can't go against against a track record like that.  

Alabama over Georgia tomorrow night.

As always, watch, but don't bet!

Championship Predictions

The Grandstander brings a 7-1 record for Playoffs Predictions into NFL Championship Weekend.  Astounding!

In the NFC, I was amazed last week at both the performance of the Atlanta Falcons and the individual performance of the Packers' Aaron Rodgers.  It looks to be a set up for a terrific game with a lot of scoring.  It is hard to go against Rodgers, but I am going to play a hunch and choose the FALCONS to defeat Green Bay and make their second trip to the Super Bowl.

In the AFC, well, we all know that the New England Patriots are the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS, for God's sake.  Belichick, Brady, and all that.  Yes, they are formidable. Yes, they are favored, and yes, it will be huge task to defeat them.  However, back in September, I predicted that the Steelers would win the Super Bowl, and Tomlin, Roethlisberger, Bell, Brown, and a young and an improving-by-the-week defense are pretty good, too, so I see no reason to back away from that this late in the game. So it will the the STEELERS over the Patriots on Sunday, and a record ninth trip to the Super Bowl for the franchise.

If I am right, and we end up with a Steelers-Falcons pairing in the big game, I will offer a third prediction:  Endless wailing and gnashing of teeth from all the sporting pundits bemoaning the fact that there will be no match-up between Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers. Hey, I concede that those two guys are capital G Great, but have you ever witnessed such a slurp-a-thon as we have seen in the last week over two players? I mean...

This endless moaning will also lead to the inevitable speculation of "Who will even bother to watch a Pittsburgh-Atlanta game, when it could have been Brady vs. Rodgers?"

There you have it.  As always, watch, but don't bet.

Wild Card Weekend Predictions

Yes, it is time for the Annual Grandstander Predictions for the NFL Wild Card Weekend Playoff Games.

Raiders at Texans.  While it is ingrained in my DNA to never root for or, even worse, feel sorry for the Oakland Raiders, it is hard not to feel just  bit of sympathy for the Silver and Black this year.  After years of ineptitude, the Raiders had the look of a genuine Super Bowl contender this season, right up until QB Derek Carr broke his leg in the 15th game of the season. Then backup Matt McGloin goes into concussion protocol.  Now, rookie Conner Cook makes his first ever NFL start in a playoff game.  The Texans QB situation isn't much better, but they do have a strong defense.  The TEXANS  to win this one.

Lions at Seahawks.  After a good start, the Lions back into the playoffs after losing the final three games of the season.  The SEAHAWKS  win this one.

Dolphins at Steelers.  The Dolphs come into frigid Heinz Field, and the STEELERS avenge that early season 30-15 loss in Miami on their way to the Super Bowl.

Giants at Packers.   This may well be the best game of the weekend.  The Packers are on a roll, winners of six straight, but the Giants have shown an ability in recent years to overcome conditions at the Frozen Tundra of Lambeau Field.  The Grandstander plays a hunch and says that Eli outplays Aaron, and he GIANTS win.

BONUS PREDICTION - CFP CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

CLEMSON VS. ALABAMA.  I am going to guess that this game may well be more highly contested and more entertaining than any of the four NFL games that precede it this weekend.  An interesting sidelight of this one was Nick Saban jettisoning OC Lane Kiffen on the eve of this game.  Man, those two must have really hated each other.  And while Saban is not exactly the most lovable guy in the universe, I must confess a personal dislike for Clemson HC Dabo Swinney.  This traces back to a game last year, I believe it was in the ACC Championship game, when the Clemson punter made some horrendous gaffe in the game, and Swinney chewed him out as he came to the sideline.  That was somewhat acceptable, but then Ol' Dabo sought the kid out while he was sitting on the bench and then went totally bat-shit crazy on the kid.  On the punter.  Swinney is one of those pious guys who love to invoke the name of the Lord after Clemson wins, but then acts in just about the most unchristian manner imaginable and play tough guy with his punter.  It's not easy to make Nick Saban look like the sympathetic good guy in a given match-up, but in my mind anyway, that's what he is when compared to Dabo Swinney.

So, that's how I'll be rooting.  A Clemson win would make Pitt's season look a bit better since Pitt beat the Tigers at Clemson (remember that one, Dabo?) in November, but I just don't see it happening.  It will not be an easy win, but ALABAMA gets Saban his umpteenth national championship with a win over Clemson on Monday.

There you are....Texans, Seahawks, Steelers, Giants, and Tide are winners.  As always, watch, but don't bet.

Championship Predictions

Perhaps my favorite football day of the year takes place tomorrow, the NFL Conference Championship games.

The Grandstander went 4-0 in his predictions last week, and now stands at 7-1 in this NFL post-season.

I know that Tom Brady's Patriots are 2-6 in games at Denver, and I know that Denver has a great defense, and I know that just about everyone, including me, is hoping that Peyton Manning can muster up greatness just one more time, but I just am not seeing it.  The Patriots win it.

Every time I think of this game, I come up with a different winner.  One thing for sure is that if Carson Palmer plays like he did against Green Bay last week, there is no way Arizona wins this.  Plus, I just heard a commentator on the radio say that Palmer still has some of, and this is a quote, "the stink of the Bengals on him", and that makes it hard to pick the Cardinals.  However, when Palmer finally got around to throwing to Larry Fitzgerald last week, the Cardinals took over that game ( and they STILL almost lost). Carolina overwhelmed Seattle last week.  True, they did allow the Seahawks to get back in the game, but was it ever really in doubt.  I am going to do what I always do in a close game, and go with the better quarterback.  The Panthers to win.

There you go.  A Patriots - Panthers Super Bowl.  As always, watch but don't bet.

NFL Playoff Predictions - Part II

Before getting to my playoff predictions for the NFL Divisional Round games this weekend, let me recommend an article from this weeks Sports Illustrated (Alabama football on the cover).  It is the feature article at the end of the magazine call "Hello, My Name is Thomas, and I'm a Falcons Addict" by Thomas Lake.  In the article, author Lake recounts his lifetime, going back to 1991, of experiences as an Atlanta Falcons fan.  Even if you could not care less about the Falcons, this is a good read because, as Lake begins the article, he "could just as easily be writing about your favorite team.  You are loyal and unwavering.  Your team is your birthright, your fate, and you would never jump on anyone else's bandwagon.....Imagine our story, then, as a stand-in for yours - as an ode to a lifetime of hope and disappointment.  There is nothing more human than falling short."  Hey, us Pirates fans, we can relate!

I would also recommend Steve Rushin's "Point After" column on the last page.  Good stuff.

So, on to the predictions, short and sweet, after a solid 3-1 effort last weekend.  As I did last week, predictions will be largely based on the teams' quarterbacking strengths.

Baltimore Ravens vs. Denver Broncos

The Ravens win last week over the Colts was my only miss, but that ends in Denver on Saturday.  Andrew Luck could not take advantage of what has not been a great Ravens defense this season.  Peyton Manning will not have such poor luck tomorrow.   The BRONCOS to win fairly easily.  The big question:  Will Roger Goodell be on hand to give Ray Lewis a good-bye hug?

Green Bay Packers vs. San Francisco 49'ers

Aaron Rodgers vs. Colin Kapernick.  Need I say more?  Should be another easy win for the PACKERS.

All in all, a bad day for the Harbaugh Family.  A discount double-check, if you will.

Seattle Seahawks vs. Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons have to be the most underestimated, disrespected 13 win, Number One seeded team in recent NFL history, and I'm going to add to it.  Russell Wilson and the Seahawks just seem to be on a roll, so I'm calling for the SEAHAWKS  to keep it going and head to the NFC Championship game next week.  Although, I will say this, if I'm going to be wrong on any of my picks for the weekend, as I no doubt will be, perhaps this will be that game.

Houston Texans vs. New England Patriots

I am guessing that the Patriots will not undress Houston as badly as they did last month on Monday Night Football, but, really, does anyone think the Patriots will lose this one?  Maybe Tom Brady gets hurt in the first quarter, or maybe Gillette Stadium blows up like Heinz Field did in the Batman movie.  That's the only way the PATRIOTS lose this one.

As always, watch, but don't bet.

Calling the Championship Games

Well, when the playoffs began, I said that the Super Bowl would be contested between New England and New Orleans. I have a chance to be half right. Carrying my 5-3 playoff record with me into Championship Sunday, I make the following predictions:

AFC, Ravens at Patriots. I know that the Ravens play good defense, and defense wins championships, blah blah blah. I also know that New England has yet to beat a team this season that finished with an above-.500 record. And I know that Baltimore beat the Patriots in the playoffs at Foxboro last season. I also know what I saw last week when the Patriots completely dismantled Denver, another team that plays pretty good defense. I just think that New England is peaking at the perfect time and that even if the Ravens can somehow exploit a suspect New England defense, there is no way that Tom Brady loses in a shootout with Joe Flacco. PATRIOTS to win.

NFC, Giants at 49'ers. Talking about a team that is peaking at the exact right time, the New York Giants fit that description to a tee. Two very good defensive teams going against each other in this one, so I think the quarterbacks will decide this one. While Alex Smith surprised most everyone with that outstanding game against the Saints last week, I think that Eli Manning is playing at an elite level this season. In what will probably be the better game of the two, the GIANTS win at Candlestick.

This avoids the Harbaugh vs. Harbaugh Super Bowl for which the media hype machine is no doubt praying, but a rematch of the Pats-Giants Super Bowl of four years ago should be able to feed the Media Beast well enough.

NFL Predictions - Round Two...and Tim Tebow

Before attempting to build on my 3-1 record of last week, allow me a word or two on Tim Tebow.

I am much amused by the conversational train heard last evening on The Fan as to whether Steelers Loyalists should root for or against Tim Tebow this weekend against New England. The gist of all Yinzer thought was that (a) we don't like Tebow, because (b) he's a phony and (c) he's getting too much media attention and (d) he's a lousy quarterback who can't throw a perfect spiral and has a lousy completion percentage. To those objections, I offer the following:

(a) Not sure what there is not to like about Tebow. So he's a devout Christian. Good for him and he is no more in-your-face with his beliefs than is, say, Troy Polamalu. If we started making numerous and endless signs-of-the-cross and called it "Polamalu-ing", would that be okay?

(b) So far, Tebow has shown us nothing in his life to make us think that he is anything but the sincere guy he appears to be.

(c) We can agree that he is getting more than his share of media coverage, but it that his fault? Blame the networks for the Tebow saturation, including the gasbags at ESPN who yesterday were promoting a special "Tebow Roundtable" on Sports Center.

(d) Tebow may not be pretty throwing his passes, and if he is not a good quarterback, the NFL will catch up to him. That said, the so-called "lousy quarterback" ripped the Steelers to shreds last week, knocked them out of the playoffs, and left them for dead. Until the Steelers beat Tim Tebow, the Yinzers should just shut up.

Now, the games:

Saints at 49'ers. As you recall, I picked New Orleans to play in the Super Bowl, and nothing I saw last week would cause me to change my mind. I expect that the 49'ers defense will give the Saints a much tougher game than did the Lions last week, but in the end, Drew Brees will be too much. SAINTS to win.

Broncos at Patriots. Ahhhh, yes, the aforementioned Tebow against the Golden Boy, Tom Brady. As I said, the NFL may indeed catch up with Tim Tebow one of these weeks, and the Patriots bring, statistically speaking, one of the poorest defenses in the NFL to the table in this one, so I am not willing to concede that this will be the week that Tebow falters. He may well have yet another good game, like the one he had last week, but I think that Tom Brady will have a better one. PATRIOTS to win this one, but if the Broncos pull this one off, maybe there is something else at work going on here.

Texans at Ravens. The Ravens have shown an ability to lose games against teams that they should beat (Seattle, San Diego), however, they were 8-0 at home this season, and I think that the veteran defense of the Ravens will prevail over rookie T.J. Yates. The Texans were no doubt the winning team from last weekend that was least talked about in all of the post-game analysis, and I think that if there is to be a road team upset this week, it will be Houston that pulls it off. Still, I'm calling a RAVENS win in this one.

Giants at Packers. The Giants could be a classic case of a team that gets hot at the right time and makes a deep run in the playoffs, and Eli Manning is having a great season, but Aaron Rogers has had an other-worldly season. The PACKERS win and avenge that NFC Championship loss to the Giants of three seasons ago.

There you go. As always, watch, but don't bet.